Well I am a degenerate with a capital D. I had decided not to play any games in the tournament a few weeks ago and now I am. Well I won’t be playing baseball so this is my last thrill till late August. Even so, lines are tight and I would suggest treading lightly. In years past I’ve played upwards of 30-40 games in the tournament—not to mention a few degenerate NIT plays. This time though, just a handful of plays.
Anyway, here are my plays with rare write ups.
807 Old Dominion +1.5 (4 Units)
It is not often that the better teams is seeded seven slots lower but that is the case with Old Dominion and Butler. Butler captured the nation’s attention with an early season run in the preseason NIT where they won the championship. They played some quality teams such as Tennessee, Indiana, Gonzaga, and Notre Dame and won all of them. However, a closer inspection of those games should reveal that the teams they beat were not really in mid-season form and not to mention many of those games they ended up winning hinged on a few fortunate shots/bounces for Butler. As the season went on for Butler, they had a good start but faded toward the end within the sub-average Horizon league and really struggled to beat the low quality teams in their conference. Conversely Old Dominion had their share of good wins to boast having beaten Georgetown (badly) and went to Toledo the #1 seed in the MAC and won there during bracket buster weekend. Despite the perceived stronger schedule that Butler has faced, in reality Old Dominion has faced the stronger overall schedule and played in the more difficult of the two conferences. Old Dominion also has put up some very strong ATS numbers vs. high quality defensive teams (5-1 ATS) this year as well as some very strong ATS number vs. high quality teams in general (8-2 ATS) Compound the fact that Butler is completely undersized, not a single player over 6’7, and the fact that Old Dominion’s guards are every bit as quick and athletic as Butler’s and the penchant for 12 seeds to “upset” 5 seeds, it would not be surprising to have Old Dominion win outright.
817 Michigan State -1.5 (4 units)
Perhaps I am a bit bias here but MSU has shown me quite a bit this year. Both teams are very young and inexperience in many respects but one thing that you can always count on from Michigan State is a solid defensive effort. Looking at last year’s MSU roster that featured 3 NBA players, one had to wonder why they underachieved so much. Pretty simple. They did not play MSU style basketball. The team was soft, the team did not rebound well, and they were not physical enough. Tom Izzo and the coaching staff made sure to address this off season and anyone who has seen MSU knows just how defensive oriented this team is. That is not to say Marquette is not as they have many numbers to support this as well but the fact is that MSU is just the much more physical team and features a much stronger inside game with an emerging Goron Sutton and Raymar Morgan. Throw in the Nietzal who has become an All-American quality point guard, Tom Izzo’s great success as a tournament coach, a team who played the more difficult overall schedule, and a team who has the better offensive ppg, fg%, defensive numbers, and a the best free throw shooter in the Big Ten in Nietzal I like MSU to win this one. One cause for concern is MSU’s poor road record. True. However, note that they lost @OSU by 2, @WISC by 2, @Iowa by 2, and to Maryland on a neutral court by 2 so you can see this team is very competitive. But the road stuff matters little here as this game site is the epitome of a neutral court for both teams. Also, take into consideration that Marquette is without Jerral McNeal.
827 Stanford +5.5 (2 units)
A lot of emphasis has been placed on Louisville playing in Lexington. Even so, the fact is that has only helped to shade the line for Louisville. One should not consider this a home game for the Louisville; perhaps a fan friendly arena would be more accurate. The fact is these teams still have to play one another. UL has been playing well and Stanford has been struggling as of late so why Stanford? Looking at the statistics there is not much difference between these two teams. If anything, Stanford has shown themselves to be more proficient offensively, a better free throw shooting team, and a good defensive ball club although not quite as efficient as Louisville in that category. At times Louisville has looked very crisp offensively, other times they look horrid and with Stanford’s tight defense they will likely experience some problems. The Cardinal has gone to tough places like Virginia and won so it is not like we are getting a team that is abysmal on the road here. If anything, Louisville has been a horrid ATS team when placed on a neutral court (13-28 ATS). Some of Stanford’s most impressive wins and covers this year have come against high quality defensive opponents similar to Louisville’s style of basketball. Compound this with the fact that we have a Big East team not named George Town laying 5.5 points to a Pac-10. If anyone watched NCAAB this year, you would know that the Pac-10 is clearly the best conference. On the intangible side, one has to consider the (deserved) criticism that Stanford is receiving about being in the tournament, but they are here and that may just motivate them. We have seen in the past that teams that have a chip on their shoulder seem to come out with a lot of energy and they end up vindicating the committee. I like Stanford to win this game outright.
