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Ballsymans Big Play for Wed with write up(more picks to follow)
Winning Night last night went 2-2 but won +3.5 units on my Top Plays
Creighton at Missouri State.....5 unit play.....WINNER by 1 point
Seeing Creighton in person a week ago sort of confirmed a few things for me. First, the offense is good. By good, I mean I honestly haven’t seen anything close to it in Valley play that I can remember. They can score from pretty much any position on the court at any time they want, and the fast pace pretty much allows that. In the half court, they try to get the ball to McDermott where he can go one-on-one with his back to the basket and either get a shot attempt or kick it out for one of their many shooters they have on the perimeter. Again, and this is my opinion, but he’s the best player in the country. He doesn’t have the athleticism as a Robinson or a few other players I consider, but what he does for this team is unreal, and he can step out and shoot the long range jump shot. So, I’m fully aware of the points that they can put up in a hurry, and fully aware of what this offense is capable of. So ends my good analysis of Creighton. The other thing I saw with Creighton when I caught them at Illinois State was that they don’t really have a defense built on fundamentals. They have no rhythm, they’re constantly out of place, and any team can get a good shot on just about every possession. From a defensive standpoint, their main goal as a defender is to keep the ball in front of you and don’t allow penetration. If, by chance, that a team can penetrate on them, the defense for that possession is a failure. They’re not a team that’s built to recover from the guard position when they get attacked, and they’ll take their chances with Echenique or McDermott in the paint getting a block. Here’s a good idea of what this team wants to do and how they operate. At ISU, at the 15 minute mark of the 2H, Illinois State was 3/19 from the three-point line and Creighton only led by 4. Think about that for a minute. Creighton has now shot 57% in two straight games, however, they’ve come against two teams who have not been playing any sort of defense as of late, and two teams who will take chance after chance from the defensive end which leads to a bunch of open shots for Creighton, and when they get those, they will normally go in. Creighton has immediate revenge here, so that’s a nice angle if you think it’s present, but I don’t feel it is and I will expand on that in a bit. What do I expect to happen? Well, not really much different than the first meeting, in fact, I think the result may actually be a bit more lopsided than the first. If you watched the first meeting (it’s available for replay on ESPN3 if you want to get into it), I think a few really important things were present. First, Missouri State could get any shot it wanted to. And Second, their ability to not only attack, but use the ball screen to attack really opens up an even bigger hole in an already pathetic defense. Again, when they attack, the Creighton guards have no way to recover and if they aren’t keeping Missouri State in front of them, they’re in a rough spot. One more thing that I can take from that previous game, and it’s a really important one and pretty much a basis for the play and it relies in the matchups. In that first meeting, and last year, Creighton started out with McDermott on Weems. What’s this do? It forces Creighton’s best offensive weapon to not only score a ton to stay in the ballgame, but at the same time he’s being forced to defend Missouri State’s best offensive option and he’s forced to defend him out to 25 feet. They didn’t stick with it for the entire game, as they went to switching every ball screen and/or down screen, but there is also one more little teeny tiny important thing that plays into this as well. With McDermott extending out to the perimeter on Weems, the inside is a bit more open. Not only that, but Caleb Patterson usually starts on the outside within the offense against a man-to-man defense. If you’re not familiar with Patterson, he’s a lengthy center who can also take the outside jump shot on occasion. What’s this do? Well, I’ve already pointed out that McDermott is being forced to the outside. When Missouri State gets into their offense, now Patterson is operating on the outside and this is forcing Echenique, Creighton’s best interior defender to the outside. So, let’s put a few things together. Missouri State’s going to attack, and they’re going to operate within the offense which includes ball screens. When they attack, it’s probable that if they are to get to the rim and get past a defense that can’t keep attackers in front of you, and when they get to the rim, there is an extremely good chance that one, if not both of Creighton’s interior defenders are somewhere out on the perimeter. It’s a nightmare matchup for the Creighton defense. One more thing in regards to the game itself. I think I’m going to see a rather up-tempo game pretty quick. It’s the only style that Creighton knows how to play. And Missouri State won’t back down from that and here’s why. They want a team like Creighton in the open court forcing up quick shots. The majority of the guards have come from a juco setting, and they haven’t slowed a bit on the year, and they won’t slow the pace with the opportunities they have here in the open court. I don’t think the pace will be fast enough for the entire forty as I can see both coaches making adjustments at times, but it is what it is. There really is no reason to make Creighton a favorite here. Yah, they’re ranked, and yah they’re a very good offense, but defense has been the key to winning Valley games, especially in a home setting. In the first meeting, Weems had 6 points at the half and they only trailed by two. The second half came, he went off, and McDermott was fatigued having to defend as much as he isn’t use to. Again, the revenge angle is about as good of as an angle to use within the season, but it’s just not put into effect here. Revenge becomes Double Revenge which becomes Triple Revenge which becomes Quadruple Revenge which all of a sudden becomes 6 games in a row that Missouri State has gotten the better of Creighton. Defense will win this game, and the way both teams operate within the matchups will help a ton, too. Of course, having the luxury of playing in one of the best home courts in the country has its advantages as well.
5* Missouri State +2
Will be more.
GL
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Originally Posted by southpaw74
