[DarkEraNYSports]

So does anyone have good info on ATS results of games that experience reverse line movement.

Yesterday the two glaring games were Towson and Iowa St. both were getting heavy public money and both lines moved down .5 pts to a pt opposite of the way the money was coming in. both were outright losers, which makes me think one of a few things

a) sharp money was on UNC-W/WVU which makes sense as they were home dogs

b) books are trying to get people to question the RLM and buy off bc the money is coming in to heavy

c) books are trying to trap people into taking the sucker bet (road fav)

today on my offshore a few games fit the trend of RLM:

1) SD St opened at -4 @ wyoming and currently sits at -3.5, they were receiving about 70% of ATS $ at -3.5 (don't have an accurate figure at -4, but i would think public is on SD St)

• rlm pick would be wyoming

2) Alabama opened at -4 vs. Miss St and current sits at -3.5, they are receiving about 70% of ATS $ at -3.5

• rlm pick would be miss st

3) Clemson opened at +4 @ ND and currently sits at +4.5, they are receiving about 65% of ATS $ at +4.5

• rlm pick would be ND

4) Seton hall opened at -2, went up to -2.5 and now sits at -1.5, they were receiving about 75% of ATS $ at -2.5

• rlm pick would be Marquette

Other games that i am watching are:
1) UF @ Tenn

• opened at UF -1.5 as a road favorite. moved to UF -2 but about 80% of $ is coming in on UF
• if spread stays at UF -2 or moves in reverse will look into Tenn

2) Texas vs. OK St

• Opened and currently at Texas -4, about 70% of $ on Texas
• If spread stays at Texas -4 or moves in reverse will look into OK St
• suspension of Smart and loss of felix for Texas should be factored in

3) NC St vs. Wake Forest

• opened and currently at NC St -6, about 75% of $ on NC St
• If spread stays at NC St or moves in reverse will look into Wake Forest
• Possible $ % changes depend on CMM's status for wake (will probably stay away)

Just things i've noticed haven't made any picks yet, but wondering if anyone has insight.

[PaperTrail07]

Look at LSu VS GA....same as Iowa st and WVU....

[labones00]

Good analysis, I was looking at the RLM too. I really like Marquette and Ole Miss tonight

[jtoler]

Said it a million times quit looking at betting percentages and quit using the term RLM because you and everybody who I see use it dont know the real meaning of the term. Just cap, get all the info you can, betting percentages are only there to make you think youre getting some kind of edge.

[DarkEraNYSports]

If you capped last night Towson was the play of the day. Lost outright.

[labones00]

Said it a million times quit looking at betting percentages and quit using the term RLM because you and everybody who I see use it dont know the real meaning of the term. Just cap, get all the info you can, betting percentages are only there to make you think youre getting some kind of edge.

I couldn't disagree more. Most games I have caped have been way off compared to earlier in the season. We are in the middle of league play and RML is definitely in full effect, the smart $$ is very sharp this time of year. At this point in the season I think looking at the last 5-10 years of head to head matchups gives the best insight. Throw the records out this time of year, the Towson and Kansas games last night are great examples

[Hotnicks]

I couldn't disagree more. Most games I have caped have been way off compared to earlier in the season. We are in the middle of league play and RML is definitely in full effect, the smart $$ is very sharp this time of year. At this point in the season I think looking at the last 5-10 years of head to head matchups gives the best insight. Throw the records out this time of year, the Towson and Kansas games last night are great examples

I agree. You can cap your ass off and bring up numbers pointing to a team winning all day, but you have to be on the right side of the money. I dont understand how people don't believe there is a difference between sharps and squares. Especially with all these systems and numbers people crunch all day blah blah blah. Those systems and number crunches will never be better than the algorithms vegas uses. You have to bet the right numbers, especially if you see an edge. Which is what sharps bet and their money outweighs public money so hence the RLM you see. Most of the time, i'd rather side with those guys. The hard part is figuring if the RLM is true sharp money and not a setup.


Do people think that the lines are just moved based on vegas just wanting to mess with people? Sometimes yes, but mostly it's sharp money moving those lines backwards. I hardly post on here cause this site is vicious and it's pretty negative from what i've seen. I have noticed if you use Streak For The Cash as a tool to gauge what the general public thinks (Specifically to games that heavily favor the team the line is moving against, 91%-9%) and match it with RLM games... you'll do great.

Yesterday:
Spurs
Opened: -3.5 Closed -3
Bets: 59% on spread, 80% on ML
Streak for the cash: Spurs 98.6% Pistons 1.4

Iowa State
Opened: -2 Closed -2
Bets: 62% on spread, 65% on ML
Streak for the Cash: Iowa State 96.2% WV 3.8%

Those are just 2 examples. I saw somebody mention towson on this thread but they weren't on SFTC. This formula isn't 100% but its very very good.

[CappinTerp]

IMO people pay too much attention to RLM....it's something that people like and that's OK. Capping is very hard but it comes down to 3 simple( but very complex ) things....Fundamental and technical analysis and always have an ​angle.!!

[Hotnicks]

IMO people pay too much attention to RLM....it's something that people like and that's OK. Capping is very hard but it comes down to 3 simple( but very complex ) things....Fundamental and technical analysis and always have an ​angle.!!

I don't think it should be the only thing you can pay attention to, but at the same time, wouldn't you agree it's hard to ignore? Even if you don't like it.

[CappinTerp]

I don't think it should be the only thing you can pay attention to, but at the same time, wouldn't you agree it's hard to ignore? Even if you don't like it.

Yes you are right nothing should be the only thing one looks at but for me I do ignore it . Price action and when things look suspiciously high or low is what I look for ( technical analysis in this case ).

[chilidog]

RLM doesn't work. It's been tested and tracked ad nauseum. In the end, it hits 50%.

[Crate Mayne]

Yeah to rely on RLM, you're expecting that big money bats 100%... when they don't come close to that