[Robert Ferringo]

Below are some numbers for Friday’s college basketball action. (Man, I am so glad the season is here!!!)

The first question will be: where did the lines come from? These are my projected spreads, based on some math models and just my own “oddsmaking”. They will not be exact, but I feel very confident that most of them (especially the marquee games) will be close. Some of the 20+ point lines and some of the small mid-major vs. small mid-major games (like Arkansas-Little Rock vs. UT-Martin) can be tougher to call earlier in the year as well.

And I can’t predict what the money will do to the numbers when they get released.

But I will be kind of surprised if the majority of these numbers aren’t around a point here or there. We’ll see.

Anyway, it’s a base line. Thought it might be helpful for those other college hoops-crazed bettors out there.


Ohio State (+7.5) vs. Marquette
Indiana (-31) vs. Bryant
Michigan State (-6.5) vs. Connecticut
Minnesota (-17) vs. American
Iowa (-24.5) vs. UT-Pan Am
Illinois (-22) vs. Colgate
Louisville (-18) vs. Manhattan
Pittsburgh (-18) vs. Mt. St. Mary’s
Georgetown (+5.5) vs. Florida
Rutgers (-15) vs. St. Peter’s
Seton Hall (-14.5) vs. UM-KC
DePaul (-16.5) vs. UC-Riverside
UCLA (-12.5) vs. Indiana State
Stanford (-13) vs. San Francisco
Colorado (-11) vs. Wofford
Oregon State (-8.5) vs. Niagara
Duke (-24) vs. Georgia State
North Carolina (-22.5) vs. Gardner-Webb
N.C. State (-17) vs. Miami, OH
Miami (-16) vs. Stetson
Florida State (-14.5) vs. South Alabama
Virginia (Pk) vs. George Mason
Georgia Tech (-7) vs. Tulane
Maryland (+15) vs. Kentucky
Wake Forest (-8.5) vs. Radford
Alabama (-5) vs. South Dakota State
Tennessee (-22) vs. Kennesaw State
Mississippi (-21) vs. Miss. Valley State
Georgia (-13.5) vs. Jacksonville
Arkansas (-18) vs. Sam Houston State
Texas A&M (-6.5) vs. Louisiana Tech
LSU (-2.5) vs. UC-Santa Barbara
Mississippi State (-9.5) vs. Troy
Colorado State (-8) vs. Montana
Kansas (-25) vs. SE Missouri State
Texas (-15) vs. Fresno State
Kansas State (-19) vs. North Dakota
Baylor (-10) vs. Lehigh
Oklahoma State (-20) vs. UC-Davis
TCU (-3) vs. Cal Poly
St. Louis (-10) vs. USC-Upstate
VCU (-11) vs. UF-Gulf Coast
Richmond (-17) vs. Liberty
Fordham (+1) vs. Texas State
Creighton (-9) vs. North Texas
Bradley (-9.5) vs. Eastern Illinois
Gonzaga (-22) vs. Southern Utah
BYU (-12) vs. Tennessee State
Pepperdine (+6) vs. CS-Northridge
UTEP (-6.5) vs. Oral Roberts
Denver (-1) vs. Iona
Idaho (-5.5) vs. right State
Siena (-2) vs. Vermont
Rider (+4.5) vs. Robert Morris
Valparaiso (-11.5) vs. Georgia Southern
Toledo (-2.5) vs. Loyola-Chicago
Drexel (-4.5) vs. Kent State
Northeastern (-5) vs. Boston U.
Towson (+18) vs. Charleston
Akron (-7) vs. Coastal Carolina
UA-Little Rock (-10) vs. UT-Martin
Austin Peay (-5) vs. Samford
Morehead State (+6.5) vs. Long Island
Syracuse (-2) vs. SDSU ---- This game was moved to Sunday

I probably left some games off that have lines and some of the games that I made lines for probably won’t be available. But, again, here’s what I am basing my expectations on for Friday’s action.

Also, not really sure what the protocol here is in terms of posting this thread in different places. I was going to toss it in college hoops, but it seems kind of dead in there. May do both. If this is a bad idea or against some unwritten forum rule, please let me know.

Good luck.

[Robert Ferringo]

And in case anyone was wondering, I spoke to a sportsbook director in Vegas and he thinks the lines won't be out until Thursday in the early evening (I'm guessing probably around 5 p.m. EST). That surprised me a little, since I figured they would want to get them up and out and get people betting on them. We will see.

