[GutBrain]

Leaning heavily towards taking Boise ML (+100), but it looks a little too good to be true.
Am I missing something here? Thank you for any info.

[hoop guru]

I am leaning on the under 67 for the first half. Fresno St offense is horrendous. Boise St had a tough up-tempo game at san jose st over the weekend. I think Boise will also try to slow to Fresno St approach.

[seanjohn007]

i wouldnt play the money line. i agree at first glance the line does look to good to be true but alot of people were saying the same thing about dayton and n.iowa, both of which lost straight up and ats. so make sure you know everything about the game before you play. i havnt capped the game yet so i cant help you more then that but im sure there will be a loooooot of threads about this tomorrow

[Crayzee]

you gotta wait till tip time on pickem games
if it stays pick go with the road team
if it goes 1-2 points either way take the points
at a pickem boise looks like the play
if they stay pick or wind up getting a point they are still the play
if it goes to boise -1 or more
then i either take fresno or no play

[roadwarrior1]

I have Boise at +1 right now.........

[Bookman]

This is the most attractive line of the day, IMO. I would compare it to the Troy game this weekend (rather than Dayton or N. Iowa) because Troy was hot, healthy and on the road vs. the worst team in the conference (FAU); Dayton was shorthanded, N. Iowa was at home vs. a quality rival. The Trojans +1 to -1.5 line seemed too good to be true wherever you got it, but they covered easily.

Now we have Boise, a fairly hot team at full strength heading to Fresno to take on the worst team in the conference. Furthermore, Fresno might be without a senior starter (O'Neil, leads in assists) which could have a significant impact given the overall youth of the Bulldogs. That said, Fresno has been playing to the level of their competition, losing tight games to WAC powers Utah St. and Nevada. I am guessing that is the reason for today's line, but I must say it is tough not jump on it now.

[flavo-ice]

I am waiting as crayzee advises to see what happens with this line. That will say alot about whether to play the game or pass.

The fact that Boise has jumped off the page to everyone as a great pick(including myself) immediately raises the red flag for further investigation.

I watched Fresno play hawaii last week and they were pitiful. Hawaii stinks themselves, so when Hawaii blows a team out you know they are really bad.

Boise just won on the road as a dog against a decent San Jose St. team. These are the most recent games for these teams, exactly what everyone remembers, so why did the linesmakers install Boise as a slight dog? To entice Boise action?

Perhaps it is just a headfake or the books playing tricks to keep people guessing.

[floridagolfer]

you gotta wait till tip time on pickem games
if it stays pick go with the road team
if it goes 1-2 points either way take the points
at a pickem boise looks like the play
if they stay pick or wind up getting a point they are still the play
if it goes to boise -1 or more
then i either take fresno or no play

I'm baffled why you would take a team at pick'em and not at -1. If you think that team is going to win the game, you're not losing anything at -1.

[flavo-ice]

I'm baffled why you would take a team at pick'em and not at -1. If you think that team is going to win the game, you're not losing anything at -1.

I don't think he's worried about the difference between a PK and -1. He is watching the line moves.

In reality Boise going from -1 to Pk to +1 means nothing no matter which side you take, so the line moves are just tricks the linesmakers use to confuse and/or draw action to a certain side.

Perhaps if we see Boise going from +1 to PK to -1 people will be jumping aboard Boise left and right, which may be exactly what the books want to accomplish. When in reality that line move means nothing when it comes to the outcome of the game, as 1 point games are rare during the regular season.

[mixpicks]

you gotta wait till tip time on pickem games
if it stays pick go with the road team
if it goes 1-2 points either way take the points
at a pickem boise looks like the play
if they stay pick or wind up getting a point they are still the play
if it goes to boise -1 or more
then i either take fresno or no play

This Sounds Backwards. Wounder how you come up this this. IF line moves to Boise-1or2, that would mean big $ bet on them, smart$, That's Good IMO, If they are getting pts. boise =no play if 2.5 or more... also look at the public% too. (AS You Know) $moves, lines. and public on boise, PK (why would it go to +) if so bosie bad play..Also, WHY, would their moneyline, be + should be even. Like last night I played,(Open@ +2.5) went down to +1=Good///SUNS+1.5 depending where, and the $LINE was EV. SUNS Is da Play... Anyway, bol SI can help you out with this kind of betting.

[roadwarrior1]

Boise line went from +1 to Pk on my book......Im jumping on now!

[Crayzee]

This Sounds Backwards. Wounder how you come up this this. IF line moves to Boise-1or2, that would mean big $ bet on them, smart$, That's Good IMO, If they are getting pts. boise =no play if 2.5 or more... also look at the public% too. (AS You Know) $moves, lines. and public on boise, PK (why would it go to +) if so bosie bad play..Also, WHY, would their moneyline, be + should be even. Like last night I played,(Open@ +2.5) went down to +1=Good///SUNS+1.5 depending where, and the $LINE was EV. SUNS Is da Play... Anyway, bol SI can help you out with this kind of betting.

i personally dont beleive money solely moves the line
i think their is alot of trickery going on with the oddsmakers

[dragon_2K9]

Im from Fresno and FSU plays better at home. just a FYI. Im staying away from this game. Their last game at home vs Utah was a dog fight.

[flavo-ice]

No matter what, one thing you can bank on is that Fresno will be more focused for this game after that disaster at hawaii Thursday night. Doesn't mean they will win, but I don't expect them to throw in the towel on this one like they did after the first 5 minutes Thursday night.

Something about this line just stinks(for backing boise).

Here's a quick look at their conference record. The majority were tight ball games and just didn't fall their way. The blowout at Hawaii is looking more like the exception than the norm.

Jan 3New Mexico St. Lost 66-797-8 (0-1)
Jan 10San Jose St. Lost 68-717-9 (0-2)
Jan 15@Utah St. Lost 61-657-10 (0-3)
Jan 17@Nevada Lost 60-657-11 (0-4)
Jan 22Louisiana Tech Won 63-468-11 (1-4)
Jan 24@San Jose St. Lost 79-858-12 (1-5)
Jan 28Hou. Baptist Won 81-639-12 (1-5)
Jan 31Utah St. Lost 77-839-13 (1-6)
Feb 6@Hawaii Lost 43-699-14 (1-7)

[roadwarrior1]

now I have Boise at -1................

+1 at 10.00AM
PK at 12:00
-1 at 4:30PM

[WestsidePete]

But Fresno St is only 1-6 ATS at home....hell, it's a total toss up...anyone think the fact Boise St plays Utah St next means a let down coming tonite?? this is also Boise's 4th straight road game and last on the trip...I'm on Boise St +1 but may back out completely at this point....

[Vonnegut]

I believe Boise State is the "cheese". Not touching this one, no sir, no way.

[WestsidePete]

I believe Boise State is the "cheese". Not touching this one, no sir, no way.

LOL....nice trap there.....Boise St may look ahead to their big battle with Utah St and Fres St just got totally embarrassed.....Boise probably comes in thinking they roll over for them....no play for me now

[flavo-ice]

You just can't win on this one. If you roll on Boise and they get clocked then you learn the hard way it was a trap. If Boise dismantles Fresno, then you realize the oddsmakers were playing mind games with the line and it was a gift.

Confusion, and ultimately passing on the game is probably what they want. Which is exactly what I am doing.

[roadwarrior1]

small play for me.....on Boise PK. Just a sprinkle to see what I could have done?

[GutBrain]

Lesson learned.

Boise -3 for the second bailed me out, but still... swing and a miss.