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First-round NCAA Tournament leans
MTSU +3 and ML vs. St. Mary's (might be a big play for me)
Boise State -1.5 vs. LaSalle
Wichita State +5 and ML vs. Pitt
Notre Dame -1 vs. Iowa State
Missouri -2.5 vs. Colorado State
Montana +14 vs. Syracuse
Bucknell +3 vs. Butler
Akron +7 vs. VCU
Creighton -3 vs. Cincinnati
New Mexico State +9 vs. St. Louis
NC State -4 vs. Temple
Thoughts?
Like a lot of these coin kinda think montanas gona get smacked around tho
Boise St looks great. They're a dynamic team that has been battle tested with a solid non-conference schedule.
I think Boise is a better team, but they travel to Dayton where the crowd will be all Pro-LaSalle. LaSalle's guards are really good and they pass so well. I think the Jet lag will cause Boise to be rusty and LaSalle wins by 5-6pts.
Took a few out and added these:Originally Posted by No coincidences
Valparaiso +10.5 vs. Michigan State
Davidson +3.5 vs. Marquette
Florida-Gulf Coast +13 vs. Georgetown
Not sure about valpo or witchita but like the rest. Add Cal+3 and Iowa State pick to the list. GL
Valpo is a very experienced team that is the best in the nation from 2, and I don't really think MSU is playing its best ball right now. I'm admittedly wavering a little on Wichita.
I'll look into Cal and ISU, HW. Thanks.
like the over in the valpo/msu gm, sux i played it early cause of coarse it has dropped a couple points but seriously dont understand why besides the early start (played before i saw times)..dont think sparty has any problems getting into the 70s here and like valpo to make enough of a gm out of it where think they get this number before the fouling begins..
Hey Banker.
What sides are you leaning so far? You know me -- I stay away from totals.
all ive played side wise thus far is mizzou-2.5 and montana+14
MSU is too athletic for Valpo I think. Izzo is also pretty familiar with the Valpo program since he snatched one there best players last year from them in Brandon Wood. Also basically a home game for MSU. But I could see your points wwith Valpo too. They are a pretty good defensive club and that c ould keep them in the game i suppose. I think the top 5 Big 10 teams all walk into sweet 16 without much problems. Could even see Minnesota upsetting Florida possibly. If Minny brings there A game they could beat Florida. They actually match up pretty well with them I think.
Love MTSU, Boise, Wichita, ND, and NC State. Like Mizzou and Montana. The rest are not worthy of a play imo
Like Mizzzou too GL banker.
Minnesota would be dangerous if they'd get out of their own way. Mbakwe's too good to be playing so shitty. I'm still tempted to take the Gophers and lay the 3 vs. UCLA, though, because the Bruins are awful on the glass.
My bracket looks like this (regional finals on):'
(1) Louisville over (2) Duke
(3) New Mexico over (1) Gonzaga
(3) Florida over (4) Michigan
(2) Miami over (4) Syracuse
Louisville over New Mexico
Florida over Miami
Louisville over Florida
I have Bucknell and Davidson winning for early upsets, and NC State ousting Indiana to get back to the Sweet 16. Having a hard time figuring out the Midwest; that's why I hesitate having the Cardinals winning it all, because that region is incredibly tough.
God I love UNLV you think Cal can beat them HW? I have UNLV in a elite 8 in a 50 dollar board maybe I should reconsider...I know that the Cal game is in California that's the only thing that had me second guessing it.
Why stay away from totals? Totals are much more beatable than sides if you can crunch numbers and know coach tendencies. Especially during tournament time.
NCAA tournament spreads as a whole are pretty efficient, the lines almost all seem pretty sharp to me. i see some soft lines on CBI And CIT though.
You obviously don't know my track record with totals. LOL. They're "easy" until I bet them.
I actually had exact same Final 4 at first, but I am going back through with more of an analytical approach and think I am going to change things. I just can't see how Big 10 doesn't get a team in Final 4 and hate that almost every person has Louisville winning. I also really am starting to doubt New Mexico ability to beat Ohio State. Kind of think Ohio State might be the under the radar team that makes a run. Thomas has been solid all year, but Kraft, Smith, Thompson and Ross have been all elevating there games as of late. They lack a little bit of an inside presence but they are one of the most sound Defensive teams I have watched this year. Scott and Kraft are probably best pair of defensive guards on any team in NCAA besides Louisville
Yeah I do like Cal a bit think they have good interior D and like Crabbe and Cobb to have big games. Crabbe will be the key though he has to play good or they have no shot. Think UNLV may be a little flat in this game and Cal has some revenge here as well. Nothing I am super nuts about though either way so if you like UNLV I would just stick with them.
I agree re: Louisville. Always hate to go with the consensus team.
