[Dukebluejms]

This applies more to the games coming up when most teams are very close and emotion is running so high. NCAA games are unpredictable, to say the least, during the regular season. But add this kind of pressure to the mix and most numbers are thrown out the window because 18 - 22 year olds are more likely to fold. I'm just curious if you change your handicapping style at this point of the year? What angles do you find most telling? etc. The reason is that as I have looked over the games for today and tomorrow, it is just hard to find one single team that I feel has a decided advantage. Here is what I see for tonight:


1) Miami (-5.5) vs. Marquette: I would imagine the Miami is a strong public play after Marquette squeaked out two wins in Lexington, but I lean Marq +5.5. Personally, I thought the Big East was overrated all year and had Marq getting knocked out before this, but tf Marq can keep in the half court I like their chances. Marquette is deep with 9 guys playing double digit minutes. With Reggie Johnson out, that leaves a Miami with a 6 man rotation (5 guards/wings and Gamble inside). Even if Jekiri plays extended minutes, I see him struggling to handle Gardener inside. Marquette may not win, but I see it being a close game. Miami would rather speed it up, Marquette will look to slow it down. Who gets their way? I don't know.

2) IU (-5.5) vs. Syracuse: This is a game that I can't touch. Syracuse plays ridiculous defense and we all know about IU's offense. Which style of play wins out? This will determine the game, right? Syracuse cannot score with IU, but can IU score against the zone?

3) OSU (-3.5) vs. Zona: Who knows here? Arizona has disappointed for much of the season, but seem to be turning it around. Hard to bet against OSU as Craft should shut down Lyons. When Lyons is pressured you can expect wild, forced shots all over the court. However, Zona has the athletes to match OSU's wing players. Who matches up with Hill? Ross or Thompson? I doubt its Thomas as they won't risk foul trouble, so if its Ross or Thompson I have to like the Senior's chances against either Soph.

4) Wichita (-4.5) vs. La Salle: Another toss up to me. Wichita has the advantage inside. La Salle was dominated on the offensive glass by Ole Miss and WSU is very strong inside. However, both teams have been inconsistent all year. No angle on this game if you look at the numbers. It seems like another game of conflicting styles.


To me this is about finding the team that is most likely to dictate the pace of play. If you can do that, I think you will have a successful Sweet 16. The question is, however, which teams will do this?

Thoughts and suggestions, more than just "Take IU and thank me later" are appreciated.

[Serbone]

Agree, tough 4 games, TBD by who dictates tempo in most cases.
Early in tourney I look for confernce vs conference results, close to home vs 2-3 hr time zone games, letdowns for teams that won their conference tourney and are huge favorites, other things of course like matchups, experience, coaching, overweighted "public" team spreads, etc.
But now the lines are more credible.
I just cannot see LaSalle staying so hot, they are shooting so well, now another location change, they are due to cool off as they did time to time in the A-10. They start missing those aggressive quick into the shot clock 3's and suddenly Wichita State might control things. LaSalle is small. It is all about shooting for them. Some quickness, yes. Interesting that linemakers made Wichita State such a decent 3.5-4 pt favorite, MVC team, wtf? Makes you think it will be Wichita State.
EVERYONE ONE EARTH says take Arizona, they are so mcuh closer to home & used to the Staples Center, OSU is 2,000 miles away, not deep, etc, etc. But at this stage the travel teams are pretty solid. So all this makes me wonder if OSU is the play. OSU is physically tough, if the refs "let them play" it helps them, OSU G Craft is a great defender, will crowd key G Lyons who never played PG until this yr... might cause some turnovers.
IMO Miami will have trouble covering... lost a key inside player a tall big 290 lbs 7 rebounds space filler... so they are down to a 6 man rotation, mosly smaller players.. everyone ON EARTH also says Marquette is so goddam lucky to be here. Makes me think "take the points".
Last, Cuse + 5.5 is SO tempting... and Indy just squeaked by Temple. I think the two superstars on Indiana will finally step up and make no mistake... to boot, Coach Crean knows the Cuse zone from his Marquette days, and they have 4+ days to prepare. Cuse has trouble scoring... if Indiana can up the tempo and hit some shots, they can roll.
So I say, Indiana, Marquette, OSU, and Wichita State. Nothing too big... tough games to cap.

