[The HG]

Kentucky 136
Marshall 134
Syracuse 144 (broad range)
Wake Forest 124 (low confidence, careful)
S Florida 136
Kent St 146
Butler 126 (very broad range)
Temple 144
Ga Tech 164 (somewhat low conf)
Detroit 132
Akron 138
Providence 158 (56?)
Tennessee St 118 (somewhat broad range)
W Kentucky 156 (upper 30's also a smaller peak)
St Louis 156 (low conf)
Auburn 132 (broad range)
USC 132 (34?)
Loyola Chi 138
Boise St 156 (unique game, careful, unusual factors)
Portland 134
San Diego 144(42?)
UNLV 130 (32?)
Washington 156
Loyola Marymount 140
New Mexico 134
Toledo 150
Hawaii 130


re the boise st game, it's not at all clear where this line will open. if it is moderate, we will make a max unit bet on the over, and if it's low, we will go higher than that, but no bet intended for a takeback. usually if we like a bet a lot we expect the market to roughly agree with us, but not in this case. especially if the line comes out around 140, that line may not go anywhere, may even go down. this is a more unpredictable line than usual in all ways.

other lines that may open far off: toledo might be in the 30s, n mexico might be in the 40s, the UNC/STL line could be anywhere, the providence line could be in the 40s, the wake F line could be anywhere, the temple line could be in the 30s, hawaii could be around 40

[The HG]

Our bets:

Wake F under 134 (2)
S Fla over 128.5 (1)
Kent St over 137.5 (1)
Temple over 130.5 (many units)
Ga Tech over 159 (.5)
Detroit over 121.5 (1)
Tenn St under 126 (.5)
UTEP over 141.5 (1)
Washington over 137.5 (many)
Loyola Marymount under 146.5 (.5)
New Mexico under 140.5 (1)

did anyone else get the low washington line?

[Jay Edgar]

Got 139, now 148.5.

Course the Charlotte/Houston that opened on Wed at @ 136 or so before it shot to 153 played out at 114 last night -- so that's only half the battle.

[The HG]

Got 139, now 148.5.

Course the Charlotte/Houston that opened on Wed at @ 136 or so before it shot to 153 played out at 114 last night -- so that's only half the battle.

indeed. that was freaky but that's how ncaa hoops goes. i knew the fact that it was played in hawaii was a unique factor for the game, i wanted to research how two teams playing a neutral game in hawaii in the past have fared totals-wise, but i didn't have the time. i wouldn't be surprised if it turned out that traveling to hawaii has a cooling effect on normally high-powered offenses.

at any rate, i won't get into expected value and risk right now, i'm sure you know about that and implement strategies for it. but of course, any bet we initially make big like that, we do to take back for a middle later. we took back all but 3 units for a middle on that bet, as we would do for any multi-unit ncaa totals bet. today for instance, we already took back the extra units for the temple game, and we'll do it also for the washington game.

[Jay Edgar]

Agree with all of that.

Thanks much for posting these totals opinions -- they are much appreciated.

[bigboydan]

Good stuff indeed GanchrowHG.

Temple line soared up 8 points.

So much for missing out on the value in that game

[rob]

Ganchrow HG, how much of a spread between college hoops totals do you feel is necessary to provide a value middle play?

[The HG]

Thanks much for posting these totals opinions -- they are much appreciated.

likewise with your nba spread stuff, interesting to follow and very impressive results

[The HG]

Ganchrow HG, how much of a spread between college hoops totals do you feel is necessary to provide a value middle play?

good question, i'll answer that when i get a chance later today or tomorrow