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NCAAB system thats been working
Over the last 3 nights I've been using a college b ball system that has hit wildly..I'm using stats from scoresandodds.com
Take Home team ppg + Road team points against and divide this by 2 (taking the average of these two numbers)
Then take Road ppg + Home team points allowed and divide by 2. Subtract these two numbers to come up with a new spread.
These have been great in determining ATS bets and I've even drawn a few underdog ML victories with this system.
keep going and the hit rate will close in towards 50%
It could..im betting small but have been betting 10 games+ a night for the past few nights and its going strong..11-2 tonight
Nice, but the sample size is not big enough. Anyone can have hot streaks. Hope you can keep on going. You should reevaluate at 100 games. Best of luck!
Yea definitely! the fact that I went from god awful to positive is encouraging! If this system goes stale and evens out, I can go back and see how successful it was when the revised line was 3 pts off the vegas line, 4pts, 5 pts, etc. If anything, in the small data set I have, this method appears to serve as a good way to begin assessing a match up.
Hopefully this keeps up for the year and still works for next year.
Seems like this works well with the JMU's and Drakes of the world which is good because I used to pick losers for the sake of getting some action in.
I ran NHL system based off Predictionmachine.com analysis and hit for about +35 units the first week.. second week it went the other way. Different system work different times.. ride it till it cools off but the law of averages will catch up.. no team plays consistently throughout a season or else there would be no doubt systems work just as consistently. I'll def keep track myself and see what happens too.
What is your threshold.. difference of 3-4+ points off?
Last edited by killawookie; 01-30-14 at 10:25 AM.
I work with a system based on Ratings like Sagarin. In the NBA and NFL ist works perfect. NHL and MLB not so much. So you have to pick your plan. Not every sport is evaluated the same way.
If i see a 2 pt or more differential (yes only 2 pts cuz im a degen) with the revised spread compared to vegas's spread, I'll most likely bet it. I'm sure this system will even out once i up my wagers lol! Sometimes if i reach the threshold but I see the team in favor is really struggling, i'll lay off. Injuries of course factor in as well.
Do people use the same system year after year or does it have to be tweaked?
I can pick nhl based on gut/trends but NBA has been brutal, I'd love to learn a system for that, atleast a place to start. I think picking on gut is destined to lose eventually.
Last edited by BeanTownClown88; 01-30-14 at 11:30 AM.
Another good day...11-5
Interested in following this. As a relatively new handicapper with knowledge in only nfl, I've been looking for a way to break into ncaab.
Cool Spades glad I could share...Wish I could show you how I was picking before implementing this, it was ugly as hell. My spreadsheet never had that much green before, so whether this system will even out in the end is still to be determined. Every winning day that passes convinces me otherwise.
It's still good to be selective of games and I should probably not wager on 10+ games a day. Really excited at this and hope it keeps me around through March madness. With that being said, today looks like a tough day with Ivy League and the weird conference that has Iona n co. in it. Will be another good test. Interestingly enough, this system has helped me be perfect so far in predicting underdog victories.
Good luck and let me know how this works out!
Last edited by BeanTownClown88; 01-31-14 at 01:58 PM.
So what are your picks today??
I have not made them but I feel if I post my leans and they lose people will jump down my throat.
That being said, without looking into teams injuries and blindly following the system my leans are:
Detroit U Ats/ML
Dartmouth Ats
Brown ATS (System has them as 16.5 pt fave, I usually pull trigger when my revised spread goes over 2pts one way or the other) 5Dimes has Brown at -12
Yale Ats
Oakland ATS
Austin Peay ATS/ML if your feeling risky. System has them as 7 pt fave
Hope this helps you start some research
have you tried backtracking your system?
system should say columbia??Originally Posted by BeanTownClown88
I back tracked two days before officially starting to wager, and as you can see I only made $2.50 wagers and have increased bets as balance increased. My main objective with this thread was to see if anyone else was looking for a system or have tried anything like this. I also want to learn about systems for other sports that people have. I hate NBA, its been such a crap shoot and this system will not work with that.
While it's fresh and exciting, I've been capping every game. But I imagine when there's 100+ games a day, I may not get around to all of them.
I would never have made many of those picks on the spreadsheet without this system, so as far as I can see there is some merit behind it. My worst nightmare is bringing it public and then it losing and I mess up people's bank rolls. Let this be a disclaimer!
Yale Home PPG = 72.7
Colombia Road Pts Allowed = 63.9
(72.7+63.9)/2 = 68.3
Colombia Road PPG = 62.9
Yale Home Pts Allowed = 63.5
(62.9+63.5)/2 = 63.2
68.3-63.2 = 5.1 = New spread in favor of Home team
I would wait to see if line moves towards Colombia before betting Yale
you're right my fault
This system had Northwestern covering against Wisconsin which NW won, and had Nebraska beating IU by 5 which happened.
I also find that my teams go down in first half and then blow out the second. Possibly a good 2h system here, but I dont like betting halves..I did it last nite cuz I flew home to Boston from San Fran on a red eye and wanted somthin to entertain me in airport
for giggles heres what i got
Yale -5
Harvard -2
Cleveland St -3
Dartmouth -5
Rider -1
Youngstown -5
Brown -10
Murray St -3.5
Manhat -1.5
This looks right to me.
Last edited by qcci21a; 01-31-14 at 01:02 PM.
hey Bean Interesting why don't you post the plays when you get them.
I'm on Brown -12 so far today, want to see if people bang colombia so i can get a point or two back on Yale and I like both Det and Austin Peay to win.
I never started thread mostly cuz I use my phone to look at site but I cant post from my phone for some reason. I started this like 3 days ago so its still new but I dont wanna get people pissed if they pick a loser cuz of me...I wanted to share and hear peoples feed back...hopefully someone can share a nhl or nba system with me.
Also I want to build credibility..on plays ive made with this system since 1/27, im 30-15 (66%)..im either the luckiest man alive or this is a fluke so I'm still letting the chips fall so to speak
Last edited by BeanTownClown88; 01-31-14 at 01:28 PM.
good luck...
I've been experimenting with using numbers to be on the right side of the spread too. Keep in mind, the numbers are only a starting point, more work needs to be done before you can safely play the numbers. Lots of people have thought of this formula before. If it was a real bread winner, the bookies would have done something about it. None the less, I hope you succeed mate!
Thanks GK, I 100% agree..this "system" is just a starting point. A chance to really profit if one can be selective.
I was doing a system similar to this but also taking into account the average ppg and points given up for the league. It didn't end up well, but I'm thinking it was just over complicated for no reason. Yours seems to be working fine. Out of curiosity, are you doing this all on paper? Or are you using some spreadsheet software?
Yea mine isn't that complicated, it kind of makes sense too. As for how I'm entering the information, I just have simple excel sheet. All i enter is the teams playing home/away, opening spread, point for/against info and it spits the new spread out. I don't necessarily predict the score, but I certainly have been swayed towards the winning side.
If I wanted I could delve deeper into the data but I dont have that much time on my hands lol
Nervous about tonight though. Tough to call some of these teams.
Last edited by BeanTownClown88; 01-31-14 at 04:20 PM.
yale -3 go large
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don't ask why just thank me later
Funny you say that! I had Yale 5 pts better tonight! I'll throw some down
all favorites I see, that scares me lol
no those are the system lines
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