[Goodfella10]

RECORD (0-0)

I don't usually post plays, but thought what the hell.

I usually don't play more than a game or two a night, but I like tonight's card.

PLAY OF THE DAY:
***** Michigan St -6
-This is the first tough road game that Indiana has played and they are a bit banged up. The Spartans are tough at home and I believe the frontline of Michigan St will prove to be the difference. I still believe the Hoosiers are a bit overvalued after an undefeated record and a home win over Kentucky.

**** Georgetown +6.5
-Louisville's best win is over a overvalued Vanderbilt and they have struggled mightily with inferior opponents. If the Hoyas get up early, they won't let the lead fade away like the other teams the Cards have played. I think Gtown can win outright, but I think 6.5 is way too much against a team that has played quality competition and done well.

** Syracuse -14.5
-Seton Hall is overvalued as well and haven't beat anyone of substance yet. Syracuse has played a tougher schedule and been more impressive. If Seton Hall doesn't shoot the ball well, and I suspect they won't, then I see a 20 point win here.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL

[Goodfella10]

ADDING:

** MISS STATE +7.5
-These are very two very comparable teams playing on a semi-neutral court. I am guessing Sidney plays and if so, then the frontlines are fairly evenly matched. Dee Bost provides an elite point guard and the supporting cast is very solid. The Bulldogs are by far the best team that Baylor has faced this year and will prove to be a good test. I think there is a possibility of an outright win for Miss State, but I will happily take the 7.5 points.

[Goodfella10]

12/29/11

RECORD (4-0) +13 UNITS
PLAY OF THE DAY (1-0) +5 UNITS

PLAY OF THE DAY
****VANDY +8.5
-This is way too many points to give Vandy in a game where the talent levels of these teams are comparable. Add to the fact that Marquette is hampered by injuries down low and I believe this game will be very close. It is important to remember that this Vandy team was highly ranked preseason and now has a half-healthy Ezeli in the lineup. Marquette has overachieved, but outside of winning at Wisconsin, which is very difficult to do, their season is somewhat unimpressive. To me, Vandy has a slight chance to win, but a good chance to cover the 8.5 points.

**UCLA +6
-The Bruins have gotten better since Nelson has left the team and I look for them to continue to improve. Coaches and players alike have publicly stated that they feel the team chemistry is better without Nelson. Stanford is a solid squad, but I feel their success is a victim of a soft schedule. Take away the game against Syracuse and the next two quality opponents are Butler (loss) and NC State (4pt win) at home. I think UCLA has a shot at pulling off the upset tonight, but I like the 6 points.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL

[Goodfella10]

12/30/11

RECORD (6-0) +19 UNITS
PLAY OF THE DAY (2-0) +9 UNITS

PLAY OF THE DAY
****WVU +1
-If you look at WVU and Seton Hall's schedules to this point in the season, WVU is much more impressive. Outside of getting beat handily by Syracuse, Seton Hall can only hang their hat on wins over Wake Forest and Dayton and a neutral site loss to Northwestern. WVU on the other hand has played and won against some descent opponents in Kansas St, Villanova, Miami FL. Their two losses come at the hands of Baylor by 2 in OT and Miss State on the road by 13. Neither are anything to be ashamed of in my opinion. I feel West Virginia's experience with Bryant, Jones, and co. will not be phased by an environment like Seton Hall. I do think the talent levels of the teams are comparable, but I think Huggins coaching and the Mountaineers defense and discipline wins this game.

***OLD DOMINION +8
-Very few if any teams dictate tempo of a game as well as Old Dominion. They are well coached and disciplined and can make a game so sloppy, boring, and physical that is hard to watch. Missouri is a great team and has a huge talent advantage here, but I think the home court advantage and dictating tempo will keep Old Dominion within 8 points. Keep in mind that Old Dominion played Kentucky to a 10 point game and gave them a lot of issues earlier in the season. That game was ugly to watch and while Kentucky doesn't run like Missouri, they are very explosive offensively and were held to 62 points in that matchup. Give me the 8 points at home
GOOD LUCK TO ALL

[ksnooksk]

Looking sharp!

