Originally Posted by
ifiwaspresident
This is perfect timing for this thread for me. I was about to post something similar. I too have these kinds of problems on a consistent basis. I try to handicap on my own, but it is apparent I am woefully unqualified. I think I'm looking at everything I can, like good at home, bad on the road, playing up to level of competition, playing down to level of competition, recent hot or cold streaks, recent head to head, recent common opponents, good or bad defense, good or bad offense, good perimeter shooting vs bad perimeter defense and vice versa, etc, etc, etc. I'm always sooooooooooooooooo close but just seem to miss by a point. Today I had NC @ 200, Md @ 300, and AZ @ 200, all ATS.
Feb 25 01:06 AM
by: INTERNET 25991681 CBB Feb 25 04:05 PM STRAIGHT BET [583] NORTH CAROLINA -4-110 220/200 LOSE
Feb 25 10:01 AM
by: INTERNET 25996519 CBB Feb 25 02:35 PM STRAIGHT BET [553] MARYLAND +1-110 330/300 LOSE
Feb 25 12:00 PM
by: INTERNET 26007686 CBB Feb 25 02:05 PM STRAIGHT BET [546] ARIZONA -3-110 220/200 LOSE
They seemed like such obvious bets to me, but I was wrong. I missed every stinking one of them by exactly 1 freaking point. It just feels like I'm doing the work, but there is one small bit of data each time that I am unaware of that the serious bettors take into consideration, and it's that one little nugget of wisdom that is the difference between winning and losing. Unfortunately, I am on the losing side more than winning. I average $100-500 plays, and I'm down probably $3,500 in a month of playing, playing 4-5 days a week with 4-12 plays per day. So I get plenty right, but I just get a little more wrong than right. I hate losing. I'm a freaking electrical engineer. I know math. I know how to crunch numbers. So I assume the mistake lay in the factors I am choosing to evaluate. I just wish I could figure that out. I feel your pain bro. I don't know this for sure, but my guess is there is a "feel" that experienced and successful bettors have, and this feel is like maturity. You can't buy or fake it. You can only earn it with experience.