1. 03-29-14 11:54 PM #1
    pokerwhiz90
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    Florida, Wisconsin.... moving on - need your thoughts? MSU ml

    Another good day, cashing in on Florida lives lines and Wisconsin +275 live odds and moving to 7-1 on spreads for the elite 8.

    The only really good take I can think of taking for tomorrow is the MSU ML, even though I want to play the angle of the NCAA not allowing 3 big 10 teams into the final 4. It's a square play regardless of how you look at it.

    If anyone's really smart, we move on and hammer SMU-3 at home against Clemson who looks terrible.

    Need some thoughts, hopefully we can bounce around some ideas.
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  2. 03-29-14 11:56 PM #2
    DMBcardinal
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    I watched Louiville destroy UConn three times this season and I think Mich St. covers tomorrow. Kentucky probably win too unfortunately.
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  3. 03-29-14 11:59 PM #3
    jtoler
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    Quote Originally Posted by DMBcardinal View Post
    I watched Louiville destroy UConn three times this season and I think Mich St. covers tomorrow. Kentucky probably win too unfortunately.
    You saw what I saw, man the Ville owned UConn this year, they had Napier and Boatright scared to dribble down the floor, not sure why they didnt put pressure on UK's ballhandlers like that, if they do they win, they shouldnt have lost anyway.
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  4. 03-30-14 12:26 AM #4
    pokerwhiz90
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    Quote Originally Posted by jtoler View Post
    You saw what I saw, man the Ville owned UConn this year, they had Napier and Boatright scared to dribble down the floor, not sure why they didnt put pressure on UK's ballhandlers like that, if they do they win, they shouldnt have lost anyway.
    yeah but louisville is a terrible matchup for uconn, i dont see garry harris jr and trice.appling.valentine putting on that kind of full court press....
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  5. 03-30-14 12:31 AM #5
    jtoler
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    Quote Originally Posted by pokerwhiz90 View Post
    yeah but louisville is a terrible matchup for uconn, i dont see garry harris jr and trice.appling.valentine putting on that kind of full court press....
    No State dont play like that, too bad they dont, play good defense though. I wanted to rewatch that game of last season, cant find it anywhere, cant really use a revenge angle at this stage but Im sure that game isnt a distant memory. State coming off a very physical game, good game to prep for this one, they wont see the same physicality in UConn that they saw in Virginia.
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  6. 03-30-14 12:39 AM #6
    MCherry281
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    MSU all day. UConn should have been dumped out by St. Joes and then beat up no size Nova and no D Iowa St. They'll be in trouble against a complete team. Don't mess with the 5.5 as any team with a big lead seemingly must meltdown and make it a 2 point game with 10 secs but MSU will win.
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  7. 03-30-14 12:40 AM #7
    bob6199
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    Quote Originally Posted by pokerwhiz90 View Post
    Another good day, cashing in on Florida lives lines and Wisconsin +275 live odds and moving to 7-1 on spreads for the elite 8.

    The only really good take I can think of taking for tomorrow is the MSU ML, even though I want to play the angle of the NCAA not allowing 3 big 10 teams into the final 4. It's a square play regardless of how you look at it.

    If anyone's really smart, we move on and hammer SMU-3 at home against Clemson who looks terrible.

    Need some thoughts, hopefully we can bounce around some ideas.
    ummmmmm SMU plays Clemson in NY not SMU so yea...
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  8. 03-30-14 12:40 AM #8
    pokerwhiz90
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    yeah also im afraid to take state and lay that many points at msg... you know give the fans what they want, theres no way on a neutral court that uconn stays within even 10 points but this one gives me a headache.... ive capped 7 out of the elite 8 perfectly and went 2 for 2 today as well... maybe this is a no play?

    How about the over? 139
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  9. 03-30-14 12:44 AM #9
    bob6199
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    Quote Originally Posted by pokerwhiz90 View Post
    yeah also im afraid to take state and lay that many points at msg... you know give the fans what they want, theres no way on a neutral court that uconn stays within even 10 points but this one gives me a headache.... ive capped 7 out of the elite 8 perfectly and went 2 for 2 today as well... maybe this is a no play?

    How about the over? 139
    Mich State travels well, that is way blown out of proportion, Mich State is the clearly better team and they are playing with that little girl with cancer so for me MSU rolls. Someone brought up a good point about UCONN getting killed by Louisville and Mich state is better then them.
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  10. 03-30-14 01:31 AM #10
    pokerwhiz90
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    alright, i just played the moneyline for big, not afraid to lay the juice
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  11. 03-30-14 02:05 AM #11
    covertops
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    I think Im gonna dump on the moneyline as well...I took some hard hits today with the arizona loss
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  12. 03-30-14 02:16 AM #12
    pokerwhiz90
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    Quote Originally Posted by covertops View Post
    I think Im gonna dump on the moneyline as well...I took some hard hits today with the arizona loss
    sorry to hear man, in some other threads i told people to take a live line for wisconsin when they were down.... always a good strategy to hedge at a fraction of the cost
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  13. 03-30-14 02:33 AM #13
    pokerwhiz90
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    alright guys, leaning heavily on michigan st 1h -3 what do you guys think?
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  14. 03-30-14 06:22 AM #14
    Luckycharms2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by pokerwhiz90 View Post
    alright guys, leaning heavily on michigan st 1h -3 what do you guys think?
    Not saying you'll lose but as a general rule I hardly ever bet 1h unless I'm getting + points, and if I'm taking points no more than -1.5. To have to cover by 3 IMO is asking a lot these days and in this case you need 4 points to win, and you push on 3 points. I like numbers that end with .5 on 1h/2h lines. Lots of times I've seen teams not cover the 1st half only to cover the entire game. I have no idea about these teams yet but this is my general feeling. Will probably end up looking for a live in play wager. Hopefully unconn takes an early 2-5 point lead and I can get MSU + points or at least MSU -2 or -1.5 instead of -5.5. I also think the 2nd half is easier to bet than the 1st half. If i can't get an early live line i will wait and bet the 2nd half. That's just me and how i work....you're a good capper and i see you win often too so what ever works for you, i can't be depended on for ROCK SOLID advice, just what works for me. Good Luck pokerwhiz!
    Last edited by Luckycharms2012; 03-30-14 at 06:43 AM.
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  15. 03-30-14 08:05 AM #15
    tokio
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    Well considering MSU just played a pretty good defensive team, Uconn should be cake walk in getting points inside the paint.
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  16. 03-30-14 11:20 AM #16
    DMBcardinal
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    UConn did have a petty easy road thus far, Nova always flames out and Iowa St? Come on. I think they get buried today.
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  17. 03-30-14 11:44 AM #17
    pokerwhiz90
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    alright guys im gonna just play msu -5 as a small play... the total is ridiculously high and people are thinking this one is going to be close and hitting the under

    even though i want to think that uconn is going to keep it close, my gut says msu blow out
    also this entire forum now thinks uconn is the play
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