[naslax13]

why do you like seton hall tonight? that probably shouldnt be a strong play the way wvu is capable of performing at their best. im likely going to try to stay away from it tonight but i imagine the majority will be on wvu.

washington should destroy oregon state (cbb)- i expect that line to move 2 points unfavorably from right now.

Seton hall is a great home squad,wvu packed with young unexperienced kids

[SlickRick1382]

I need you to get on twitter or something so we can get your picks =p

I miss out on all the winners...

Wish you a Happy New Year Bro, much success and health to you for the new year.

[naslax13]

hey guys sorry i've been away,

Bowl pick tomorrow:

Gators -2 for 10 units

[SlickRick1382]

Great call bud ...

Appreciate the message !!!!

[figue]

[naslax13]

Pick: Seton Hall+3 [5 unit]

I like this squad at home tn, uconn has been squeaking by games and almost lost to usf on the road in its only road game. Also watched them almost lose to an average fairfield team. I believe conns coach is suspended as well. Seton is rolling right now after a blowout home win vs wvu.

[naslax13]

2011 season: 26-23 (+38.5 units)

You can say what you want about my betting units but just remember that these big wagers can be going either way and that I have managed to be on the right end of the bigger plays consistently throughout the season. Goodluck on Seton tn fellas.

[naslax13]

adding: 5 more units on seton +3, now a 10 unit play

[naslax13]

HEDGE BET: 5 UNITS ON UCONN -5 FOR SECOND HALF.

this gives us the possibility to make 15 units on a 11 point spread on this game, we get 5 units on uconn +8, and 10 units on seton +3, anywhere in the middle of that spread we win 15 units. Also, we are protected against a connecticut run.

[PAULYPOKER]

HEDGE BET: 5 UNITS ON UCONN -5 FOR SECOND HALF. this gives us the possibility to make 15 units on a 11 point spread on this game, we get 5 units on uconn +8, and 10 units on seton +3, anywhere in the middle of that spread we win 15 units. Also, we are protected against a connecticut run.

You Sharp mutha you!!

[naslax13]

2011 season: 27-23 (+43 units)


+4.5 UNIT Win on Seton tonight , cut the 10 unit bet in half, but I would make that same bet 100 times in a row, its a very smart and safe bet with some nice action on a comeback.

[SlickRick1382]

Nice work bro....

[naslax13]

PICK: Under 64 Orange Bowl [5 units]

Take it now, I think the sharps could hammer it back down a point or two. Everyone and their mother's on the over, opened at 58 where vegas thought it should be and we are now getting some nice value off the 6 point public inflation..

[Lucky1g]

im seeing an opener of 60-62 depending where you look?..where did it open at 58?..like the pick and agree on the public $$inflating this line

[PAULYPOKER]

WEST VIRGINIA +142

[naslax13]

im seeing an opener of 60-62 depending where you look?..where did it open at 58?..like the pick and agree on the public $$inflating this line

covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=260199
and also on vegas insider it says 58.5 open

[naslax13]

WEST VIRGINIA +142

I lean on WVU but lean harder on the under, wvu lost their top rusher and they are gonna need to rush effectively to beat up on clemson, clemsons pretty good vs the pass and terrible vs the run. Clemson qb only a sophomore may have some jitters in his first bowl game, geno is more unaffected by the conditions. Clemson played shitty on road in big games, and played shitty against any good teams in general besides va tech. So Yes I agree with WVU but the lead rusher out kinda sucks.

[SlickRick1382]

I got this total back on December 6th at 58.5. Been waiting for it to go past the 63-64 area. Glad it finally did. Hopefully I can middle and hit it well.

[naslax13]

damn looks like everyone was right on this one, book is gona take a hit

[Lucky1g]

i disagree about the books taking a hit... ALOT more $$$ on clemson than was on the over tonight..books cleaned up with clemson losing..if you look at how much this line jumped and how easily it went over..your thoughts about the"public" inflating the line...im pretty sure it was sharp money attacking a weak #..easy to say in retrospect tho

[naslax13]

i disagree about the books taking a hit... ALOT more $$$ on clemson than was on the over tonight..books cleaned up with clemson losing..if you look at how much this line jumped and how easily it went over..your thoughts about the"public" inflating the line...im pretty sure it was sharp money attacking a weak #..easy to say in retrospect tho

covers.com/articles/artic...?theArt=260199

if you read that article you can see the reason the line moved to 3 was because the professional bettors pounded wvu when the line initially came out, public was on clemson. the number of bets on clemson was clearly higher but they are more concerned with the amount of $ put down, so if one guy puts down $10,000 on wvu, then the 50 bums who bet 50 on clemson don't amount to much.

The sharps and the public were both on the over, which is why the total got pushed up 6 points. It isn't that I liked the under it was that I bet for the long term, and I look for special situations that produce value. In this case the books were clearly in a position to move the line as high as they possibly could so they could entice sharps to bet the Under due to ridiculous value since there was no one at all betting the under, and their ultimate goal is to NEVER have unequal money distribution on both sides. All the books want to do is to collect the juice, unless they are trapping the public. In order to collect the juice here they had to move it extremely high because both sharps and squares were on the over. In most cases the sharps and squares take opposite sides which is why the lines don't usually fluctuate more than a few points but in this case everybody was on one side in a big way and in this case everyone was right. I just figured I'd sneak in and steal a line with more value that the books initially intended to give out.