I'm worried that the Big Ten beat each other to a pulp all year long and will actually underachieve in this tournament. I'm not a fan of Ohio State. I've been impressed by what Kraft has done offensively down the stretch, but still feel like they're Thomas and very little else at crunch time. MSU is in a killer bracket, I've never been sold on Wisconsin as anything other than a typical overachieving Bo Ryan group that's a guard or two short, not a fan of Crean getting the Hoosiers very far, Minnesota and Illinois' struggles speak for themselves. Michigan seems to be a nice resurrection pick, but like OSU, they're weak underneath. In other words, there were reasons I didn't advance a single Big Ten team to Atlanta.
Cal's been bitten by the Pac-12 enigma bug, though. Why are they so erratic?
What do you think about Duke in the MW, HOT? I'm baffled by that region.
Coin I'm baffled as to why you've taken so many favorites? Is it that you want to turn in a winning record during the tourney or are you trying to reduce your post count when they cover?
Just messing with you bud, I'm on a few of these as well, lets get it.
I think the Spartans out physical them and win that game with defense and a big rebounding advantage. Appling is key to MSU makng a run. He has to play solid not great. Don't turn the ball over and realize your not a 3 pt shooter and drive the damn ball. Let Harris handle the 3 point shooting. Feed Nix in the post and keep Payne active on both sides of ball. And hope Dawson snaps out of his funk.
pretty similar brackets (cant be good for either of us, lol)..really our only major difference is i have zona beating nm and getting to elite 8 but they very well could fukk me in round 1.. have bucknell, davidson, and fla gulf coast i think my biggest 3 upsets with couple 12s (ole piss/cal, inevitably those be the 12s that lose) and i think unc beating ku (lack of respect for ku and thinking sweet 16 far as they go anyway)..i put canes over lou mainly same reason you hesitant on lou cause think their path much tougher..
Agree. I just don't see it with Appling or Dawson -- their slumps have reached the "prolonged" status now. Appling's jumper is broken, and I sometimes forget Dawson is even on the court -- a far cry from the impact he made a year ago.
I don't think Arizona has any trouble with Belmont. Arizona can be dangerous in this tourney if they focus.
Great thread!! How do you guys see the following games playing out.
Illinois v Colorado
UNC v Nova
OSU v Oregon
Pitt v WIchita State
Wisconsin v Mississippi
Also Oklahoma v San Diego st
I like Davidson to, but I like Southern getting 22 vs Gonzaga. Do I think Gonzaga wins this game yes, but I feel that Southern is going to keep it close.
I like the NC State, Bucknell, and Notre dame picks.
Thursday leans
St. Mary's -1
Bucknell/Butler under 122/1H under 56
Okie State -2
Southern/Gonzaga under 126'
UO/Okie State under 134'
SDSU/UM over 139'
Belmont +4'
Colorado State +3
CSU TT over 70
Missou/CSU over 143
MLs
Sparty
Pitt
SLU
Michigan
VCU
was considering ML parlay with top 5 Big Ten teams (IU, OSU, MSU, UM, Wisky) but not sure if IU ML will be available early enough. MSU + UM + OSU + Wisky is -109, i'm sure that adding SLU to that gets it to plus-money.
love NC State Friday, my favorite play of first round
i came in liking wiscy but have since put ole piss to win that gm in my brackets,, not sure if i bet it unless it drives up a little further...kinda leaning to okie st..really like zona but have them going so far doubt i bet them..you have any thoughts on the valpo/msu total? i took over early (of coarse it went down but not necessarily a bad thing for me) was thinking bout adding at the shorter number, only thing i dont like that it the early tip... hope all is well brother..
oh and we bumping heads in mizzou gm, think pressey has to much quickness against the kid with a bum ankle and dont think mizzou will get owned on glass like csu is use to doing..
what's up, Bank? yeah, all is great. took a break from posting and went on a genuine heater the last 2+ weeks (hit a bunch of CBB-NHL ML parlays, tailing some sharp NHL guys on twitter, limiting number of plays). now i have a nice roll for the tourney. thinking about posting picks but then again, i've sucked posting since the Music City Bowl.
don't like that we're opposite on so many as always respect your opinion. i could be talked out of CSU, at least into passing. it was my favorite dog tomorrow. one of my good friends went to Missou, lives in the Lou, went to Missou/UF, knows his hoops and agrees with me on that game. my model loves CSU, has them a good 3-4 points better than Missou (for better or worse, my model skews towards kenpom, liking teams like Florida, Wisky, Pitt, SLU).
of my ATS leans, besides CSU, like St. Mary's and Belmont best. i think that a Big Ten top team ML parlay is fkn loot. Wisconsin and Ole Miss both off of three-game runs in conference tourneys and Ole Miss is a jump shooting team. Wisky will fugly them up, i say.
speaking of fugly, what do you think of SLU?
here is my list of bold predictions for the tourney:
- SLU beats Louisville
- VCU beats Kansas
- Final Four: Miami, Florida, Ohio State, SLU (champ: U)
- an A-10 team will make the Final Four. can't find that prop available, but SLU final four is +1400 and VCU is +2500 at 5D
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