[70kgman]

Just started posting on the forum. Consider myself a good NCABB capper. Having a great season so far. Probably will start sharing my plays from now until the tourney.

Usually make less than 10 plays a week, but lots of games stood out to me tomorrow on the big Saturday card.

Baylor (-4)
Samford (+5)
Georgia (-2.5)
Central Florida (-8.5)
Murray St. (-11.5)
Tulsa (-2)
Valparaiso (0)
Loyola-Chicago (-6.5)

[dknight734]

why samford? here's why i like woff

woff is 7-6 on the road and sam is 6-5 at home. woff puts up 69.4 ppg and sam puts up 57.7. sam lets up 59.5 ppg and wof lets up 61.9. it's 5 point spread in favor of woff. they haven't played each other yet the only real team woff has played in their last ten is charleston which they lost by 2 at charleston. woff is 9-1 in the last 10, while sam is 3-7 in their last 10. woff has avg. 72 pts in their last 5, while sam has put up 58.8. woff let up an avg. 57.8 and sam 64 in the last 5

[70kgman]

Posted the reasoning in the other thread. Here it is again if you didn't see it.

Samford have better overall offensive and defensive numbers (in the stats in those categories that actually matter) despite having the more difficult schedule up to this point as well as having played 3 more road games than home up to this point. I will take them at home getting 5 points. Wouldn't surprise me if they won SU. Wofford has been playing great lately winning 11 of last 12, I think the linesmakers have made adjustments to accommodate that but are giving them too much credit with that -5 line on the road in my opinion.

[dknight734]

which stats do u consider to be the important ones that count?

[70kgman]

Stuff like shooting percentage, and fg% against are far more revalent than PPG and that kind of stuff. I look at a bunch of different stuff. Not PPG though. That is a useless stat to cap games with in my opinion. Too many variables involved. Also PPG is mostly just an indication of their style of play, Wofford average so much more points a game than Samford is because they play up tempo and their games typically have like 25-30 more shots a game than Samford's slow pace low scoring games. The only area of the game Wofford seems to have an edge over Samford was rebounding, every other area of the game I give the edge to Samford. Like I mentioned in the other post, strength of schedule is also a huge thing to consider. Of course Wofford's numbers in general stats like PPG look far superior, it is because they have had a much easier schedule than Samford so far.

This is all just my opinion. If you really like Wofford, don't let my opinion stop you from taking them.

[THEGREAT30]

I like the Georgia play probably safer with moneyline on GA though

[dknight734]

well it's too late i took them when the books opened, so i can get the 5% juice on my plays for sat. i agree with what u said about the schedule i noticed that as well. all ur points are valid, but if a team has a better shooting % shouldn't they also be able to put up more points? and it's not that i'm trying to argue with u, i'm just trying to get an idea of what someone else is thinking. and out of all ur plays this is the only one we differ on

[70kgman]

No. Depends on the tempo of the game. A fast up tempo game with tons of shots both ways but with horrible shooting is still going to score a lot more points a game than a slow paced game with great shooting percentages.