[Madison]

Very impressive.

Also on WV. Buyer beware.

[Goodfella10]

12/31/11

RECORD (7-1) +17.6 UNITS
PLAY OF THE DAY (2-1) +4.4 UNITS

**KENTUCKY -9.5
-UK has been hungry for a big win since its loss at Indiana and I think they are out for blood today. I get that this is a rivarly game, but there is noticeable talent disprency between these teams and UofL is a tad overrated. The Cards have struggled as of late and have only played one solid team on the road in Butler. In many of the games where they struggled this season, they fed off their home court crowd for energy and they will have the opposite of that today in Rupp. The last two and only meetings with UK under Calipari have been double digit victories. My guess is the Cats win this one by 12 or more points.


ALL FOR NOW
GOOD LUCK TO ALL

[Madison]

Very impressive. Also on WV. Buyer beware.

Hopefully you don't have my address

[Goodfella10]

Haha. WVU didn't show up last night and I found it pretty surprising, but it happens. They have struggled offensively at times this year, but usually play good enough defense to counteract. That didn't happen last night. I will say that Seton Hall looked much better then they have all year in my opinion.

[Goodfella10]

ADDING:

**UCLA +6.5
-I am going to play the Bruins again today after a close loss at Stanford. Cal's struggles in the paint are well documented and I think if Smith can stay out of foul trouble, then this should be a close game. Of course that is big IF, but I will take my chances. I will take the 6.5 and may sit on it a bit to see if it goes back to 7 points.

*NEBRASKA +7.5
-This is a small play based on Michigan St being the largest public play of the day. I usually try to make a small play if I don't see any another angle, but might bet more on these types of games if it warrants. I don't see anything other than Nebraska being at home and the public being heavily on the Spartans that makes this play more worthwhile.

[Madison]

Haha. WVU didn't show up last night and I found it pretty surprising, but it happens. They have struggled offensively at times this year, but usually play good enough defense to counteract. That didn't happen last night. I will say that Seton Hall looked much better then they have all year in my opinion.

Yeah I've been SH all year and then they lay a big egg last game. Watch WV play very sound couple of games ago and shoot pretty well and oh well bad combo.

[Goodfella10]

ADDING:

**INDIANA +5
-I'm not sure Sullinger is 100% and Indiana has proved they can play with anyone at home after beating Kentucky. I think they have a small chance to win, but a good shot to cover the spread.

[Goodfella10]

ADDING:

**ST LOUIS +6
-I like St. Louis's poise and I believe Majerus will have his team ready. Their one loss is one the road after playing in a preseason tourney, but I think they are rested and ready for this one. The PIT is a tough place to play and New Mexico is tough at home, but I think 6 points is too much for a discplined team like St. Louis. [/color]

That is all for the evening. Happy New Year!

[Goodfella10]

1/2/12

RECORD (9-4) +16.1 UNITS
PLAY OF THE DAY (2-1) +4.4 UNITS

PLAY OF THE DAY
***LSU +3
- The Tigers and the Cavs have both been surprising to this point in the season. I do believe that LSU is a better team at home than Virginia is on the road. The Cavs go as Mike Scott goes and LSU has a frontline that can contend with him fairly well. Virginia has also not beat a team the caliber of Marquette yet this season, with their biggest win being at home over Michigan. I think LSU wins outright, but I will take the 3 points.

**FRESNO ST -PK
-Boise did beat Fresno a few weeks ago, but that game was at Boise. If there is one thing to know about Boise, it is that they struggle on the road (0-4 SU, avg margin of loss 13.75pts). I think the familiarity between the teams and the fact that Fresno is at home gives them the edge in this matchup.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL

[Goodfella10]

1/3/12

RECORD (10-5) +14.8 UNITS
PLAY OF THE DAY (2-2) +3.1 UNITS

PLAY OF THE DAY
****UCONN -2.5
- Sorry but I don't care how much this looks like a trap, I don't think these two teams are in the same league. I think Pope will get in foul trouble and that will be all she wrote. The only reason I don't have this as a 5 UNIT play is the fact that over 70% of the money is on UCONN. Seton Hall has overachieved and I think that is the reason for the close spread. Give me UCONN.