831 Gonzaga +1.5 (2 units)
A rematch of last year’s second round game between the Hoosiers of Indiana and the Bulldogs of Gonzaga. I was on the wrong side last year so I’ll try to make up for it. Gonzaga has shown me quite a bit this year. They’ve played an extraordinarily difficult schedule that featured the likes of Texas, Memphis, North Carolina, Washington, Washington St, Stanford, etc…Even so, circumstances have been tough for Gonzaga loosing power forward/druggie Josh Hypalt to suspension. The team has adjusted and now found a flow. They lost by 1 pt to a very good Memphis team in OT. Criticism is levied annually against the WCC and true it is not a great conference but there was marked improvement from teams like Santa Clara and St. Mary’s and even Loyola that gave Gonzaga some great games. This team is fluid offensively, they share the ball well, they take good shots, and are very well coached. Mark Few does not quite get the credit he deserves. Indiana, conversely, is slumping into the tournament. An unimpressive win against Northwestern and a blow out against perennial Big Ten cellar dweller Penn St are nothing to write home about. Throw in a quick exit against an offensively challenged Illinois team, one must wonder if Indiana has faded. Their home win against Wisconsin seems like eons ago and their offense has been sporadic. They have not shown they can win on the road consistently in the Big Ten. Road wins against UK and CONN seem impressive but consider Kentucky is 0-8 against ranked teams and Connecticut is not even NIT bound this year one should not read a whole lot into those wins other than they were against brand name teams having down years. Calvin Sampson will eventually do a good job in Indiana, but it has been a struggle this year for him maintaining the intensity game in and game out. With Gonzaga, you know you are going to get a good effort. What they lack in talent they more than make up with it in heart and a strong coach staff. Throw in the fact that Gonzaga is statistically the better offensive shooting team, the better of the two free throw shooting teams, and the better of the two defensive teams and compound that with the fact that this game is out West and Gonzaga being Gonzaga, expect Gonzaga to the get the lionshare of the fan support. Gonzaga wins and sets up a rematch of last year’s thrilling regional final with UCLA
628 UNLV +1.5 (2 units)
This game was the most difficult to me. I’ve been impressed with UNLV all season long. They went to Texas Tech and annihilated them. They went to Nevada-Reno and controlled the entire game and won there. They went to Utah a very difficult place to win and blew out the Utes. You get the idea. UNLV knows how to win away from home. GT on the other hand has a nice win on a neutral court beating Memphis and a road win against a fading Florida State team. UNLV’s strength has been their defense all year long. In fact, when facing high paced offensive teams (77+ or higher) they are a perfect 5-0 this year demonstrating just how good their defense is. Their offense is a concern and their lack of an inside game is problematic against a much more physical and athletic GT team but UNLV’s defense is so strong that it offsets the offensive disparity between these two teams. For what it is worth, consider also UNLV is #10 RPI and features a very senior savvy ball club with the likes of Kevin Kruger, Wendell White, and Wink Adams. One thing we saw last year with George Mason is their reliance on seniors to carry the team. Same thing here. Georgia Tech is young, has not shown they can win on the road, and has been inconsistent all year long. UNLV has maintained a high level of consistency all year long (c.f. @BYU) while Georgia Tech has found the going tough against putrid teams like Wake Forest on a neutral court. UNLV is not the greatest offensive team but they are efficient and handle the ball well. If they can contain Georgia Tech’s inside game, I see now reason why the Rebels can’t win this game. Also, usually you don’t have coaching mismatches when one coach has led his team to the championship game but one thing is for certain Lon Krueger is not going to be out coached. He’s taken 4 teams to the NCAA tournament and gets the most out of his players. Plus Krueger is playing for a lucrative contract knowing there are many suitors (ADs of course) ready to steal him away from a mid-major school like UNLV.
i like all but mich st
now if that line were to switch aroud bygame time....
then i'd be all over it
i just dont like favorites
ESPECIALLY real small ones
if i bet any favorites its gonna be big wood
Great write-ups Buddy Bear. I agree on ODU, your synopsis gets the whole story. +118 has good value.
The Stanford game, that should be a fun one to watch. The return of Guard Anthony Goods is huge for Stanford, but of course the question is how well he and the freshman big men will be able to click under the tourney pressure. And key forward Lawrence Hill was hurt in his last game. He should play, but still. So there are a lot of question marks for Standford, but 5.5/6 is a decent cushion.
I'm not sure about Gonzaga though. My problem with them is that getting into the tourney was their big accomplishment. Derek Raivio wanted to make sure Gonzaga didn't miss the tourney "on his watch" etc etc. Winning their conference despite losing Heytvelt was their emotional peak, and they might let down here. And Indiana is better with the return of guard Earl Calloway, and is probably on the improve, although they do admittedly have problems away from home. And also, of course, Gonzaga at this point is just a far better program in general than Indiana.
I agree with you on UNLV, they should win and there is value with their money line, but it wouldn't be surprising at all if Georgia Tech beat them and then went on to beat Wisconsin as well.
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