[onacloud]

Not true.

If your betting 350 to win 20 and lose one
You only need to win 17 in a row to make up for it not 200

Even massive favorites are extremely +EV
Most people don't know this because they have been told otherwise
These same people have been sat down in front of a TV with crap filled diapers
and believe every thing they are told.

If you parlay two -10000 favorites together and bet 350 to win 7
-10000 is the same as 24pt favorite and we see there is only 1 loss in 348 games
The math says:
173 winners at $7 a pop = $1211
1 loser at -$350
still a massive profit at +$861

Ching, I win again!!

interesting

[Emily_Haines]

Flawed logic, on two counts.

Firstly a sample of 348 is not nearly enough to conclude that 347-1 is usable data. If you look at, say 16-24 point favorites, how often is the final result out my more than 24 points compared to the spread? I don't know the answer to that but would strongly advise you to look at that in order to validate your base data.

Secondly the average odds for 23+ point favourites is not -10000. That is about right for a 24 point favourite but for a 30 point favourite you are closer to -30000.

OK, I was wrong a little

sometimes you will be betting 350 to win 6,5,4 and 3 depending on how big the ML's are

but this is still massively +EV

[FourLengthsClear]

OK, I was wrong a little

sometimes you will be betting 350 to win 6,5,4 and 3 depending on how big the ML's are

but this is still massively +EV

You ignored the first flaw!

[Emily_Haines]

You ignored the first flaw!

348 is enough

I disagree.

[FourLengthsClear]

348 is enough

I disagree.

LOL.
It's not a matter of opinion. Whether you favour Bayesian techniques or more mainstream methods of calculating confidence intervals, it is nowhere near enough.

[Emily_Haines]

LOL.
It's not a matter of opinion. Whether you favour Bayesian techniques or more mainstream methods of calculating confidence intervals, it is nowhere near enough.

Were talking five years. There is not enough 24pt+ favorites to ever have enough data even going back to the beginning of time still would not be enough.

Even if we use the low end and conservatively estimate a payout of $3 for every 2 team ML parlay, we would have to lose at a rate higher than 1 out of 117 to lose money.

My assumptions are that the win rate will be higher than 117:1 especially using favorites after the first month and the payouts on average will be higher than $3.

$$$$$

[FourLengthsClear]

a) Were talking five years. There is not enough 24pt+ favorites to ever have enough data even going back to the beginning of time still would not be enough.

b)Even if we use the low end and conservatively estimate a payout of $3 for every 2 team ML parlay, we would have to lose at a rate higher than 1 out of 117 to lose money.

My assumptions are that the win rate will be higher especially using favorites after the first month will win at a higher rate than 117:1 and the payouts on average will be higher than $3.

$$$$$

a) That is why I suggested you use a secondary sample which is a 1) decent proxy for your primary and 2) should be a much larger sample.

b) That, of course would be 1 in 117 parlays - not 117 matches.

Your assumption might be right and it might not, I freely admit to not having the data. The approach you have used to reach that assumption however, is not sound.

[Emily_Haines]

101013547-1	12/20/11 12:35pm	$299.00	$63.48	Pending	7 Team Parlay
				Pending	12/20/11 10:30pm College Basketball 568 UCLA -1900* vs Cal Irvine
				Pending	12/20/11 7:00pm College Basketball 576 Kentucky -57000* vs Samford
				Pending	12/20/11 9:00pm College Basketball 584 New Mexico -5500* vs Montana State
				Pending	12/20/11 10:00pm College Basketball 586 Saint Mary's CA -2000* vs Eastern Washington
				Pending	12/20/11 7:00pm College Basketball 592 Syracuse -3500* vs Bucknell
				Pending	12/20/11 6:30pm College Basketball 594 Purdue -4000* vs IPFW
				Pending	12/20/11 8:30pm College Basketball 600 Ohio State -5000* vs Lamar

[Emily_Haines]

101213776-1	12/22/11 12:26pm	$299.00	$43.39	Pending	6 Team Parlay
				Pending	12/22/11 6:30pm College Basketball 544 Michigan -2150* vs Bradley
				Pending	12/22/11 7:00pm College Basketball 550 Virginia Tech -3500* vs Eastern Michigan
				Pending	12/22/11 7:00pm College Basketball 554 Syracuse -4250* vs Tulane
				Pending	12/22/11 8:30pm College Basketball 582 Ohio State -9000* vs Miami Ohio
				Pending	12/22/11 1:00pm College Basketball 624 Kentucky -9000* vs Loyola Maryland
				Pending	12/22/11 9:00pm College Basketball 668 New Mexico -6000* vs UMKC

[cheesehead004]

Wasn't there some clown on here a few years back that put down 5 figures on one huge fave like this and lost? I think it was Gonzaga? haha...