****OHIO ST -22.5
-This is a game where I see Nebraska being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Ohio St is coming off a loss against IU and looking for someone to take it out on. Nebraska has struggled this season and their lack of a quality big man will prove to be a huge issue this evening. They will be forced to double Sullinger, which leaves shooters open for the Buckeyes all over the floor. If Duke couldn't handle it, Nebraska is in for a long night.

***WISCONSIN -6
-These teams match up very well and Wisconsin needs a marquee win badly. I think Michigan State is in the wrong place at the wrong time. If Wisky loses this game, then I will have to start to re-evaluate what kind of team they truthfully have this season. The have already lost 2 games at home this season and that isn't characteristic of the Badgers. I see a big win tonight for the Badgers against a good Michigan State.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL

[Madison]

Was kinda interested in the Oak/OR U 153. Looked now and it's 146. OUCH!

[Madison]

If the 1H has any bearing it looks like your inside out anal of the OS/Neb was right on. BOL on the 2H.

[Goodfella10]

Thanks Madison. BOL to you as well. UConn is getting killed and Wisconsin is in a battle. Looking like a subpar evening so far.

I never really bet O/U. You have any strategies??

[Goodfella10]

ADDING:

**ALABAMA -5
-Georgia Tech has really struggled this year at home and on the road. Alabama has had some trouble on the road, but I do believe Ga Tech isn't the caliber team to stay close in this one. Most other years I would give them a shot, but I like Alabama here. Hopefully Green will play, but the Tide has proved capable without him this year.

[Goodfella10]

1/4/12

RECORD (12-7) +13.3 UNITS
PLAY OF THE DAY (2-3) -1.3 UNITS

***FSU -12.5
-FSU has struggled offensively this season, but Auburn is terrible on many levels. One thing FSU can do is defend and Auburn's offense will likely face their toughest defensive opponent to date. I don't think Auburn's defense has enough firepower to stop FSU like some of their other opponents recently. Auburn's schedule is unimpressive and the two quality opponents they have faced (Seton Hall and Long Beach St) beat them by an average of 21.5 points. I like the Seminoles here to win by 15+ points.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL

[Madison]

Thanks Madison. BOL to you as well. UConn is getting killed and Wisconsin is in a battle. Looking like a subpar evening so far. I never really bet O/U. You have any strategies??

Not really. been playing, coaching, and watching forever so it's mostly by how I feel the tempo of the game is going to go and the abilities of the teams to shoot or not.

[Goodfella10]

ADDING:

**KANSAS -9.5
-Phog Allen is one of the toughest places to play and Kansas St has only played one true road game against a decent Virginia Tech team. They have played numerous neutral court games and done well against good opponents. Kansas has lost to both Duke and UK on neutral floors, but did lose at home to Davidson. This is a big rivalry game and in the last 4 meetings the home team has won the games handily (8+ points). Kansas has won their last 3 at home in this series by 24, 8, and 17 respectively. I like Robinson and Withey to give the Jayhawks an advantage against the Wildcats frontline.

**ST LOUIS -3.5
-I really like St Louis in this game even though they are on the road and have struggled on the road this year. The pace of the game should be slow, which I believe really plays to the advantage of the Billikens. Both teams prefer and are comfortable at playing a slow down game, but I believe St Louis is just better at doing it. I will take my chances on this one for 2 units.

[Nielsio]

Good call on FSU, any likes for tomorrow's games? Kansas also looking solid against kansas state.

[Goodfella10]

Thanks Nielsio. At a quick glance 2 games stand out that I plan to look at more in depth, but those would be Michigan +7.5 and Pitt -4.5. I think 7.5 may be a bit much to give the Wolverines, but my one worry is how they are going to defend Zeller without getting in foul trouble. They ran into foul trouble against Virginia in the post and Scott and company ate them alive. As for Pitt, I just think they are in need of a win after 3 straight losses. Depaul hasn't beaten anyone of substance all season and I think this is a time to buy stock in Pitt against a bad Depaul team.