[Capnick]

For the hundreth time in the last 3 days, reggie johnson missed a ton of time this year and was not a major conteributor to what miami accomplished this year... Last year he had a big season....

[Capnick]

SERBONE, you said miami with johnson out, they would have to play "smaller players"?... Kadji and Gamble are 6'11" and 6'10" respectively.. You want analysis from me , you got it...... Dont make false statements when picking games.. People read this forum and take info as correct....

[Capnick]

Also serbone, did you know other than Otule being 6 11, marquette doesnt have a player over 6'8"...so who has to play small? Nice analysis!!!!!

[Bbfromgpt]

I've watched probably 85% of Miami's games. They could get BLOWN OUT, but it's not because Reggie Johnson is out. He missed a lot of time this year, and his minutes were starting to go down as of late again. He gets minutes at home, because it fires the crowd up (cheering for the big guy) and gives the team a little boost. However, they really started limiting him and missing him will be pretty much an after thought. Very little impact if any on whether the canes advance or not.

[Bbfromgpt]

Truthfully after digging I think all four favs win, but go 2-2 ats

[Capnick]

This applies more to the games coming up when most teams are very close and emotion is running so high. NCAA games are unpredictable, to say the least, during the regular season. But add this kind of pressure to the mix and most numbers are thrown out the window because 18 - 22 year olds are more likely to fold. I'm just curious if you change your handicapping style at this point of the year? What angles do you find most telling? etc. The reason is that as I have looked over the games for today and tomorrow, it is just hard to find one single team that I feel has a decided advantage. Here is what I see for tonight:


1) Miami (-5.5) vs. Marquette: I would imagine the Miami is a strong public play after Marquette squeaked out two wins in Lexington, but I lean Marq +5.5. Personally, I thought the Big East was overrated all year and had Marq getting knocked out before this, but tf Marq can keep in the half court I like their chances. Marquette is deep with 9 guys playing double digit minutes. With Reggie Johnson out, that leaves a Miami with a 6 man rotation (5 guards/wings and Gamble inside). Even if Jekiri plays extended minutes, I see him struggling to handle Gardener inside. Marquette may not win, but I see it being a close game. Miami would rather speed it up, Marquette will look to slow it down. Who gets their way? I don't know.

2) IU (-5.5) vs. Syracuse: This is a game that I can't touch. Syracuse plays ridiculous defense and we all know about IU's offense. Which style of play wins out? This will determine the game, right? Syracuse cannot score with IU, but can IU score against the zone?

3) OSU (-3.5) vs. Zona: Who knows here? Arizona has disappointed for much of the season, but seem to be turning it around. Hard to bet against OSU as Craft should shut down Lyons. When Lyons is pressured you can expect wild, forced shots all over the court. However, Zona has the athletes to match OSU's wing players. Who matches up with Hill? Ross or Thompson? I doubt its Thomas as they won't risk foul trouble, so if its Ross or Thompson I have to like the Senior's chances against either Soph.

4) Wichita (-4.5) vs. La Salle: Another toss up to me. Wichita has the advantage inside. La Salle was dominated on the offensive glass by Ole Miss and WSU is very strong inside. However, both teams have been inconsistent all year. No angle on this game if you look at the numbers. It seems like another game of conflicting styles.


To me this is about finding the team that is most likely to dictate the pace of play. If you can do that, I think you will have a successful Sweet 16. The question is, however, which teams will do this?

Thoughts and suggestions, more than just "Take IU and thank me later" are appreciated.

Your analysis of the miami hurricanes is totally off.. You make it seem as if they are weak inside.... Do you realize Kadji is 6' 11', is a monster, and gamble is 2 inches TALLER than gardner!

[RavensFan2k3]

I've watched probably 85% of Miami's games. They could get BLOWN OUT, but it's not because Reggie Johnson is out. He missed a lot of time this year, and his minutes were starting to go down as of late again. He gets minutes at home, because it fires the crowd up (cheering for the big guy) and gives the team a little boost. However, they really started limiting him and missing him will be pretty much an after thought. Very little impact if any on whether the canes advance or not.

You're right...I watched all their games and attended over half of the home games. People definitely root for Reggie at home and he def has lost some minutes as the season went on.

