1. 03-15-12 01:31 AM #1
    RotoProphecy
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    Simple Over/Under Formula for the Big Dance

    Before everyone gets judgemental about this, it's just an experiment to see how it works out over all the tournament games. I've sorta been doing this with my over/under choices where the number is greater than the projected line, I bet the over. If it's not I stay away because personally I hate betting the under. In this case, I will bet both. I will be using all the over/under total listed on SBR. Here is the simple formula, and I apologize to all the math illiterates.

    Avg PPG (Team A) + Avg PPG (Team B) = Total Avg PPG
    Avg PA (Team A) + Avg PA (Team B) = Total Avg PA
    Total Avg PPG + Total Avg PA / 2 = Projected Score

    Lets see how this works out throughout the big dance. I'm predicting to come out with 68% right.

    Record after 16 games:
    8-8
    Last edited by RotoProphecy; 03-15-12 at 11:36 PM.
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  2. 03-15-12 01:42 AM #2
    lite1up
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    you'll hit 50% long run, you're basically using the base formula Vegas uses to determine a fair line, minus the outside factors that go into determining said line.
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  3. 03-15-12 01:45 AM #3
    RotoProphecy
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    March 15th (16 games - round 2)

    Colorado St./Murray St. - O136 (137)
    So. Miss./Kansas St. - O133.5 (136)
    Davidson/Louisville - U139.5 (138)
    Montana/Wisconsin - O118 (125)
    BYU/Marquette - U153 (143.5)
    UNC-Asheville/Syracuse - U147.5 (143.5)
    Long Beach St./New Mexico - U137 (135)
    Harvard/Vanderbilt - O123.5 (129)
    W. Kentucky/Kentucky - U136 (134.5)
    VCU/Wichita St. - U136 (134)
    West Virginia/Gonzaga - O132.5 (137.5)
    South Dakota St./Baylor - O140 (142)
    UConn/Iowa St. - U137 (136.5)
    New Mexico St./Indiana - U154 (145)
    Loyola MD/Ohio St. - O131 (133)
    Colorado/UNLV - O135 (137)
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  4. 03-15-12 01:46 AM #4
    RotoProphecy
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    Quote Originally Posted by lite1up View Post
    you're basically using the base formula Vegas uses to determine a fair line, minus the outside factors that go into determining said line.
    I am aware
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  5. 03-16-12 12:12 AM #5
    RotoProphecy
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    March 16th (16 games - round 2)

    Texas vs Cincinnati - O129 (134.5)
    NC State vs San Diego State - O137.5 (137.5)
    Alabama vs Creighton -O133 (136.5)
    Virginia vs Florida - O122 (129.5)
    St. Bonaventure vs Florida State - O130.5 (134.5)
    Belmont vs Georgetown - O133 (138.5)
    Vermont vs North Carolina - U144 (138.5)
    Norfolk St. vs Missouri - U144 (140.5)
    Saint Louis vs Memphis - O129.5 (132.5)
    Lehigh vs Duke - U148.5 (144)
    Ohio vs Michigan - O125.5 (130.5)
    Purdue vs St. Mary's - U140 (137.5)
    Long Island vs Michigan State - U155.5 (145)
    Xavier vs Notre Dame - O124 (134)
    South Florida vs Temple - O121 (131)
    Detroit vs Kansas - U142.5 (139)
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