Also, if you look on the forums, many people on here were all over WVU. So no, clemson did not hurt them as much as you think. If you looked on sports book.com in the "popular bets" section, the number 2 bet was clemson, the number 3 was the over and the number 4 was wvu.. the under didn't even make the top 20 list that they give you.

[naslax13]

im seeing an opener of 60-62 depending where you look?..where did it open at 58?..like the pick and agree on the public $$inflating this line

i disagree about the books taking a hit... ALOT more $$$ on clemson than was on the over tonight..books cleaned up with clemson losing..if you look at how much this line jumped and how easily it went over..your thoughts about the"public" inflating the line...im pretty sure it was sharp money attacking a weak #..easy to say in retrospect tho

Sound like a bit of a flip flopper ..

[SlickRick1382]

Sucks on the loss bro. I was hoping to middle and should of just let my initial bet, which killed the closing line, let it just ride ...

[naslax13]

Yea man didn't know you were on the over, sorry about that.

[Lucky1g]

no flip flopping here kiddo..check my daily thread, i played WVA didnt touch the total..was simply saying i agreed with your thought process of why you chose to make UNDER your play...im up more units in college hoops alone than u are in all sports combined. naslax, u and i are contrarian bettors, we think similarly when we decide who to bet. Best of luck to u going forward, i'll be checking in from time to time

[naslax13]

I always respect your picks, I know your a good capper, but just don't appreciate the snide comments you leave on here from time to time

[naslax13]

I think I am leaning toward K state in this one although the line movement sucks.. After a blowout loss to Oklahoma, K State got right back on track and was better than ever. Traveled to Oklahoma State and lost a nail biter. That loss alone proves this team can contend with a top caliber offense. Oklahoma state beat oklahoma 44-10 at home, and Baylor 59-24 at home, so for k state to go in their stadium and play within 7 leaves me to think that there is no reason they should not be able to play arkansas in this bowl within 10 at a neutral location. K state clearly has a lot of heart and should show up tonight.. No play on this yet

[PAULYPOKER]

there are 2 teams better than Arkansas,

LSU and Alabama,

bottom line the SEC is the NFL compared to the rest of the BCS................

[naslax13]

there are 2 teams better than Arkansas,

LSU and Alabama,

bottom line the SEC is the NFL compared to the rest of the BCS................

Ark is a powerhouse, no question there.. but have you looked at their road games. (2-2) Obviously they lost on road to lsu and alabama, but their two wins to ole miss 29-24, and vanderbilt 31-28 were very close games. So without the comfort of their home field,(and throw in the loss of the o-coordinator,d-coordinator, and special teams coach) they may not be that same powerhouse, while k state clearly showed they can contend under such conditions with such a close loss AT oklahoma state who I feel is a top 5 team for sure, with a better offense then ark. I usually agree with ya, but I just feel like 9.5-10 points is too much. However, the fact that we are getting that much and this isn't a 7.5 point line is a bit alarming, I was expecting it to move the other way. Just throwing out some thoughts, no play on it yet

[DOMINATER]

I agree in that 7 1/2 is making Arkansas look appealing I remember when I played in college we lost our offensive coach and our special teams coach what a big letdown especially after all the big games we won it does hurt ,and you lose it at that age moreso than in the pros.We lost are last game ,we looked like a different team on gamefilm

[SlickRick1382]

Ark is a powerhouse, no question there.. but have you looked at their road games. (2-2) Obviously they lost on road to lsu and alabama, but their two wins to ole miss 29-24, and vanderbilt 31-28 were very close games. So without the comfort of their home field,(and throw in the loss of the o-coordinator,d-coordinator, and special teams coach) they may not be that same powerhouse, while k state clearly showed they can contend under such conditions with such a close loss AT oklahoma state who I feel is a top 5 team for sure, with a better offense then ark. I usually agree with ya, but I just feel like 9.5-10 points is too much. However, the fact that we are getting that much and this isn't a 7.5 point line is a bit alarming, I was expecting it to move the other way. Just throwing out some thoughts, no play on it yet

I like K State as well

Although line is already down to 8.5 on my books which follow 5 Dimes and CRIS

[sixrolla]

haha you know a legit "investor" when he plays at sportsbook.com and has a billy walters avatar

This

[naslax13]

Glad I didn't make the play, the line movement was too alarming. Cant go against the tape. Would have only felt comfortable making the play if books had k state at 7.5 or 7 ... 9.5 was too strong of movement for arkansas

[naslax13]

2011 season: 27-24 (+37.5 units)

[naslax13]

Pick: Pitt -3.5 [5 units]

I love this play, its not a contrarian bet but I just feel like SMU is outclassed in this one. Its a rare
gut play that I make once in a while, not backed by much of anything else. goodluck if you tail