I post my picks on another forum, figured I would branch here and post. I went 7-4 on saturday. 5* 2-0, 4* 4-2, 3* 6-4 since I have been posting. Good Luck everyone.
Trends:
- Illinois 6-18 o/u overall
- 7-21 o/u on the road
- 3-11 o/u in conference
- 4-12 o/u after allowing <=60 points
- 1-9 o/u playing a team with a winning record after 15 games
- 1-8 against a defense allowing <=64 ppg after 15 games
- Ohio St. 8-11 o/u overall
- 6-7 o/u in conference
- 3-5 o/u when revenging home loss vs. opp.
- 5-11 o/u against winning record teams
- 5-9 o/u against defensive teams allowing <=64 ppg
First meeting between these two the total was 116 with both teams shooting over 40% from the field. Illinois has never been in a game with the total over 121 except their first 2 conference games, since then (12 games) no game has gone over 121. Ohio St. is 6-7 o/u in conference play with all 6 of those overs when Ohio St. shot better than 45% from the 3pt, and 5 of those 6 when they shot >=50% from the 3pt. Illinois has only allowed 2 teams to shoot >=45% from the 3pt in all 14 conference games and those 2 games were only 45% from 3pt each, which neither of those 2 games went over 121. While 4 of Ohio St. 6 over games they allowed >=35% 3pt shooting and 3 of those 4 allowed >=50% 3pt shooting. Illinois has shot >=35% from 3pt only 5 of the 14 conference games and only 1 of those 5 games were when they were the away team. And Illinois has only shot >=50% once in conference play. So, I believe this game comes down to 3 point shots. Illinois is not a good 3pt shooting team in away games and can guard the 3 pointer well as mentioned above. Ohio St. ranks 8th in conference in 3pt shooting percentage. This total might increase a little more, but definitely get it at 121 or more. It is at 120.5 and I would buy the hook to 121.
Trends:
- Villanova is 11-11 o/u overall
- 6-2 o/u in road games
- 10-3 o/u in conference
- 5-1 o/u in February
- 4-1 against offensive teams scoring >=77 ppg after 15 games
- Syracuse is 13-9 o/u overall
- 8-5 o/u as favorite
- 8-5 o/u at home
- 13-6 o/u when playing a team with a winning record
This two teams last meeting, 187 points were scored with Syracuse only shooting 38% from the field. Villanova is averaging 89.5 ppg last 4 games and allowing 83.5ppg. Syracuse is averaging 76.5 ppg the last 4 games and allowing 80ppg. When Syracuse allows just >=80ppg the OVER is 4-0. When Villanova allows >=75ppg the OVER is 7-0. Villanova last 5 games have gone OVER the total and 4 of those 5 OVERS went over the total 157.5. Syracuse is 8-5 o/u in conference play and all 5 of those unders were against teams allowing <=65ppg. Syracuse is averaging 84.5ppg at home in conference and allowing 73.3 ppg. When Villanova scores >=70ppg in away games the OVER is 6-0(which is every away game). Villanova is allowing 47.8% shooting (allowing >=50% shooting the last 3 games) its last 4 games and when Syracuse shoots just >=44% the OVER is 7-1 and the 1 under being against a good West Virginia defense. Syracuse is allowing 45.9% shooting the last 4 games compared to Villanova 50.9% shooting their last 4 games. When Villanova shoots just >=44% the OVER is 7-3 overall and 3-0 in away games. Also, as mentioned before, Villanova 4 of their last 5 games have went OVER 157.5 and Syracuse last 3 of 5 games have went OVER 157.5. Like to mention I also have a lean on Villanova +2.5 but will not make it a play. I also would like to say I usually buy hooks and I bought this down to 157.
Trends:
- NW 13-7 o/u overall
- 10-3 o/u in conference
- 3-0 o/u off win against conference rival
- 10-7 o/u against team with winning record
- 6-2 o/u against defensive teams allowing <=64 ppg after 15 games
- Minn 10-11 o/u overall
- 7-7 o/u in conference
- 2-0 o/u revenging road loss vs. opponent
- 7-4 o/u against defensive teams allowing <=64 ppg
First meeting between these 2 the total was 139. NW 13 conference games the OVER is 10-3. Two of those unders being against a Illinois and Iowa team who both allow under 60 ppg. NW is averaging 62.3 ppg in the last 4 games(which is exactly what Minn is allowing per game all year) and allowing 65 ppg the last 4 games(which is 3 points under what Minn is avg. per year which is 68 ppg). Even with Minn under their average scoring 65 and Minn getting their avg. the total goes OVER. Minn is allowig 43.5% shooting last 4 games(45% last 5 games) and when NW shoots >=43% the OVER is 10-1 and the 1 loss being against a solid defensive team in Illinois. NW is averaging 41.7% shooting last 4 games and when Minn allows >=40% the OVER is 5-4 in conference.