I'm counting the minutes.

[marcojuiceman]

I will just wait and see

[TPowell]

4PM? Thats amazing. I have work left to do so works great for me

[rm18]

Is the first line a typo? Marquette has no chance to be favored over Ohio St..

[Robert Ferringo]

Yes, that is a typo.

Should be Ohio State -7.5 vs. Marquette

[milwaukee mike]

Is the first line a typo? Marquette has no chance to be favored over Ohio St..

as a marquette season ticket holder and booster i sadly have to agree with that

[HoulihansTX]

Give me Ohio St, and UNT for the max please.

[HoulihansTX]

Highly doubt the +9 with UNT.

[Robert Ferringo]

Yeah, I thought that North Texas line was high as well. But Creighton's lines are always pumped up when they are at home and the books don't give the Sun Belt teams any respect. The math models said 11, but I knew that was too high so I dropped it a couple points.

I actually don't think it will get below 8.0 though.

[Robert Ferringo]

Last year they were 22-point dogs against Texas, 17-point dogs against Mississippi State and 7-point dogs against Texas Tech. Also, they were 11.5-point dogs at LMU last year.

Granted, those lines were all early in the year. But Creighton is a Top 20 team playing at home. Their line will be juiced.

But, again, we'll see. These are just projections.

[Wilfred]

Damn I was going to put a lot on Ohio State ML haha. Though it might be a really close game, see how Amir Williams can replace Sullinger.

[TPowell]

where is the game? On a neutral court, I have OSU 3 points better

[TPowell]

wish these showed which were neutral site games. Have my number in front of me

[milwaukee mike]

where is the game? On a neutral court, I have OSU 3 points better

carrier classic, on an aircraft carrier in south carolina friday night

[TPowell]

I've got

+4 on GTown vs Florida
+14 on Maryland vs Kentucky
23.5 on Kansas vs SE Missouri State
20.5 on NC State vs Miami (Ohio)
10 on UConn vs Michigan State
16 on UCLA vs Indiana State
3.5 on Virginia vs George Mason
6 on Kent State vs Drexel
20 on Rutgers/St Peters
4 on Colorado State/Montana
22.5 on Oklahoma State/UC Davis
12 on Oregon State/Niagara
3.5 on Syracuse/SDSU

[mynameismud]

why are msu and other teams plaing in germany on friday? to my knowledge, they have never played there before.

[milwaukee mike]

tpowell if oregon st is anywhere close to double digits, jump on niagara imho

[TPowell]

tpowell if oregon st is anywhere close to double digits, jump on niagara imho

I disagree, Robinson has built some talent in that program. I think they'll take another step forward this year

[milwaukee mike]

I disagree, Robinson has built some talent in that program. I think they'll take another step forward this year

niagara didn't lose anyone, and got the piece they needed. potential ncaa tourney team and no way should they be 12 pt dogs to a team i would put "maybe" a couple points better on a neutral court.

if i posted a line i would put oregon st -7 out there and hope people pounded the beavers

[TPowell]

I agree they'll me much better but they were around 11 points worse than Oregon State last year on a neutral court. I have no problem saying they'll be closer to OSU this year but not sure I'd go crazy

[CanuckG]

Gonzaga laying 22 hmmm....

[Robert Ferringo]

Yeah, I am hoping the books oversell Oregon State and lay out double-digits in that one.

My projection actually had the line around 10 but I adjusted it down because I expect the sharp money to get down on Niagara.

I too like the Purple Eagles. They have a really good program that's just had a couple down years. But they will definitely bounce back this year and should be in the Top 4-5 in a very good Metro Conference this year.

[Robert Ferringo]

TP, I think you are overselling Michigan State. I think that line starts at 6.5, but then I can see it going up a little bit. Even without Calhoun, Connecticut is going to get some solid action. They are still enough of a name that I couldn't see that spread getting past 8.

I would also give anything - ANYTHING - for that Colorado State line to be closer to your projection than mine. And if Will Cherry was playing it might've been 4.0. But without him, that is no way that line is going to hold below 6.0. I am on that game no matter what though. The Rams are legit.

[tto827]

I feel like college basketball might be SBR's forte with all this going on, not just , but actual discussion and capping. I'm very impressed all of you . North Texas definitely looks good, along with my blue devils.

