[SBRforum Staff]

Follow Florida -2½ at Tennessee

Game Time: 2/27/2007 9:00:00 PM
By: Matt Fargo
http://www.procappers.com

Look for the Gators to bounce back from their recent loss this evening when Florida hits the road to face the Tennessee Volunteers.

Florida lost for the second time in its last three games over the weekend at LSU, but it wasn’t totally unexpected. The Gators had just wrapped up the overall regular season SEC title so if there was a game that Florida was going to stumble in, this was the one. When the head coach knows that was the case, it can be dismissed.

"They looked like a team that just won a championship, and competing maybe wasn't the most important thing on their mind," Florida coach Billy Donovan said of his team after the defeat.

The Volunteers have yet to lose at home this season but they have been winning very ugly of late. Five of their last eight wins at home have been by five points or fewer so the dominating non-conference home schedule was a little skewed. Defensively, Tennessee has struggled recently as it is allowing 46.7% from the floor including 35% from behind the arc. Those are the types of percentages that will hurt here as the Gators are the best in the country in shooting offense and can take full advantage.

The Gators lead the nation in field goal percentage as they are hitting 52.7% from the floor and 41.2% from long range which is good for eight in the country. Florida is coming off a horrible shooting effort against LSU from the perimeter which could make things really good here. Florida guards did not hit a field goal until less than five minutes were left in play, and the Gators hit a season low two three-pointers on 17 attempts. This was a complete aberration as the Gators often have the edge up top. Florida is hitting 7.1 three-pointers per game and limiting its opponents to 5.1 per game contest, a difference of 2.0 per game that translates to a 6-point advantage in that category.

Overall, Florida is +11.7% in three-point shooting margin and that actually jumps to +14.6% in road games. The Gators have been a great recovery team as they are 14-3 against the spread in road games off a road loss since 1997. They add to that here as they bounce back and take the season series against the Volunteers for the first time in five years.

Play: Florida -2½

[SBRforum Staff]

Gators-2 at Vols

Game Time: 2/27/2007 9:00:00 PM
By: Bob Harvey


Look for Florida to play with more focus this evening when the Gators visit Thompson-Boling Arena to play the Tennessee Volunteers

The defending champion Gators have been upset twice in the past week and have failed to cover the number in their last five outings. But I look for a dramatic turn of events tonight at Tennessee.

Florida coach Billy Donovan said there are several things that have accounted for the recent slump. But #1 on the list is a letdown from clinching the league title last Wednesday night. To avoid their third straight loss, Donovan and the Gators will have to hand the Vols their first home conference loss of the season.

Look for Florida to avoid falling behind early in the contest and expect a much better defensive performance for 40 minutes. I say the champs turn things around in Knoxville.

Play: Florida -2

[LT Profits]

I respectfilly disagree as I played Tennessee +140 on the Moneyline. I did not even bother betting the spread because I feel this is one of those games where either the dog wins outright or the favorite romps.

[dodif]

I respectfilly disagree as I played Tennessee +140 on the Moneyline. I did not even bother betting the spread because I feel this is one of those games where either the dog wins outright or the favorite romps.

i am playing florida but under this same philosophy except the way I put it is THE TEAM THAT WINS USUALLY COVERS

Look at the finals from any given night and u will see the team that wins usually covers 80% of the time. Unfortunately only syracuse understood this yesterday and not ****ing kansas. So pick the winner and often u'll pick the spread winner. I personally dont use this theory when the line is -22 in hoops or -14 in football. but it still holds true for the most part.

[bigboydan]

I agree with LT here. I too like Tennessee in this game.