Nope, doesn't look like it. I think I only have 1 more play and that will probably be arizona/az. st o130.5. Almost positive on that but not 100% just yet. I will have something up before gametime. The 5* were ucla/wash over this past week and rhode island -18 saturday. I had kansas(-12) a 5* before I put the writeup out but did not want to get greedy and changed it to 4* and they won saturday. 3* are my lowest also.
Trends:
- Az St - 14-11 o/u overall
- 8-2 o/u when total is 130-139.5
- 5-2 o/u off a win against a conference rival
- 6-1 o/u after scoring 80 points or more
- 7-1 o/u when playing a team with winning record after 15 games
- Arizona - 10-11 o/u overall
- 5-3 o/u when total is is 130-139.5
- 4-5 o/u at home
- 8-6 o/u when playing a team with a winning record
last meeting between these 2 went for 100 points. Both teams shot under 30% from the field and both teams shot under 20% from the 3pt. Since this meeting between the two, Az St. has NOT shot under 40% from the field nor under 30% from the 3pt.(includes 7 games with 6 of those going OVER the total). Az St. is averaging 45.5% from the field since this past meeting and allowing 43.8% FG. When Arizona shoots >=43% the OVER is 8-3 in conference. Az St. is scoring 63.3 ppg and allowing 60.7 ppg since the last meeting. But, Arizona has scored >80ppg in 5 of the last 7 games and is averaging 82.6ppg in those 7 while allowing >70ppg in 5 of the last 7 games with an average of 74.4 ppg giving up. When Arizona St. scores >70ppg the OVER is 4-1 in conference with that 1 loss being OVER 131 and 9-1 overall with the 1 loss being OVER 131. Az St. is 5-8 o/u in conference, 5 of those 8 under were away games and the other 3 were at home where they shot below 65% from the FT line. I believe in this rival game they will make them when they count as they know this is a big game for them. When they shoot >70% from the FT line the OVER is 8-5 overall. Also, in 4 of those 5 OVER games they did shoot >75% from the FT line. I would like to mentio I did buy the hook down to 130.5 like I usually do.
Trends:
- Louisville is 13-13 o/u overall
- 13-11 o/u as a favorite
- 4-3 o/u on the road
- 6-5 o/u off a win against a conference rival
- GT 10-11 o/u overall
- 4-2 o/u as underdog
- 6-4 o/u at home
- 5-2 o/u against team with winning record after 15 games
Louisville last 4 games went OVER and all OVER 132. Louisville has scored OVER 132 9 out of 14 conferece games. In 4 of those 5 unders, they shot under 40% from the field. GT is allowing 44.9% shooting in their last 4 games. In the 9 OVER totals Louisville has had, 7 of those they shot >=40% shooting. With GT allowing 44.9% shooting in the last 4 games and 45.6% shooting at home. I like Louisville to be able to shoot >=40% from the field. Louisville is avg. 80.5 ppg last 4 games and GT is avg. 73.5 ppg last 4. GT is allowing 70 ppg in the last 4 games and allowing 69 ppg at home in conference. When Louisville scores just >=70 ppg the OVER is 7-0 in conference and if they score >=65 ppg the OVER is 8-3 in conference with 2 of those 3 unders being >=132. Louisville is shooting 50.2% from the field the last 4 games and 43.5% in away conference games. When GT allows >=40% shooting at home, the OVER is 4-2. Louisville is allowing 70.8 ppg the last 4 games and when GT scores >=65 ppg the OVER is 6-3 with 2 of the 3 unders being OVER 132. Louisville has allowed >=60 points 8 of 14 confernce games with OVER being 4-4, but 2 of those 4 unders being OVER 132. GT has allowed >=70 ppg in 8 of 14 conference games with the OVER being 6-2 in those 8 games, but 1 of those 2 unders being OVER 132. I see Louisville getting their avg. of 70 or greater and GT getting greater than 60 and the total going over 132.
