I'm leaning Oregon here. i don't think Toledo will be able to stop Joseph Young (32 and 22 first 2 games). Nathan Boothe and Julius Brown will need to find a way to score against an tough Oregon defense.
Toledo 1-7-1 ATS last 9 road games while Oregon is 11-3-1 ATS last 15 home games. Oregon is also 5-0 SU in last 5 home games.