[Jayvegas420]

Northeastern @ Delaware
These teams have very similar winning & losing margins amongst common opponents, this game plays much closer than six points. Northeastern are 23-11-1 ATS in their last 35 games as a road underdog.
Northeaster +6.5
As the low over/unders continue to increase week by week for Northeastern games they still go over the total more than 50% of the time. Their over/under record on Saturdays 14-5
This is the highest O/U set for Northeastern in their last 16 games.
Under 131

Vanderbilt @ Kentucky
If Vandy hadn't lost to Fla & ARK, I'd say this was a lock but because of these two losses I can't say Vandy will show up. They lost to the Wildcats by 6 a week ago. Even if they don't keep it within 6 I am sure they easily stay with twice that amount. VANDY are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 road games.Commodores are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog. Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Vandy +12
Linemakers have been pinning Kentucky's over/unders fairly accurately lately. Lamb & Davis combined for less than 25 points combined but, could go off the hook in this one. I don't think the over under is a very reliable play.

VT @ Duke
This is a typical bet on the highest ranked in Ball every year. This is also is a bet against a team that has looses for me more than 50% of the time. I hate that the line has opened at -14 but it appears you could shop around & find this line at 12.5, even 12 in some books.
DUKE -12
If Duke can cover this kind of spread I can't see VT reaching their AVG 65 points. This pick is predicated on my assumption that DUKE will cover more than 12 points.
UNDER 137.5

ND @ St Johns
When the Bruins were humiliated by St. John's, that's when all should changed our perspective on the Storm.
If a team has ever been due to lose as a result of playing over their heads it the IRISH. I know is horrible rationale for predicting a team to lose but let's say I'm wrong & they don't lose, will they really win by 7. The only time it seems they can cover these 6-7 point spreads is when they play the likes of SH & Rutgers & Depaul. Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in St. John's.
ST. Johns +6.5
If ND determines the pace of the game it will stay under, no doubt in my mind. I don't think this will be the case & St. John's TT has quite a range this season. You're a smarter man than I if you can accurately predict the over/ under in this match!

BC @ WAKE
Take your pick between either one of these teams who, if it were possible, should both be dogs.
One team could hold the other to under 20 points in the 1st 1/2 which is entire possible, but they both play such horrible defense coupled with an obscene amount of turnovers that no one knows what's gonna happen.

Under is 15-6 in Demon Deacons last 21 overall. Under is 6-1 in Demon Deacons last 7 home games. Under is 12-5 in Eagles last 17 overall. Under is 10-4 in Eagles last 14 vs. Atlantic Coast. I have made a SBR Sportsbook play on the under 125.5 here. This may contradict the above but, I am playing this on a hunch that both these teams suck & it might the crappiest game to watch all day long!
Under 125.5

OK @ Baylor
When I watched the Sooners loose to Chaminade (LOL) in a Vegas Sportsbook two seasons ago I wondered if they would ever be good again. I have been pleasantly surprised with them this season however. I don't think any of this matters though. I stated that this is the toughest Conf in the nation this year & I see the Bears winning the Championship. Baylor has not been asked to cover a spread of this magnitude since they played OK St. in Jan. But since they did I'd make a small wager that they can do it to the Sooners as well.
BAYLOR -13.5
OK allows an AVG 69 to be scored against them. Baylor averages 75 points per game. Over is 10-4 in Sooners last 14 games following a ATS win. Over is 7-3 in Sooners last 10 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5. Over is 19-7 in Bears last 26 games following a ATS win.


Cyclones @ K ST.
Again with this being such a tough conference I don't know how confident I am in either team, at least on the money line. IAST are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 vs. Big 12. I hate to say it but since you're getting the points I have to go with the Cyclones. Wildcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. K St. are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
Cyclones +8
Over is 23-8 in Cyclones last 31 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. Over is 6-2 in Wildcats last 8 games following a ATS win. I can't see this being a low scoring game, both coaches pull out all the stops.
OVER 135.5

LSU @ Mississippi
A team on a four game winning streak on the road to a team who has lost 6 of their last 7?
I gotta go with the road dog here. Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. Rebels are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
LSU +4
Stay away from the Over/ here.



Well that's all the games I like up to the 2:00 Eastern hour.
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Ummm. I don't like any of the 2:00 games. Let's do the 4:00's

Florida @ Georgia
Only because I consider this a complete and total lock am I picking this Money Line. There is very little value but there are some PRO's here who wager big money which might make this play worth it. The fact that the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Tells me that even the line is too sharp you can't lose the SU win here.
Florida M/L
Over is 15-6 in Bulldogs last 21 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. Over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings.
Over is 22-8 in Gators last 30 games as a favorite. Over is 28-11 in Gators last 39 games following a S.U. win. I like the over even if it moves to 132, which is 2 full points higher than it opened.
OVER 129.5

N.C. @ Virginia
I believe this is what some on this site refer to a a "trapping line". We know the public should LOVE N.C. at such a juicy line but....there's something telling me that VEGAS knows something I am not aware of.

• Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
• Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Atlantic Coast.
• Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.

I don't know how you ignore this but I still think is a game I stay away from. I don't touch the over under either.

U.N.L.V @ Air Force
Since covering by 20+ over Canisuis UNLV hasn't covered more than 17 points, discounting their win 124-75 over Central Arkansas. U.N.L.V.'s strength of schedule is very weak in my opinion. AF took them to OT a few weeks ago.
Runnin' Rebels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games. AF is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog. Falcons are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games.
Air Force +17


Mizzou @ Kansas

HA....Good Luck

Towson @ James Madison
Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Towson are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Towson sucks.
I have a bet in the SBR book as well on this game.
James Madison -13
This will be a blow out if all goes as expected, so expect a low scoring game.
UNDER 128

Boise St. @ Wyoming
These teams match up too well for anyone to win by 7.

• Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Mountain West.

I've lost two straight bets on Wyoming there may a little Bias there. One of those losses might have been an over?under but, regardless I still like the play on Boise St. to start the game up 7 points.
Boise ST. +7
This match up oozes of OVER. A great Saturday OVER....A STOVER, if you will.

• Under is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5.
• Under is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.
• Under is 14-3 in Cowboys last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• Under is 13-3 in Cowboys last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• Under is 21-8 in Cowboys last 29 games as a favorite.
• Under is 21-9 in Cowboys last 30 home games.
• Under is 40-19 in Cowboys last 59 games as a home favorite.

Since there is no such thing as a STOVER I think the under is a contender for lock of the day.
UNDER 118

Texas @ TT
Texas has not been playing well in Feb. & has only been going downhill in their last two. Fortunately when you hit rock bottom you find Texas Tech. This will be a walk in park for Texas. I don't need no stinkin' stats! Texas is a clear winner here, to be safe let's shave of a couple of points.
Texas -8


ARKANSAS @ AUBURN
Underdog is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Auburnis 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite.
Razorbacks really let me down last two time out & this when I feel a huge cash ready for the taking. Helping our cause here is the fact Arkansas has won the last 3 meetings.
Arkansas +2.5
I noticed a few Pushes in last 40-60 games for these two teams combined.
I think that tells me that the linemakers are again right on the money when they total this matchup.

Portland @ B.Y.U
Time for a confession. I have been making unconditional bets against BYU all year long. The reason for this is simple. I truly believe that Jimmer was the Greatest College Basketball Player of this Milenium.
Portland +22

Temple @ St Jo's
Does St. Jo's win their 1st game vs. the Owls in over 7 years. I don't think so either. This is another game place under the over valued money column. If you want great value & you can sell points with your book I think a small wager on Temple to cover double digits could really pay out.

• Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
• Owls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
• Owls are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Owls are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
• Owls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win.
• Owls are 57-28-2 ATS in their last 87 vs. Atlantic 10.

Temple -2.5

Gonzaga @ SD
SD Allows 72 points per game. Gonzaga & PANGOS are going to go CRAZY on this sad excuse for a team. Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Besides that redonkulous San Fran game the Zags have cashed for me 5 straight times.
Gonzaga -11 Pangos over 2.5 3PTS Made & OVER 20.5 Point

I'll hit the 8:00 games tomorrow.
Why didnt my SBR poker Tourney pop up? I thought I set to do that. What a waste of 22 points.

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[oakas]

Do you do these write-ups yourself, Jay?

If so, very nice.

[Joepbj]

fyi - temple is -2.5, not plus

nice write-ups though

[Jayvegas420]

oh i dint know they were the fav, i will change that.
When I saw that another tip(s) i got from the site was about to pay-off I thought I'd try to contribute & give back a little while burning some time.

