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TPowell's November College Hoops Plays
Couple of math plays early on
I like the Cal game tonight. I have the final score at 70-64 (roughly) Cal WITHOUT factoring in home court
1. Points Per Possesion * AVERAGE pace of game (average the two teams pace)
2. Do the same thing except use defensive points per possesion.
3. Average Cal's offensive score and Murray's defensive score and vice versa
Murray State +14 (-105)
Murray State/Cal UNDER 139.5 (-105)
Cal has such a loaded team coming back! Don't know much about MState except 5 starters all returning. So TPowell, think MState can slow it down stay within 14? ESPNU 11PM! What was MS's record last year I wonder? Good luck and will be following closely all year! Thanks!
Monkey I would just watch and wait until Friday. Friday I see some games that will be lined like I love. Just small plays until then
I'm not sold on this Cal team quite yet, maybe they prove me wrong early this year but I doubt it. I wasn't too high on the Pac 10 last year and I saw why in the NCAA's. Overrated conference and they couldn't do a whole lot in it.
So $1 on Webber St +14?
around 1/4th a unit on both plays. So around $25
Yea TPowell, just played MS with points bet! Will be looking in here for the weekend! Getting antsy! Thanks!Originally Posted by TPowell
could scalp out of Murray State now for a very small penalty (down 8 at half and line is 6) but I'm hanging on to them. Not feeling them covering though. Hopefully the under hangs on
This is what I was talking about with lesser known teams like Murray State and your research! Tired of betting all the big games with too much money involved! Need this year to start cashing in on the obscure games! You had the right side! Good call tonight!
thanks Monkey, am very interested in playing games like this one where both teams have at least 4 returning starters.
slight lean to Cal/Detroit UNDER 69 1H (Not lined yet, just getting that down)
expect UNC to be laying close to 40 tonight. I like Cal if the line is under 20 and Robert Morris if the line is under 15
I see Cal at -18 and Robert Morris +18. Wish both were a little higher but both are what I liked
1 Unit Play- Robert Morris +18 (-105)
tpowell
i know your familiarty with college basketball and have read your posts for a long time now.. why do you feel Robert Morris is the play here? there best player and senior Langhurst is out..
unreal, big miss there. Am still gonna make the Cal play
California -16.5 (-109) for 1 unit
Powel I will have my eye on you this season!
How do you feel about the Ohio St. game tonight TPowell? I think OSU covers 17 at home no problem, but then again I don't know very much about James Madison.
Looks like James Madison has a transfer from Texas A&M who wont be able to play until December and has another post player who had shoulder surgery that wont be back until then. That shouldn't kill them against OSU, but I would lean towards OSU. Not playing it because James Madison leaned on 3 freshman last year who could really break out
TPowell.. Good thoughts, I like James Madison here. You're dead on balls accurate about those breakout candidates for JMU. Wells, Moore, Semenev are all going to become very good players for them and are poised to have big years and futures. I have this game much tigher than the pointspread. Still deciding on how big of a play it'll be for me. Ohio State's frontcourt that softens them up for me. Dallas Lauderdale isn't 100%. Kyle Madsen is going to get alot of minutes as a senior this year, but he's downright awful. I don't think either him or Nikola Kecman could start for James Madison. Ohio State is pretty deep in their backcourt with some studs, but they all can't be on the court at the same time.
wish I would have played OSU, but it wasnt a strong feeling. Oh well, HUGE card tommorow
Will be posting some games and leans
St Bonaventure (+1)
Cleveland State lost 3 starters from that NCAA team last year and while they are replacing them with solid JC transfers, I don't see them gelling together in their first game of the year (especially on the road). St B's on the other hand, returns basically everybody from a team that was a middle of the pack A-10 team. Mark Schmidt inherited a disaster a few years ago, but has really turned it around. I like the Bonnies at home because they are the better TEAM this early in the season.
UMass (+3.5)
Line is backwards to me. Both teams are very young, but UMass had to learn a completely new scheme last year. With Ricky Harris and Anthony Gurlie back at guard, I like their chances of winning road games. Both are experienced scoring guards who can really play. The UMass recruiting class is also the best of the A-10 in most people's minds with forward Terrell Vinsion who will be an impact player from the start. Central Florida lost star player Jermain Taylor in the draft this past year as he averaged over 25 points per game and was 3rd in the country! UCF may be at home, but UMass has the much better team.
Drexel (+5.5)
I think Drexel COULD win this game, but I obviously expect a game in the low 60's. Both teams get after it defensively and will struggle scoring early in the year. I've seen several articles downing Drexel, but I really think they can be a solid team this year. St Joes seems to be in rebuilding mode and even at home, will struggle with a stingy Drexel team
San Diego (+1)
Not as strong a play as most of the others, but with Johnson back, San Diego should be a decent team. Stanford was terrible last year and lost both of their star players. At home, I think San Diego can pull out the win, but a lot of question marks.
Look forward to your season TPowell. Best of luck
another slight lean: Penn (+14.5)
agree 100%, Jermaine Taylor is gone... I don't understand this line at all. Ill be all over Umass as well, just want to see what the line does early tomorrow.
GL this year
1 unit play: Ole Miss -13 (-105)
1 Unit Play: Penn +14.5 (-102)
Last edited by TPowell; 11-13-09 at 11:01 AM.
1 unit play: Samford +11.5 (-106)
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