[Frisco]

Can't believe this line. Figured it would open closer to double digits.

[mortgagekev]

Revenge game and Florida definitely needs this to get into tourney...not sure which way to lean though

[zacharyj53]

Revenge game and Florida definitely needs this to get into tourney...not sure which way to lean though

What, UF is in the tourney already.

[mortgagekev]

oh my bad, i didn't think they were

[BernardMadoff]

Double digits, lol, for what reason.

[zacharyj53]

Double digits, lol, for what reason.

I imagine it will be the biggest public play due to that line.

[Balco10]

Frisco thinks he is sharper than Vegas!

[Balco10]

Frisco its a lock, so put your balance on Tucky large!

[mortgagekev]

See how the line moves tomorrow- most likely up, but this reminds me of today's drake and seton hall, drake +5 @ home winning outright

[Sunde91]

UK off a 30 pt home win, urgency is down, on the road for a pretty meaningless game. The thought of the #1 overall doesnt get these kids up for a game, they just want the tourneys to start

Looks like it will be -4.5 shortly though

[HoulihansTX]

Kentucky's effort each game is impressive. They want to dominate their opponents.

[Sunde91]

FLA 1h probably best play

if UK is leading at half, their heads are in it and they close out FG easily
if FLA leads, UK could wake up and storm back like @MSU down 13 ended pushing -9

these kids shouldnt be in it for the 1st half though. early Sunday tip on the road, meaningless game in their eyes, they think they the shit now after 21 straight wins and 30 pt rout vs UGA

[Ghenghis Kahn]

i like the under here.

[Dtown13]

Double digits, lol, for what reason.

Losses to Vandy by 10, Ga by 14, Tenn at home by 5 however the game wasn't as close as the score if you watched it and to Kentucky by 20 already. Losing 4 out of their last 7 and not looking impressive in any of them. Florida is down this yr. Kentucky has been on a tear and should win this one by 10 to 14pts. Florida might find a way to keep it closer at home but Kentucky should still win it by at least 8pts. Look at the UNC Duke game today. The better team won convincingly even though a lot of people thought Duke would keep it close. I think this is how this one goes tomorrow. Kentucky is the better team hands down.

[Dtown13]

Kentucky's effort each game is impressive. They want to dominate their opponents.

Agreed!

[BernardMadoff]

Losses to Vandy by 10, Ga by 14, Tenn at home by 5 however the game wasn't as close as the score if you watched it and to Kentucky by 20 already. Losing 4 out of their last 7 and not looking impressive in any of them. Florida is down this yr. Kentucky has been on a tear and should win this one by 10 to 14pts. Florida might find a way to keep it closer at home but Kentucky should still win it by at least 8pts. Look at the UNC Duke game today. The better team won convincingly even though a lot of people thought Duke would keep it close. I think this is how this one goes tomorrow. Kentucky is the better team hands down.

Scoring margins of past games dont determine future point spreads.

[Mac4Lyfe]

I'm a Florida fan and we have had some horrible 1H starts. No way would I play UF in the 1st half.

Don't out think the room. UK is the better team and it's not even close. UF is very lean in the paint and UK will exploit that. Ever since Yeguette was lost due to injury the Gators haven't been the same. He was a high energy guy that sparked the entire team. Even if UF shoots lights out from 3 this game won't be close. UK is better at 4 out of the 5 positions and the 5th is a tossup with Brad Beal.

This is my largest basketball bet of the year, NBA or college. I've had this game circled for 2 weeks now. It is spring break on campus and many of the students have left town and put their tickets on stub hub. UK fans have picked up all those tickets and will be out in force tomorrow morning. I expect it to be a 50/50 crowd so don't put any value on home field advantage. Maybe they loosen the rims a bit but that will work to UK's favor as well.

Go large on UK game line and take a little on the 1H as well.

FLA 1h probably best play

if UK is leading at half, their heads are in it and they close out FG easily
if FLA leads, UK could wake up and storm back like @MSU down 13 ended pushing -9

these kids shouldnt be in it for the 1st half though. early Sunday tip on the road, meaningless game in their eyes, they think they the shit now after 21 straight wins and 30 pt rout vs UGA

[dredmahawkus]

Scoring margins of past games dont determine future point spreads.

thats the stupidest comment I have ever seen.....then how do they determine point spreads? by how each team is feeling?

[lite1up]

thats the stupidest comment I have ever seen.....then how do they determine point spreads? by how each team is feeling?

Bernard Madoff is a confirmed troll. Please do not pay any attention to him. He has impersonated a poster in the service plays forum posting fake Brandon Lang plays. The BS he spouts in these threads is about par for the course for this troll.

[lite1up]

I should also mention that BernardMadoff tails Brandon Lang's selections so that should tell you what you need to know about his credibility and the mush-brain these asinine one line comments stem from.

[Sacdaddy05]

kentucky will win but it will be close...

[GBrooks77]

thats the stupidest comment I have ever seen.....then how do they determine point spreads? by how each team is feeling?

