1. 03-17-13 09:27 PM #1
    texhooper
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    so florida is still the number 1 team according to kenpom

    does anyone have a good reason as to why? i always read these halfassed everyman explanations, but no one every really explains how this happens.

    they're clearly not the best team in the country. while we're at it, what no coin has been screaming about pitt is ridiculous also. what gives?
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  2. 03-17-13 09:29 PM #2
    Owls
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    Florida has blown out inferior competition, running up the score and boosting their ratings. Computers love to see teams blow out other teams, it gives them a huge boost in the model numbers. But Florida can't win a close game to save their lives though. Which is a bad sign for their tournament hopes.
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  3. 03-17-13 09:31 PM #3
    No coincidences
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    While we're at it, explain the love for Pitt and Minnesota.



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  4. 03-17-13 09:31 PM #4
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by Owls View Post
    Florida has blown out inferior competition, running up the score and boosting their ratings. Computers love to see teams blow out other teams, it gives them a huge boost in the model numbers. But Florida can't win a close game to save their lives though. Which is a bad sign for their tournament hopes.
    I'd like to see your bracket, Owls. Will you be posting your picks?
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  5. 03-17-13 09:31 PM #5
    texhooper
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    but how is 'advanced analytics', as it is commonly referred to, so susceptible to running the score up against inferior competition?
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  6. 03-17-13 09:32 PM #6
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by texhooper View Post
    but how is 'advanced analytics', as it is commonly referred to, so susceptible to running the score up against inferior competition?
    Yeah, you'd figure that would protect against it vs. the opposite.
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  7. 03-17-13 09:32 PM #7
    texhooper
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    While we're at it, explain the love for Pitt and Minnesota.



    i included you in my initial post haha...
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  8. 03-17-13 09:34 PM #8
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by texhooper View Post
    i included you in my initial post haha...
    Yeah, I just saw that. LOL.

    The Pitt love all year has been baffling.
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  9. 03-17-13 09:35 PM #9
    Frisco
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    These ratings systems are all garbage. Don't they have st. Marys as like 21st overall in kenpom?
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  10. 03-17-13 09:37 PM #10
    texhooper
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frisco View Post
    These ratings systems are all garbage. Don't they have st. Marys as like 21st overall in kenpom?
    22nd. memphis is 39. st. mary's is like the southern miss of their league, and memphis should handle them with not a lot of trouble. middle tennessee, also, is like 32. these two teams are the last 4 in!
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  11. 03-17-13 09:40 PM #11
    k13
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    Who says they are not the best teams?

    They can beat any team in the country.
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  12. 03-17-13 09:41 PM #12
    Owls
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    No, I don't fill out brackets. They are a waste of time for me. I will be focusing more on the NIT, CBI, and CIT games, even though the games are boring. Much bigger edge betting there than in the NCAAs. I'll take money over excitement anyday.

    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    I'd like to see your bracket, Owls. Will you be posting your picks?
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  13. 03-17-13 09:41 PM #13
    texhooper
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    i am not against the use of advanced analytics myself. i actually enjoy looking at them and incorporating them into my picks and whatnot. but i am seeing that there many more outliers than one would think, assuming these numbers were so advanced.

    another example, i think memphis last year finished 8 in kenpom. they lost in the first round to saint louis. a saint louis team who is nowhere near as good as this year's team. i tried to find last year's full list a couple of months ago and couldn't find it. would love to compare those to tournament success.
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  14. 03-17-13 09:43 PM #14
    texhooper
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    Who says they are not the best teams?

    They can beat any team in the country.
    who, florida, pitt, minnesota? you got jokes. and i laughed...
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  15. 03-17-13 09:43 PM #15
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by Owls View Post
    No, I don't fill out brackets. They are a waste of time for me. I will be focusing more on the NIT, CBI, and CIT games, even though the games are boring. Much bigger edge betting there than in the NCAAs. I'll take money over excitement anyday.
    Any insight would be appreciated -- even if it isn't gambling related.
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  16. 03-17-13 09:43 PM #16
    yisman
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    Florida may not be number 1. kenpom is through SATURDAY. Not updated for today's loss.
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  17. 03-17-13 09:44 PM #17
    k13
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    Odds to win 2013 South Region
    09:00 AM 6551 Kansas +300
    6552 Georgetown +350
    6553 Florida +325
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  18. 03-17-13 09:44 PM #18
    Frisco
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    Memphis got a bad draw last yr but this bracket looks promising for them
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  19. 03-17-13 09:44 PM #19
    k13
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    Minny -3.5 faves over ucla as #11 seed.
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  20. 03-17-13 09:45 PM #20
    texhooper
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    Quote Originally Posted by Owls View Post
    No, I don't fill out brackets. They are a waste of time for me. I will be focusing more on the NIT, CBI, and CIT games, even though the games are boring. Much bigger edge betting there than in the NCAAs. I'll take money over excitement anyday.
    you gonna keep a anti-ncaa tourney thread? i think you should.
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  21. 03-17-13 09:45 PM #21
    texhooper
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    Quote Originally Posted by yisman View Post
    Florida may not be number 1. kenpom is through SATURDAY. Not updated for today's loss.
    nope, through sunday. hit refresh.
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  22. 03-17-13 09:46 PM #22
    yisman
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    yeah you're right, barely over Louisville. I checked a few hours ago and they hadn't updated for today's games yet. Looks like ken ran an update after the selection show

    Quote Originally Posted by texhooper View Post
    i tried to find last year's full list a couple of months ago and couldn't find it. would love to compare those to tournament success.


    It's right there on the home page...
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  23. 03-17-13 09:50 PM #23
    texhooper
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    Quote Originally Posted by yisman View Post


    It's right there on the home page...
    hahahaha....oh man...it sure is, huh...wow...
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  24. 03-17-13 09:51 PM #24
    Frisco
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    Minny -3.5 faves over ucla as #11 seed.
    Injured player with a lil big 10 bias sprinkled on top
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  25. 03-17-13 10:06 PM #25
    texhooper
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    so let's talk about minnesota...why are they so damn high then? they had a pitiful finish to their season, and didn't have a history of blowing teams out.
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  26. 03-17-13 10:09 PM #26
    thetrinity
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    florida being number 1 isnt really surprising since they have a lot of huge wins and tight losses, like owls said that probably doesnt bode well for ncaa hopes.
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  27. 03-17-13 10:11 PM #27
    Owls
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    I'll post some plays I have for the CBI and CIT, and perhaps some NIT games. And the team that I think is the most underrated in the NCAA tournament is Michigan. They will be a tough out with all that NBA talent, and Beilein is a good halfcourt coach.

    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Any insight would be appreciated -- even if it isn't gambling related.
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  28. 03-17-13 11:05 PM #28
    k13
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    pinnacle has sick low odds on minny relatively speaking. Futures.
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  29. 03-17-13 11:41 PM #29
    k13
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    Someone just hammered florida at pinnacle.
    They are far the favorites to win the region now.
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  30. 03-17-13 11:41 PM #30
    texhooper
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    minny isn't winning the championship. so that doesn't really matter.
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  31. 03-18-13 02:32 AM #31
    ChiLLx
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    Someone just hammered florida at pinnacle.
    They are far the favorites to win the region now.
    Lol the 1 seed is getting +300 to win their region

    Kansas sucks
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