[Capnick]

MIAMI is the DEEPER, BIGGER, more talented team here, end of story.... Are they guaranteed to win? NO..... But for my money, they DONT LOSE AGAINST MARQUETTE!

[Serbone]

Also serbone, did you know other than Otule being 6 11, marquette doesnt have a player over 6'8"...so who has to play small? Nice analysis!!!!!

Miami is smaller without Johnson, 7 rebounds per game and a space eater, key minutes to help take pressure off the other two bigs. Losing him WILL hurt.
And Marquette has deeper, athletic bigs. 2" taller is not always "better".
WOW, now you provide some details instead of lobbing out games with no rationale.
I am taking Marquette + 5.5.

[Bbfromgpt]

I don't think anyone is saying Marq +5.5 is a bad bet. They're a scrappy team that can force teams out of their comfort zone. Problem here is they won't raddle Miami, veteran team with possibly the best point guard in the game today. If they cover it will be because they played above their heads. If Miami comes out playing their A game Marq will be in trouble.

[RavensFan2k3]

I don't think anyone is saying Marq +5.5 is a bad bet. They're a scrappy team that can force teams out of their comfort zone. Problem here is they won't raddle Miami, veteran team with possibly the best point guard in the game today. If they cover it will be because they played above their heads. If Miami comes out playing their A game Marq will be in trouble.

I agree with this, but what I think people are saying is that Miami haven't been bringing their A game....and who knows if they will

[RPK2004]

Capnick, dude you're a dickhead. You sound like my sister so dramatic about everything. Relax bro, go get a job and don't spend so much time on here. Guy was just giving a fair opinion of how he sees the game playing out and I didn't see anything wrong with it. Important word there is 'opinion'. I actually agree with you I don't think Johnson makes a difference except to soak up a few minutes, I know its the internet and everything but show an ounce of respect. Truth is nobody really knows what'll happen. Either get a job or hit a bong

[Bbfromgpt]

Yea I can understand that and see where they're coming from. But, they played an excellent game against UNC he was much improved and UNC was having the offensive game of their season. They handled a solid pacific team who was of course just out matched. I don't think they played bad against Illinois. They just didnt do the things they needed to do to put of away earlier then they did. This game spread wise could go either way.

[Capnick]

I don't think anyone is saying Marq +5.5 is a bad bet. They're a scrappy team that can force teams out of their comfort zone. Problem here is they won't raddle Miami, veteran team with possibly the best point guard in the game today. If they cover it will be because they played above their heads. If Miami comes out playing their A game Marq will be in trouble.

Spot on... Its miami s game to lose.....

[Capnick]

Miami is smaller without Johnson, 7 rebounds per game and a space eater, key minutes to help take pressure off the other two bigs. Losing him WILL hurt.
And Marquette has deeper, athletic bigs. 2" taller is not always "better".
WOW, now you provide some details instead of lobbing out games with no rationale.
I am taking Marquette + 5.5.

Are you serious? You think MARQUETTE is the more deeper team? YOUR OUT OF YOUR MIND SERBONE!!!! MAKE SURE I HEAR FROM YOU AFTER MIAMI WINS...

[Serbone]

Also serbone, did you know other than Otule being 6 11, marquette doesnt have a player over 6'8"...so who has to play small? Nice analysis!!!!!

Marquette has 4 forwards that play significant time, 6'11 Otule, 6'8" Gardner, 6'7" Wilson, and 6'6" Anderson.

With Johnson out, Miami just has 2 forwards that have played significant minutes. Thus, "deeper" at the forward spot. Please see the context of what I wrote, I was indicating Marquette has "deeper" bigs. Read it.

I just got Marquette + 6. Good luck.

[Capnick]

Ok... Check back in after the game! GL..

[Louisvillekid1]

WagerType:PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
Date:	Team:
Mar 28	CBB [807] SYRACUSE +210
Mar 28	CBB [810] TOTAL u126½-110 (MARQUETTE vrs MIAMI FLORIDA)
Mar 28	CBB [813] TOTAL o134-110 (LASALLE vrs WICHITA STATE)
Risking 100 USD To Win 893 USD
Ticket#: 89617171

[Serbone]

Sure, if Miami plays its "A" game and hits a high % of 3's, Marquette is in trouble.