Reason for the low line, compared to Tenn-Martin standards, is because of Murray St. defense who only allows 62 ppg compared to Tenn-Martin 70 ppg which is 2 points above Murray St. avg. on avg. which is 68ppg. So I expect Murray St. to get greater than 68 points. Murray St. has only allowed greater than 70 ppg 3 games in conference(13 games) and all 3 games were to teams who avg. greater than 70 ppg. Tenn-Martin avg. 80 ppg and Tenn-Martin has only been held to under 70 ppg once in all conference games(14 games) and 10 of their 14 games went OVER 144. Tenn-Martin avg. 80.8 ppg and allowing 68.8 avg last 4 games, but allowing 71.2 ppg in away conference games. When Murray St. scores just >=65 ppg the OVER is 4-3 with 1 of the unders being OVER 144. Tenn-Martin is shooting 47.7% from the field last 4 games and 47.8% in all away conference games. When Murray St. allows >=45%, which has happened the last 2 games were > 45% and went OVER, shooting the OVER is 3-2. Murray St. is only allowing 41.9% shooting at home in conference. When Tenn-Martin shoots just >=40% the OVER is 7-6, but 3 of those 6 unders being greater than 144. Also, have a play on 1H OVER 66 and a lean on Tenn-Martin +3.
Trends:
- KU 9-13 o/u overall
- 1-3 o/u as underdog
- 2-9 o/u after conference game
- 1-9 o/u off a wing against conference rival
- 3-8 o/u playing a team with winning record after 15 games
- 1-5 o/u in February
- OU 14-8 o/u overall
- 3-2 o/u in February
- 11-7 o/u playing against a team with winning record
Kansas has never allowed a team to shoot over 50% from the field and only 1 team to shoot greater than 45% in 13 conference games. OU is 8-4 o/u in conference with 7 of those overs when shooting >50% from the field and the other over shooting over 45%. Kansas is allowing 61ppg last 4 games and 69.5 ppg in away conference games. When OU scores UNDER 70ppg the UNDER is 3-0 in conference. OU is allowing 68ppg their last 4 games and 69.5 ppg in home conference games. When KU scores <=70ppg the UNDER is 5-0 in conference. KU is only allowing 37.1% shooting last 4 games and 37.8% shooting in away conference games. OU is shooting 52.2% from the field last 4 games and 51.8% shooting in home conference games. Something has to give and with OU without Griffin I believe Kansas defense will prevail here and keep the total UNDER 145.
Trends:
- Creighton 19-6 o/u overall
- 17-4 o/u as a favorite
- 8-3 o/u on the road
- 12-4 o/u in conference
- 6-1 o/u against team with a losing record
- 4-1 o/u against poor offensive teams shooting <=64 ppg after 15 games
- 5-0 o/u in last 5 road games
- 20-6-1 last 27 games vs. Missouri St.
- Missouri St. - 15-12 o/u
- 9-5 o/u as underdog
- 11-5 o/u in conference
- 6-4 o/u revenging a road loss vs. opponent
- 4-0 o/u in last 4 home games
The first meeting went to 126 with Creighton putting up 75, while Missouri St. shot 30% from the field and 19% from the 3pt. since this game, Missouri St. has only shot under 40% once (includes 6 games) and has not shot under 25% in none of the 6 games. Since the meeting Missouri St. has had 6 straight OVER's with 3 of those being greater than 135. Missouri St. is avg. 67.8 ppg last 4 games and 65.6in all home conference games. When Creighton allows just >=60 ppg the OVER is 11- in conference play with both of those unders being greater than 135. Creighton is avg. 81.5 ppg last 4 games and avg. 74.3 ppg in 8 away conference games with 6 of those 8 being >=73 points. Since Shane Laurie has been has been out(out for season) Missouri St. has allowed greater than 70 points every game. Missouri St. is allowing 71.5ppg last 4 games and 65.3ppg at home in conferene. Creighton has only scored less than 70 points in 5 of their 16 conference games and only 2 of those were away. And when Creighton shoots just >=40% from the field the OVER is 10-3 and 1 of those 3 unders going OVER 135. Creighton is allowing just 40% shhoting in away conference games and allowing 67.6ppg in these away games. When Missouri St. shoots just >=35% from the field the OVER is 11-3 in conference and 6-1 at home in conference. When Missouri St. scores just >=60ppg at home in conference the OVER is 5-1. I expect Creighton to get between 75-80 while Missouri St. scores 68-72 which will put the total OVER.
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