1. 01-21-10 07:58 AM #1
    Dukebluejms
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    Dukeblue 1/21

    Hello all,

    Below I have listed my early morning leans. By no means will I play all of them. These are just the games that I have narrowed it down to, and I will pick only a few of my favorites.


    1. Louisville ML
    2. Under 129.5 Indiana vs Penn St
    3. Arkansas St. -4
    4. Arkansas +2
    5. Oregon State +6..5
    6. Utah State -4
    7. Under 122 USC vs Wash St
    8. Over 146.5 UCLA vs. Wash

    Anyone with some insight or comments? Or anyone wondering what my reasoning is, just ask.
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  2. 01-21-10 08:11 AM #2
    The Silver Fox
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    Like the Big 10 under. Stayin away from Louis/S.Hall, but I do think Seton Hall has the edge.
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  3. 01-21-10 09:17 AM #3
    Fiasco01
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    I've been looking at the Louisville/Seton Hall game and can't see any discernible advantage for either team, aside from Seton Hall being at home. I like Louisville simply because I've seen them play and they've managed to hang tough with some legit schools, but that's not really sound logic. So any particular reason you like Louisville?
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  4. 01-21-10 10:53 AM #4
    aceking
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    Utah State -4
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  5. 01-21-10 11:55 AM #5
    Dukebluejms
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fiasco01 View Post
    I've been looking at the Louisville/Seton Hall game and can't see any discernible advantage for either team, aside from Seton Hall being at home. I like Louisville simply because I've seen them play and they've managed to hang tough with some legit schools, but that's not really sound logic. So any particular reason you like Louisville?

    I'm not a big trend guy, but its hard to look past it sometimes. Neither team is great ATS this year (UL 5-8, SH 3-7), and SH is only 2-4 ATS at home this year. Both teams have struggled of late ATS, so something has got to give.

    • UL is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite of 0.5-6.5.
    • Pirates are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of 0.5-6.5.
    • Pirates are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big East.


    Sometimes you just have to go with your gut. Me personally, when I look at a game I look at 2 main statistical categories: Opponents FG% and Rebounding. Over the last 5 games SH is allowing opponents to shoot 52% from the field, while Louisville is holding opps to 46%. Neither one is stellar, but Louisville has the advantage there. Also, SH has been out rebounded on average over the past 5, while Louisville has a 6 rebound advantage. Having said this, neither team shoots the ball great from the outside, so it should be a driving to the hoop, slashing, inside kind of game and the team that controls the boards will come out on top. It's kind of scary that everyone is on UL now, but I'm going with them to win by 6 to 8 (UL wins 81 - 73).

    Hope this helps, but don't let me persuade you. This is my personal opinion. BOL
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  6. 01-21-10 11:56 AM #6
    Dukebluejms
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    Quote Originally Posted by aceking View Post
    Utah State -4

    Lets cash!
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  7. 01-21-10 12:12 PM #7
    iceaxe56
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    i have to go with the coach--pitino will have them ready--carsd have already lost too many this year--they are not that bad of a team--tonight they play someone they can eat--kinda like the georgetown/pitt game last night--you can only lose so much
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  8. 01-21-10 12:25 PM #8
    Dukebluejms
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    Card for 1/21:

    1. Louisville -1.5
    2. Under 131 Penn St/Indiana
    3. Utah St -4
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  9. 01-21-10 12:28 PM #9
    oiler
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    well i am going in a different dirction tonight,let me know what u think like louisville.but like the over in penn state and over in gonzaga
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  10. 01-21-10 04:11 PM #10
    Dukebluejms
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    Adding Oregon State +6.5
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  11. 01-21-10 04:11 PM #11
    Dukebluejms
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    Final Card for 1/21:

    1. Louisville -1.5
    2. Under 131 Penn St/Indiana
    3. Utah St -4
    4. Oregon State +6.5
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  12. 01-21-10 04:13 PM #12
    Dukebluejms
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    Quote Originally Posted by oiler View Post
    well i am going in a different dirction tonight,let me know what u think like louisville.but like the over in penn state and over in gonzaga

    I'm considered the Gonzaga over, but I see the Zags putting up 85 tops. I'm just not sure if Pepperdine can get to 63. Good Luck
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  13. 01-21-10 07:59 PM #13
    Dukebluejms
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    Final Card for 1/21:

    1. Louisville -1.5
    2. Under 131 Penn St/Indiana
    3. Utah St -4
    4. Oregon State +6.5

    Just squeaked that one out.
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  14. 01-21-10 08:03 PM #14
    Dukebluejms
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    Final Card for 1/21:

    1. Louisville -1.5
    2. Under 131 Penn St/Indiana
    3. Utah St -4
    4. Oregon State +6.5

    Louisville hurt me! Never expected them to shoot 56% from the FT line and 23% behind the arc! Oh well, got 2 more tonight. Sorry to whoever tailed.
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  15. 01-22-10 07:05 AM #15
    Dukebluejms
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    1. Louisville -1.5
    2. Under 131 Penn St/Indiana
    3. Utah St -4
    4. Oregon State +6.5

    Below average for me the last 2 days.
    YTD 5-5
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  16. 01-22-10 08:35 AM #16
    Busterflywheel
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    Push for the day is better than a 1 unit loss..Better luck today Duke
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  17. 01-22-10 09:01 AM #17
    Dukebluejms
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    Quote Originally Posted by Busterflywheel View Post
    Push for the day is better than a 1 unit loss..Better luck today Duke
    Very true. GL to you too.
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