[Robert Ferringo]

I will be giving the Blue Devils a look, simply because Georgia State is starting completely over from scratch after MASSIVELY overachieving last year. They will have some growing pains.

[TPowell]

TP, I think you are overselling Michigan State. I think that line starts at 6.5, but then I can see it going up a little bit. Even without Calhoun, Connecticut is going to get some solid action. They are still enough of a name that I couldn't see that spread getting past 8.

I would also give anything - ANYTHING - for that Colorado State line to be closer to your projection than mine. And if Will Cherry was playing it might've been 4.0. But without him, that is no way that line is going to hold below 6.0. I am on that game no matter what though. The Rams are legit.

my capping is without factoring in injuries for the most part. I don't factor that in until the day before. As for UConn, they lost a lot of talent and Ollie is way too unproven as a coach. This won't be a very good UConn team. Michigan State returns a good deal of talent outside of Green and they add a legit tough 2-3 in Gary Harris

[CollegeOverUnder]

Cherry out for that game? Thanks for the heads up man

TP, I think you are overselling Michigan State. I think that line starts at 6.5, but then I can see it going up a little bit. Even without Calhoun, Connecticut is going to get some solid action. They are still enough of a name that I couldn't see that spread getting past 8.

I would also give anything - ANYTHING - for that Colorado State line to be closer to your projection than mine. And if Will Cherry was playing it might've been 4.0. But without him, that is no way that line is going to hold below 6.0. I am on that game no matter what though. The Rams are legit.

[zoo youk]

loving Florida. Georgetown lost everybody and have been getting worse with every passing season. Donovans Gators are getting stronger and stronger. they return some real good experience and explosiveness even though they lost Bradley Beal, they are still a very good team.

also, LSU USCB...is Orlando Johnson and James Nunanlly still at Santa Barb? only reason I can see that line being so low. but could have sworn OJ was a senior last year. GauchoJake should be able to answer.

[zoo youk]

Colorado State is a ATS machine at home. will be on them as long as they are at home. If Cherry is out for Montana that is massive.

[zoo youk]

Hornung for CSU came on so strong last year, going to be a double double machine and hopefully Dorian Green will take that next step to be an elite PG. Greg Smith a beast on the low blocks too.

[Robert Ferringo]

TP, definitely not saying Connecticut will cover. Just saying that the majority of bettors in that game, at this stage, aren't going to dig that deeply into it. "Connecticut" is still a name team and they will take in a lot of public betting. I think the line is around 6.5 or maybe 7, and I think Michigan State can cover that.

zoo youk, you are forgetting another key piece: Colton Iverson.

[zoo youk]

TP, definitely not saying Connecticut will cover. Just saying that the majority of bettors in that game, at this stage, aren't going to dig that deeply into it. "Connecticut" is still a name team and they will take in a lot of public betting. I think the line is around 6.5 or maybe 7, and I think Michigan State can cover that.

zoo youk, you are forgetting another key piece: Colton Iverson.

yes and they get Jesse Carr back as a RS Sr too

[zoo youk]

what the fuk is up with that St Louis line? they should be -20. playing a D2 team and are the odds on favorite to win the A10

[Robert Ferringo]

ZY, UCSB lost everybody. I mean EVERYBODY. LBSU is trying to replace their massive talent drain by relying on transfers. But UCSB is going with younger players and trying to build back up through recruiting.

Needless to say, there will be growing pains.

I cashed with LSU a LOT last year. They were way underrated. And they would've been a tournament team this year if so many guys hadn't transferred or declared. Trent Johnson is a retard and was a terrible in-game coach. Johnny Jones, formerly of North Texas, is taking over.

I really like Anthony Hickey. He is lightning fast and by the time he's a senior he will be one of the best guards in the SEC. Kind of like a poor man's Kenny Boynton, only not as good of a shooter. (But then again, neither was Boynton when he was a frosh.)

And the key to LSU is, obviously, if Johnny O'Bryant can make some strides. They are going to play Hickey and Andre Stringer together a ton, so LSU is going to be very, very small. O'Bryant needs to be a double-double guy every night for them to compete and we'll see if he can thrive in Jones' dual-post offense.

They will be a better bet in the nonconference than in league play though. I'm not nearly as high on the Tigers this year, but I agree this can be a very good spot.