BOL though

[ringemup]

no wonder heritage limited ur wagers.

[warriorfan707]

ytd on these wagers?

[Emily_Haines]

ytd on these wagers?

+209.94

with the first leg of today's parlay a WIN

[warriorfan707]

+209.94

with the first leg of today's parlay a WIN

And never even a thank you to me for showing you this way of making easy monies.

[Emily_Haines]

And never even a thank you to me for showing you this way of making easy monies.

You tease totals and buy points and I'm only going with big money lines.

The math proves these will win and lead me on the path to prosperity.

[warriorfan707]

You tease totals and buy points and I'm only going with big money lines.

The math proves these will win and lead me on the path to prosperity.

Still unwilling to give credit where credit is due

[Emily_Haines]

Still unwilling to give credit where credit is due

I have done this before. One year I just bet big moneylines straight up to win like $5. Won about 40-50 in a row and didn't lose one. I don't even recall any real nasty ones I had to sweat out. At least by parlaying a few together you can make a slightly bigger score and I'll give you credit for that.

[warriorfan707]

I have done this before. One year I just bet big moneylines straight up to win like $5. Won about 40-50 in a row and didn't lose one. I don't even recall any real nasty ones I had to sweat out. At least by parlaying a few together you can make a slightly bigger score and I'll give you credit for that.

One would think you would have been less cynical in my thread then.

[Emily_Haines]

One would think you would have been less cynical in my thread then.

I'm only cynical on the totals you put in there, especially the CBB ones as those things can go over/under by a lot sometimes. Bad things happen in those CBB totals, overtime, foul fests or just straight unpredicted crazyness.

[warriorfan707]

Free money.

[Emily_Haines]

102452303-1	12/31/11 1:14pm	$350.00	$33.74	Pending	4 Team Parlay
				Pending	12/31/11 2:00pm College Basketball 560 Florida -5000* vs Yale
				Pending	12/31/11 6:00pm College Basketball 602 BYU -10000* vs San Diego
				Pending	12/31/11 4:00pm College Basketball 638 Weber State -1600* vs Sacramento State
				Pending	12/31/11 4:00pm College Basketball 652 Kansas -60000* vs North Dakota

[Emily_Haines]

103557856-1	1/7/12 8:54am	$299.00	$57.53	Pending	6 Team Parlay
				Pending	1/7/12 1:45pm College Basketball 556 Vanderbilt -1700* vs Auburn
				Pending	1/7/12 2:00pm College Basketball 570 Harvard -4750* vs Darthmouth
				Pending	1/7/12 2:30pm College Basketball 582 North Carolina -42000* vs Boston College
				Pending	1/7/12 6:00pm College Basketball 622 BYU -2150* vs San Francisco
				Pending	1/7/12 7:00pm College Basketball 630 Old Dominion -4500* vs Towson
				Pending	1/7/12 8:00pm College Basketball 668 Gonzaga -3500* vs Santa Clara

[Dank_Fire]

Hey wawarrior where you playing battlefield 3 otherday on ps3? i was in the game with some dude same name

[warriorfan707]

How many times I gotta ask you to post your ytd $ results

[Emily_Haines]

104165717-1	1/11/12 10:45am	$299.00	$22.33	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	1/11/12 7:00pm College Basketball 762 Western Michigan -2500* vs Northern Illinois
				Pending	1/11/12 8:00pm College Basketball 781 Kentucky -3000* vs Auburn

[Emily_Haines]

+301.21 ytd

[warriorfan707]

+301.21 ytd

[golfhotel95476]

haha not bad at

[xyzky]

Wasn't there some clown on here a few years back that put down 5 figures on one huge fave like this and lost? I think it was Gonzaga? haha...

BOL though

This reminds me of Curious...Think we lost it all and his mind....

[uup115]

What are the parameters of these plays?

[Kindred]

wow what books paid you to make this thread...great way for noobs to get buried, parlay big chalk

[Emily_Haines]

104274420-1	1/12/12 10:17am	$299.00	$52.03	Pending	5 Team Parlay
				Pending	1/12/12 10:00pm College Basketball 582 Stanford -7000* vs Utah U
				Pending	1/12/12 10:00pm College Basketball 588 Nevada -1800* vs San Jose State
				Pending	1/12/12 10:00pm College Basketball 594 Long Beach State -10000* vs UC Davis
				Pending	1/12/12 8:00pm College Basketball 624 Murray State -3500* vs Jacksonville State
				Pending	1/12/12 8:00pm College Basketball 644 South Dakota State -1800* vs South Dakota

[Emily_Haines]

+323.54 ytd

[uup115]

+375.57...weeeeeeeeee

[Dom177]

That's a lot of chalk to lay but if I had the $300 to win $27 I'd give it a shot. Good luck on these the rest of the year