By the amount of cream cheese the Oddsmaker gets on his bagel in the morning, too much cheese = points toward the favorite - not enough cheese = points toward the dog. How else would you expect them to do it

[k13]

thats the stupidest comment I have ever seen.....then how do they determine point spreads? by how each team is feeling?

team power rankings + home court + public bias

Even a simple sagarin formula gives you this exact spread.

Line is -5 most places now. Gators SU.

[gatorwager]

I'm a Florida fan and we have had some horrible 1H starts. No way would I play UF in the 1st half.

Don't out think the room. UK is the better team and it's not even close. UF is very lean in the paint and UK will exploit that. Ever since Yeguette was lost due to injury the Gators haven't been the same. He was a high energy guy that sparked the entire team. Even if UF shoots lights out from 3 this game won't be close. UK is better at 4 out of the 5 positions and the 5th is a tossup with Brad Beal.

This is my largest basketball bet of the year, NBA or college. I've had this game circled for 2 weeks now. It is spring break on campus and many of the students have left town and put their tickets on stub hub. UK fans have picked up all those tickets and will be out in force tomorrow morning. I expect it to be a 50/50 crowd so don't put any value on home field advantage. Maybe they loosen the rims a bit but that will work to UK's favor as well.

Go large on UK game line and take a little on the 1H as well.

Couldn't agree more. I just graduated from UF last summer, and I am very disappointed in the Rowdy Reptiles that have succeeded me. The home court 'advantage' is going to be severely lacking in this game. As you pointed out, and I can corroborate, most UF kids are on break. I'm working in D.C. now, and so jealous of so many of my friends still in undergrad posting on Facebook and texting me about their trips to Miami or Daytona and soaking up the rays on the beaches. There will be a lot of UK alumni in the stands Sunday - for good reason, too. This is just one of those match ups that the Gators can not compete against, couldn't last year (0-3), can't this year. This will be an easy winner for Kentucky, unfortunately.

[thebestthereis]

Same scenario for UK at Indiana and at Vandy....road chalk around 5. They lost to Indiana and should not of covered at Vandy. Pass for me, good luck!

[eldoctord]

Can someone say "trap" game? Anytime the line looks off better recheck your numbers.....Kentucky "should" win this game?? On the road against a good team..watch out

[wcknauf]

Great info Mac4 and Gatorwager. Lack of enthusiasm by UK is a concern but maybe even a bigger concern for UF. Thanks again for the info

[HoulihansTX]

Florida sucks

[LuolBigDeng]

Kentucky seems way too athletic. I've only seen UF a couple times this year. They don't resemble Florida teams of old. No way you could put anything on them. I think the line is low simply because it's "Florida"

[HR Paperstacks]

For those that say UK has nothing to play for remember that if they win today they close out the regular season a perfect 16-0 in SEC play. That doesnt happen very often so Im sure they would like to say they were able to do that.

[convick]

Cherry-picking 1-2 games to determine point spreads is probably what he is referring to. Home court probably has much more to do with this line than previous scores I guess. Also, wasnt Kentucky only a 5 pt favorite against Vandy a few weeks ago?

k13 has it right.

[Mac4Lyfe]

The problem with this logic is that there will be no home court advantage today, which the general public won't know/consider plus the public sees UF ranked #13 and expects UK to be challenged. The problem is that Calipari is a better in game coach than Billy D, unfortunately and he has the better talent. UF is limited in the low post (Patric Young isn't playing well of late) and the injury to Yeguette has hurt UF on defense. UF is playing really poor right now and UK wants an undefeated SEC season.

I think it may be close for about 10 minutes and then UK's pressure and speed will blow this game into double digits.

team power rankings + home court + public bias

Even a simple sagarin formula gives you this exact spread.

Line is -5 most places now. Gators SU.

[Dexter]

This is my largest basketball bet of the year, NBA or college. I've had this game circled for 2 weeks now. It is spring break on campus and many of the students have left town and put their tickets on stub hub. UK fans have picked up all those tickets and will be out in force tomorrow morning. I expect it to be a 50/50 crowd so don't put any value on home field advantage.

Couldn't agree more. I just graduated from UF last summer, and I am very disappointed in the Rowdy Reptiles that have succeeded me. The home court 'advantage' is going to be severely lacking in this game. As you pointed out, and I can corroborate, most UF kids are on break.

<br>
Guys - Are you watching this game right now? The Florida fans are going crazy.....

[gatorwager]

Even in the three home games v. Kentucky I went to during my tenure in Gainesville (none of which were during spring break), somehow a good 25% of the arena was Kentucky alumni/fans (which was annoying as f*ck. In 2009, I remember somehow two Kentucky fans were sitting next to me in the student section). I imagine its only exacerbated during Spring Break.

[Dexter]

Even in the three home games v. Kentucky I went to during my tenure in Gainesville (none of which were during spring break), somehow a good 25% of the arena was Kentucky alumni/fans (which was annoying as f*ck. In 2009, I remember somehow two Kentucky fans were sitting next to me in the student section). I imagine its only exacerbated during Spring Break.

yeah, this place today reminds me of Duke home-games.....absolute mayhem.