Originally Posted by
BiffTFinancial
hey, Madison, good morning. i like OSU/KU under better than UL/UK over. i have OSU, 69-63, and UK, 70-58. however, i'm starting to rethink UK total. am thinking that it starts slow and then ultimately opens up, question is when.
the pace of UL/UK is really hard to judge. it's the most interesting strategic point surrounding the Final Four, i think. that is, does Pitino try to play fast or slow. most talking heads seem to be anticipating that Pitino will try to slow it down. that might work at the start, but i can't imagine it working the entire game. if UL plays slow, they will lose their easy buckets from transition and pressure. with their halfcourt offense, against UK, they'll need those (i don't see a lot of runners in the lane for Russ Smith and Siva tonight). if they play up tempo, well, UK is the best transition offense team in the country. most likely, i think that UL might start at a slow tempo, breaking opportunistically, but it won't work, and once UK builds a lead, Pitino will have to up the tempo and press. if UL plays up tempo, the over is guaranteed. i really like UK in that game, will probably bet them. may consider UK 1H or 1H under. it really depends how long Pitino can keep it close with slow tempo (assuming that he does that).