UConn -5.5 (-110) for 3 units- Going against what seems to be the grain here, but I think UConn will simply be too much for Harvard tonight. Harvard is a very talented and disciplined team. Harvard is returning all 5 starters from last year, and they like to play slow-paced, patient, and take good shots, which has helped them prevail against perhaps more skilled opponents so far. They have been very efficient on defense, allowing only 54 ppg's. However, they have not payed a team remotely close to UConn's offensive capabilities thus far. Between Jeremy Lamb, freshman Ryan Boatright, and explosive guard Shabazz Napier, this is a high-paced, high-powered offensive team ranked in the top 5 in many offensive categories. Harvard will have a very difficult time containing this athletic and explosive offense, especially coming off of a game where they just let up 80 to Seattle. I think a major factor in this game will be rebounding, of which UConn has a huge advantage. UConn doesn't have any one dominant rebounded, but Oriakhi and freshman Andre Drummond are long and strong down low. This is a UConn team where the rebounding is pretty spread out. Everyone, including the guards, crashes the boards, and I think this can work to their advantage tonight against a Harvard team who shoots nearly 50% of all their shots from 3, and three's typically result in long rebounds when they miss, and UConn guards should be boxing out and grab these. Not letting up second chances and getting out on the 3 will be huge factors for UConn against a patient time that could really frustrate them, but I think UConn will definitely not overlook Harvard tonight and should come out ready to play at home. UConn knows Harvard's strengths, and I think their length and athleticism will really disrupt Harvard on the offensive and defensive end. I don't think Harvard will be able to stay that close when it's all said and done.
West Virginia +4 (-106) for 2 units- Kansas State has looked very impressive so far, but they haven't played much competition. I think West Virginia has a huge edge in guard play in this matchup, and while they have been grotesque from 3 so far, the driving ability of Truck Bryant and the freshman Hinds, they really know hot to put pressure on defenses. Jones has been an absolute monster thus far, and his consistent double-double's have aided this team tremendously. With this considerable advantage, West Virginia gives up a little down low. I think they will get out-rebounded tonight, but if Kilici is able to maintain his physical and aggressive play throughout without getting into huge trouble, he will really provide some assistance down low. Overall, I think West Virginia will keep this one close and it will come down to potentially a last possession, in which case getting 4 is obviously too much. This will be Kansas State's first true test as they've played one of the easiest schedules in the country so far (around 320th). I think West Virginia is under-valued here.
May have one or two more plays later. Still deciding on a few. GL
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JasonD5 Thursday Picks: 57-38-1 +32.2 units YTD
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