I'm thinking about making a splash with Pitt moneyline tonight at -420. The fact that they have just regained their number one seed in the country after losing it just a couple weeks ago, I can't see them dropping a game to a struggling Providence team. Blair is not only playing at the top of his game but is playing with all the confidence in the world after dominating Thabeet on national television. Pitt is playing with confidence and better yet....now URGENCY. They feel like they deserve it and won't give it up so easily this time, especially against the Friars. OBVIOUSLY you can't make a living off betting like this but once in a great while when you see a lock like this, you just have to pull the trigger.
I'm guessing the guys in vegas are taking these things into consideration when they made the line at -8. hence my decision at taking the sure thing....moneyline -420
This money line is tricky.........I capped this game to be almost even on stats.......Providence scores a lot of points at home! But also gives up a lot as well......
My play would be the ML but there are too many other games to look at.
While both teams can score – the Panthers average 78 ppg, and Providence puts up 79.2 ppg – the difference has been defense, especially lately, as the Friars have allowed 87.6 ppg in their last nine outings while Pitt has surrendered 65.2 ppg in its last five. In fact, Providence has given up 93 points or more in six of its last nine contests, while the Panthers have held 12 of 14 Big East foes under 70 points, including the last five in a row.
The Panthers are on positive ATS runs of 5-1 overall (all in the Big East), 8-3-1 on the road, 4-0 on Tuesday, 4-1 after a SU win, 7-1 after a non-cover, 4-0 against teams with a winning record and 5-1 when laying 12 points or less. Providence carries nothing but negative pointspread trends into tonight, including 1-6 overall (all in the Big East), 2-5 at home, 0-5 versus winning teams, 2-5-1 on Tuesday and 2-8 as an underdog.