[EaglesPhan36]

I really like this play at +155. They could have beaten Wisconsin twice and the Spartans need this one to leave no doubt about a NCAA bid. I think the +4 is a no brainer, but the ML looks nice as well. Thoughts?

[Seattle Slew]

MSU is always overpriced due to past success. They should be getting 6 points or more in this game instead of 4 against a Top 4 team. Despite the win on their home floor against Wisconsin, they should be a bigger dog on the line and ML.

I think they have done enough to get in, and I also don't think they are that good.

I'd stay clear of them.

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

Personally, I don't think MSU has a chance in this one... They tried pretty hard to lose to Northwestern yesterday... Wisconsin has had two bad outings against the Spartans and I don't look for a 3rd to occur today... I think Wisconsin dominates this game from the outset... All they have to do is throw a little 1-3-1 trap in like Northwestern did yesterday and they can slow MSU down... MSU looked absolutely terrible in the 2nd half yesterday...

Best of luck if you roll with MSU, but the chances of Wisconsin laying another egg against them are pretty slim, IMO!

[BuddyBear]

I don't know SS.....In my personal opinion MSU is a better team than UW. I don't think you have watched quite enough UW basketball to realize that this isn't really a top 5 team. UW is vastly overrated and have relied on one player all year long. MSU has the better defense, better coach, and better player in Nietzal over Tucker. The records don't always reflect who is the better team and even if one considers UW to be the better team they are not all that much better than MSU and being better is due more to experience than actual talent. If anything 4 seems to be slightly high.

Even so, MSU beat them once by 9 in EL and then lost by 2 in Madison and now the line is UW -4. The line maker seems to be telling you something and that they may have an opinion on this game but that's something I need to consider a bit more. Consider that MSU is a very poor road team, UW fans travel quite well and there should be a huge following for the Badgers there today, and that MSU is playing back-to-back games here so there is the fatigue factor to take into account.

MSU played well last year in a similar situation beating a favored Illinois team in the 2nd rd of the tournament...a team they had struggled against for some time much like UW. And with Brian Butch being out, that gives MSU an already even stronger advantage down low and on the boards.

I am not really sure what to think....I do think that if MSU covers they also probably win this game outright so if you like State tonight at +4 you may as well play the +155 as well.

I guess I have a slight lean toward MSU + but not sure I would play it. I am actually debating whether to go to the game or not....so I may be there and if I do I'll definitely bet it.

Good luck....

[BuddyBear]

Best of luck if you roll with MSU, but the chances of Wisconsin laying another egg against them are pretty slim, IMO!

Actually past performances against teams that you've played in the same year are a very strong predictor of how you should expect a game to unfold. If I am not mistaken, if a team has already beat a team twice, there is a very good chance they'll beat them again. It really wouldn't suprise me to see UW struggle again...but I would be very surprised if UW blew out MSU.

[Wassymac]

Good analysis BB. I like the Spartans on the ML and will take my chances with the team that nearly beat Wisky on the road a week ago. These teams are playing each other for the 3rd time in two weeks or so? Coaching/adjustments will play a huge role so put money with Izzo for this one (although I think Ryan is a great coach).

Semi finals will look like this in the BTT

Ohio St vs Purdue
Illinois vs MSU

[bigboydan]

As much as I like taking dogs I can't take MSU today.

[Seattle Slew]

I agree on Wisconsin. I can see them going out 2nd round as a 2 seed or even a 1 seed in the tournament. They play that slowdown style that can get you in trouble in the NCAA if the other team gets hot from 3-point range, especially a big underdog.

I do think UW is a little better than MSU this season, and this line should be higher.

[QUOTE=BuddyBear;233501]I don't know SS.....In my personal opinion MSU is a better team than UW. I don't think you have watched quite enough UW basketball to realize that this isn't really a top 5 team.

[Wheell]

I put Wisconsin as a 2.3 point favorite. I do NOT take injuries into account.