Another good day yesterday going 3-1...been on a little streak lately. Hope it continues today. I am staying as far away as possible from Duke/FSU and Louisville/Cincy...so gonna go for the smaller teams.
Tennessee State TT o66
Jacksonville State -3
Arkansas -1.5
These plays are just a fraction of what I was playing yesterday but I still really like them, especially the Arkansas and Tenn St plays. Tenn St has been great offensively at home this season averaging over 70 ppg and only giving up 62 or something around that. Almost took Murray State but them on the road vs Tenn St and looking at their last 5 games has me a little worried for the spread.
Arkansas has been a quiet moneymaker for me this season. Most of the games I have played them were at home and they are like 12-1 or something at home this season. Alabama may get one of their suspended players back tonight and I'm sure they will. But I don't think it will help them much on the road tonight. Alabama is 1-4 ATS their last 5 as underdogs and 2-7 ATS last 9 as road dogs of .5-6.5 pts. The Razorbacks are 4-1-1 their last 6 as home favorites
North Texas and Ark. Little Rock have been matched up pretty closely their last 5 games. Not too much of a home court advantage as LR has a record of 8-5 at home but still, it's hard to win on the road this late in the season. Little bit of a revenge game for N. Texas as they lost by 3 last time at home. North Texas is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 trips to Little Rock and both the UNDERDOG and ROAD TEAM are 8-2 their last 10 ATS between these two teams. That's enough for me.
I see that Tenn St. always goes over that 66 total.
Ay 1st glance this appears to be a great bet.
I only have two problems with this bet.
In spite of always covering 66 points per game in virtyually every game game in 2012, I wonder if Murray St is the team that can break this streak for them.
I mean Murray St is considered one of the 10 best teams in the nation & seem to be the team that can hold other teams to less than 66. Less than 45 in some cases.
My second problem is that my book Bet365, doesn't offer team totals until the game goes IN PLAY, which is usually 4-5 minutes before tip.
I am less concerned with this issue than the issue I have with Murray St. defense. Any help with this would be nice cause I'd like to tail on this pick, I really like it!
Jacksonville St -3 is also a good looking pick. My problem with this bet is that I see 2 losses to South Carolina Upstste & a loss to Edwardsville. It's hard to wrap my head around betting on a team that can lose to schools I heven't heard of. I guess in this conference if you are going to lose it will likely be to a rather unknown team.
Finally after reading your OP I have no problems with ARK -1.5. I think the line should be more like Bama -5.5 or 6 because the have won the last 2 matchups & they came of a great win over Tenn last game. So this might the line makers making an especially low line because perhaps they know they will be adjusting this line before tip.
I dont know all I know is I like this pick a lot.
You make a good argument about Murray State, if there were any game that they needed to show up and get serious especially on the road it would be tonight. Gonna be close, they have 28 at the half right now. Also, that sucks about the totals not coming up until before the game...thats no fun!
Alabama's shooting has been very well tonight, up by 10 right now so hoping for some razorback comeback!
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