[Jayvegas420]

Let's save the compliments until we're sure I'm not gonna go 4 for 20 by 9:00pm EST

LOL

[Jayvegas420]

Here's some, hopefully useful info for the night games:

Nebraska @ Michigan St
Only one team was expected to pound the Huskers like this & it was OSU. If you think MSU is of the same caliber than you need to bet on the Spartans to cover the full 18. If you don't think MSU is playing quite at OSU's level right now (like me) you already know this is too many points. When they played a few months ago, all be it in Neb, the Huskers lost by 13. Keep in mind the final score was indicative of the entire game, The Huskers looked like they were in this game until the final 4 mins & Brandon Richardson only score 4 or 5 points which will not be the case today.
Sparts are playing so well lately that I am aware this seems like an absurd pick but still, it is what is!
Nebraska +17.5
Under might be the play here because the Over/Under trends appear to be very short term, just like Sparts ATS streak.
Whenever I see a huge favourite that I don't like I should always take the over when expecting a tight game but, this Spartan's D is something else & if I am wrong on the line this could be a huge blow out & an under to boot.
UNDER 127.5

Richmond @ Xavier
Although the Spiders have been a lot of fun to watch this year, I think if Xavier wants to extend it's BIG DANCE streak, they need to pull out a tremendous amount of wins down the stretch.
Xavier is the true definition of a bubble team IMO. Musketeers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Spiders are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games. I dont like the linemakers are all over the Xavier spreade this year so to be safe this another game I would buy a couple to feel more relaxed down the stretch.
Xavier -5.5

USC @ Arizona St.
ARZST are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Sat. games. ARZST are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. Sun Devils are 18-39-2 ATS in their last 59 games overall. Sun Devils are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5. I dont know how bad they really are cause I haven't seen them play this year but the Devils appear to be one of the worst teams vs. the spread in the nation!
Sun Devils are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite & don't appear to have any promise going down the stretch.
Trojans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Trojans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Everything here seems to point to U.S.C. Although this is a longer tern stat, Underdog is 14-5-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings.
U.S.C. +3.5
Sometimes two crappy teams like this surprise the betting public with a huge over. I don;t think will happen today. When two crap teams like this collide, I like the under to prevail.
Whoa wait is that really 111.5? Well, I guess you're on your own here, that;s just too low.

[SASH]

liking under 130 st johns/nd

[Jayvegas420]

had to wait till one min after noon to tell me?!
LOL
damn, I would have taken this after your post.
bet365 doesnt have it in play either.
did you get a play in?

[Jayvegas420]

So, that's a 3-6 record , going into the evening games.
At this pace I am on pace to be down 30+Units

[BigTimeWinner]

had to wait till one min after noon to tell me?!
LOL
damn, I would have taken this after your post.
bet365 doesnt have it in play either.
did you get a play in?

hey buddy, you are from the US and bet at bet365?

[Jayvegas420]

not American

[Jayvegas420]

12-16-1
Hope I was able to provide some nice fades for everyone.
I think I was down roughly seven amd a half units with these rediculous picks.
sorry for that

[Jayvegas420]

Gardner Webb @ High Point
Nick Barbour had a Jimmer'esque game on Wednesday night & scored 44 points. He scored 34 points the last they played the Runnin Dogs & they wouldn't have covered a 4 point spread that night, although that game did go to OT. Another interesting fact is that the game they played each other less than a month before that went to OT as well. They held Barbour to 7 points that night which I can only assume was likely a career low. It obvious all of High Point's games hinge on the performance of Barbour. It seems when Gardner Webb can contain him they make it to OT & also, when they let him go off for 34 points they keep it close enough to force overtime as well.
Gardner Webb averages 66 points for & against per game and have met or exceeded this total twice in their last 9 games. High point has exceeded their 70 point 7 of their last 10. High Point beat Presbeteryan who just beat Gardner Webb by 6 in Gardner Webb's last game.

High Point has played in what I can only would be lines set much lower than the inevitable total. 150 + point games, they scored nearly 100 points last game. If they set this line at 131, High Point has never gone below this total in their last 6 games.


Mississippi Valley St. @ Jackson St.
After losing to Florida, Iowa St, Wisconsin, Mississippi & Northwestern (I have no idea what right they had to ever play these teams) Oh....and also Tar Heels, Gamecocks & The Irish! So after losing to all thos eteams and a few others, the "Delta Devils" went on a 16 game winning streak & are undefeated in their conference.
Jackson St. can lose games by 31 & 44.

Jackson St. average about 51 points when they lose & only 55 points all season long. Miss Valley St. averages close to 70 points for & against all season long. The total of their last meeting was 114 when MVST won by 6.


ND @ Georgetown.
In the last ten Games the Irish have been outstanding. They are averaging 68 points per game & were on a 9 game Big East winning streak before they ran into St. Johns this week.

• Fighting Irish are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Fighting Irish are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• Fighting Irish are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
• Fighting Irish are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big East.
• Notre Dame has won the last three meetings & GT has a bad loss to Seton Hall last week.Georgetown is 13-9 ATS this season but only 7-9 ATS in the Big East.

• Hoyas are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win.
• Hoyas are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Hoyas are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• Hoyas are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.

The under is 23-6 for the Irish when they play a team wit a winning record.

Kansas @ OK ST