[Goodfella10]

Looking like both plays are likely going to be heavily bet by the public so I will likely have to check back in on them this afternoon once more money comes in. Michigan's inability to defend the post may cause me to change over to the Hoosiers, but I will have to look at some numbers.

[Goodfella10]

Double posted on accident.

[Goodfella10]

1/5/12

RECORD (14-8) +16.1 UNITS
PLAY OF THE DAY (2-3) -1.3 UNITS

No time for write-ups right now.

***OLD DOMINION -3

****STANFORD - PK

**INDIANA -7.5
-I changed this due to where the money is at and Michigan's inability to defend the post if fouls become an issue. Indiana has proved to be top notch at home this season.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL

[Goodfella10]

ADDING:

**UCLA -2
-If you look at 3 of the 4 losses Arizona has had this season, they were beat on the boards. I think UCLA has the ability to beat them on the boards and therefore I think they have a good shot to win the game. If Smith can stay out of foul trouble and contribute, then I think Arizona is in trouble. The Bruins will have issues trying to guard a small lineup, but will benefit from having the size advantage as well.

[Goodfella10]

1/7/12

RECORD (15-11) +8.2 UNITS
PLAY OF THE DAY (2-3) -1.3 UNITS

Awful evening Thursday going 1-3. Hoping to rebound today with a big card.

PLAY OF THE DAY
****KANSAS STATE +1
-I would argue that while Missouri has been very successful this year, they really haven't played any great opponents. Notre Dame, Nova, Oklahoma, and Old Dominion are teams that will be lucky to make the NCAA tourney. Cal and Illinois will likely be there, but I don't think either will be higher than a 6 or 7 seed. Kansas St is probably the best opponent they have played this year and it is in a true road game. Missouri had trouble with Old Dominion and I think that Kansas St is similar to the Monarchs with a lot more talent. The tempo of the game is key here, but I think Kansas St puts the Tigers undefeated season to rest today.

***VANDY -16
-I will continue to fade Auburn until they prove they can compete on the road with a quality team. As we saw the other night, they looked terrible against FSU and that will continue again today on the road against Vandy. It is true that Vandy has struggled this year, but I believe they have turned over a new leaf and will start to be the Vandy team many expected early in the year. I expect a 20+ point win today for Vanderbilt.

**TENNESSEE +8
-The Vols have really struggled this year, but I believe this matchup with Florida is a decent one. For one, they are at home in a game where the crowd should play a small factor in an early game. Their athleticism is actually an advantage for them both in the post and on the perimeter. Outside of Young, Florida really doesn't have a reliable scoring threat in the post. The Gator guards are very good, but small and Rosario is listed as doubtful for the game. I see this game being closer than most think and I believe the Gators free throw shooting (65%) will be a factor late in covering the spread.

**TEXAS TECH +14.5
-There is no doubt there is a huge talent discrepancy between these two squads, but one thing Billy G does is game plan very well. I have watched him a ton during his time at Kentucky and the guy can coach. He does lack in other areas, but I expect that he will keep this game closer than most think. I expect the Raiders to dictate tempo and if they can do that then they should stay within 14 points.
GOOD LUCK TO ALL

[Goodfella10]

ADDING:

**CLEMSON +1
-The Tigers have covered 7 of the last 9 at home against FSU and I think they will again today. I think these teams matchup fairly well and home court advantage should be a big factor in the outcome of the game. I will take my chances on the Tigers in this one.

[Goodfella10]

ADDING:

**PROVIDENCE +3
-Betting against Seton Hall has killed me as of late, but Providence plays fairly well at home and I think they matchup well with the Pirates. I'm going to go against them again tonight in hopes that my losing streak betting against them ends.

[Nielsio]

Looks like your killing the books again today! Gongrats Goodfella!
Any thoughts on the creighton game?

[Goodfella10]

Thanks again Nielsio. I have no plans to bet it, but if I had to I would bet Bradley. The spread is screaming to take Creighton, but the spread is falling and the money is on the BlueJays. I have to admit I have seen only a couple minutes of Creighton and none of Bradley, so take this for what it is worth.

[Goodfella10]

adding:

**austin peay +4.5