With Michigan and Duke losing this weekend, Louisville is expected to take over the number one spot. This is a nationally televised game on ESPN at 7 ET. Both teams are playing on little rest having each played games on Saturday.

Connecticut

Connecticut comes into the game 12-3 on the season and 2-1 in the Big East. They upset #17 Notre Dame on the road Saturday 65-58. After Louisville, they next play at unranked Pittsburgh on January 19th. They average 72.5 ppg and allow 63.9 ppg.

UCONN has had its struggles this year getting outrebounded 10 of the first 11 games and ranking 262nd in the nation in rebounds per game. Although, they have won the last 2 games in rebounds thanks to the help of 6’9 junior Tyler Olander. Olander had a career high 16 points on 8-9 shooting and 7 rebounds against Notre Dame.

Napier and Boatright are both having excellent years averaging over 16 points, and should be able to handle the pressure that Louisville throws at them.

Louisville

Louisville is 15-1 on the year and 3-0 in the Big East. They’ve won 11 in a row and their last loss came back in November to Duke by 5. They’re coming off a 26 point home win against USF and play at home against #7 Syracuse on Saturday.

Louisville is going to have a big advantage inside with Chane Behanan back and Gorgui Dieng playing healthy. Behanan brought in 12 rebounds in the first half against USF while Dieng is averaging 9.6 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks.

Louisville also has a very solid frontcourt. Although, Russ Smith who is averaging 18.7 points per game has struggled lately. After 3 consecutive games of 20+ points he is just 4-24 from the field in his last two.

Bottom Line

Kevin Ollie has Connecticut playing well and they should have a little extra motivation to knock off top ranked Louisville in front of their home crowd. This is one of the biggest games of the year for UCONN who is serving a one year post season ban and won’t be going to the NCAA tournament. Beating Louisville at home would be a reward in itself.

Louisville’s going to dominate the glass, but they need to get Russ Smith going. If they can pressure Shabazz Napier and force him into some turnovers and poor shots they’ll be alright.

Connecticut needs to limit the offensive rebounds for Louisville and not turn the ball over. After a big win on Saturday and now playing another top team at home, energy won’t be a problem. They just need to be able to keep their composure.

With little time to prepare, this game being played at Connecticut is going to give them a big advantage. I could see Connecticut jumping out to an early lead and Louisville having to claw their way back. It should be a close one and 7 points is a lot in a game like this. I’d look deeper into betting UCONN and the points.