And I hate betting on a team coached by Curly Howard.

But I like the 6 points in this spot, a team that has been overly touted as "lucky" to be here.... though they were here last yr..... and a lot of times... and tied for first in the strong Big East @ 14-4. Not bad.

And the Big East has been disappointing but still plays good ball and is deeper this yr than the ACC... so I am taking the points on a neutral court.

I didnt say it was the goddam lock of my lifetime. The original poster asked for opinions, I agreed these today seem tough to call, and I clearly wrote in my original statement, "nothing big".

Small/medium on Indiana - 5.5, Marquette + 6, OSU - 3.5, and small on Wichita State - 4.5.

[Capnick]

Stop backpedaling serbone, you gave multiple reasons why marquette would win and or cover.. stand by it and we will see what happens!!!

[Louisvillekid1]

Marq will battle tonight and should be a close game. I'm not sure how bad for Miami it is having R Johnson out. They've played w/o him a lot earlier in the season and as long as they don't get into foul trouble they should be fine.

[RavensFan2k3]

WagerType:PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
Date:	Team:
Mar 28	CBB [807] SYRACUSE +210
Mar 28	CBB [810] TOTAL u126½-110 (MARQUETTE vrs MIAMI FLORIDA)
Mar 28	CBB [813] TOTAL o134-110 (LASALLE vrs WICHITA STATE)
Risking 100 USD To Win 893 USD
Ticket#: 89617171

I really value your opinion...and was wondering about your Syracuse pick. I remember in a similiar situation you picked Temple over NCST in the first round.

[Louisvillekid1]

I really value your opinion...and was wondering about your Syracuse pick. I remember in a similiar situation you picked Temple over NCST in the first round.

I haven't prepared a write up or anything but basically...

Indiana not used to a zone like that, and the length should make it hard on Zeller. To beat cuse zone you need a big man facilitator like how Gorgui Dieng does. Getting the ball at the high Foul Line and making the right pass. That is not part of Zeller's game, I'm thinking they might try to do that w/ Wofford (which I don't think he is capable of either) Indiana wants to run and the Zone should make them play a slower style then they want. Probably slightly quicker than the pace of the temple game.

MCW should take care of the ball and Sutherland simply doesn't miss from deep. CJ is going to be CJ, the only thing that worries me is Indiana getting second chance points, especially off missed 3's. Cuse struggle to defensive rebound at times in that zone.

Can't wait for the games to start, and Good Luck my man

[Serbone]

Stop backpedaling serbone, you gave multiple reasons why marquette would win and or cover.. stand by it and we will see what happens!!!

I am not backpedaling, kid.
I said originally I was not big on the 4 games today.
I bet Marquette + 6 medium/small (for me) as I said for good reasons.

[Dukebluejms]

I am not backpedaling, kid.
I said originally I was not big on the 4 games today.
I bet Marquette + 6 medium/small (for me) as I said for good reasons.

I went with Marq +5.5 and a small amount on the ML earlier today for similar reasons you listed above. Also, like the amount of $$$ coming in on Miami.

[YouHave2outs]

You think people it's worth knowing how the people that would post in this thread handicap games?

[Serbone]

A

Also serbone, did you know other than Otule being 6 11, marquette doesnt have a player over 6'8"...so who has to play small? Nice analysis!!!!!

Are you serious? You think MARQUETTE is the more deeper team? YOUR OUT OF YOUR MIND SERBONE!!!! MAKE SURE I HEAR FROM YOU AFTER MIAMI WINS...

MIAMI is the DEEPER, BIGGER, more talented team here, end of story.... Are they guaranteed to win? NO..... But for my money, they DONT LOSE AGAINST MARQUETTE!

Next time, do your homework, kid.
Miami goes in with only 2 "bigs", Marquette, regular season co-winner of the DEEP goddam Big East, goes in with 4 "bigs", getting 6 points on a neutral court.

[Capnick]

lET ME ASK YOU SOMETHING SERBONE.... Where the penetrate were you yesterday after santa clara ripped wright st? Do my homework? I did and they won by 13.......But you didnt come back after that game and say shit, did you?

[qb1789]

win some you lose some. that simple. Ne ways to answer the question of the OP.....YOU LISTEN TO THE SHARPEST OF THE SHARP AKA ME!!!!!