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jtuck NCAA Hoops 08-09
Had a good season last year, but it was my first year betting them so i'll chalk it up to beginners luck. Going to post my plays here until I run out of money, so hopefully this will go on for quite some time.
Sticking to teams I am familiar with to start things off, will broaden out as the season progresses.
11/17
1* Memphis -15.5 (-110)
11/18
2* Ole Miss -10 (-110)
1* UT Martin +25 (-110)
GL All
1-0, +1.00Originally Posted by jtuck
11/17
1* Memphis -15.5 (-110)
11/18
2* Ole Miss -10 (-110)
1* UT Martin +25 (-110)
For 11/18 Add
1* Texas -21.5 (-110)
1* UNC -9 1st Half (-110)
4-1 +3.9011/18
2* Ole Miss -10 (-110)
1* UT Martin +25 (-110)
1* Texas -21.5 (-110)
1* UNC -9 1st Half (-110)
Nothing stands out for tomorrow, possible small play on Murray State.
Just got home, nothing on Murry, but putting 1* on Nebraska -5.5 (-110).
5-1 +4.901* Nebraska -5.5 (-110)
11/20
2* UNLV -17 (-110)
1.5* BYU -32.5 (-110)
1* Iowa -9 (-110)
1* Memphis -21 (-110)
Going to stick with favorites until i get a better feel for the teams or it starts biting me in the ass, whichever comes first.
Not that I claim to know what I am doing but my strategy (one of many) is to narrow down the games to 3-5 favorites or small dogs, and then go from there. For some reason I have had decent success playing the favorites. There are WAY too many games in college bball for the lines to be sharp on the smaller conferences...
Just my .02
Gl!check out my season long thread, had a good last 2 days, hoping to keep it going tomorrow... Hopefully we're on the same shit!
That's usually the approach I have as well, and totally agree on the smaller conferences. Once C-USA conference play starts those will probably be at least half of my wagers. With the card as small as it is tomorrow I had time to look at all of the games pretty close. I'm just not seeing any value in the dogs at this point, and I think the bookmakers are a little weary to put big numbers on the board this early in the year, so we get games like Pitt/Miami Ohio, Memphis/Fairfield, and Clemson/Wofford that are just about done at halftime. This won't last long though, time for home dogs and small favorites is coming soon. I saw your season thread as well, good start, hopefully we both can keep it in the green. GL this year.
Last edited by jtuck; 11-19-08 at 10:51 PM.
It seems early in the year the large favorites always have a lot of value because these small schools just cant hang with the bigger teams. But at the same time you can see when they are inflated, I posted in another thread yesterday about how I felt -19 was high for Nova vs Niagara and look what happened, line drops to -16 and they win by 15.
I like that your approach is similar to mine, hopefully we can help each other out and provide unbiased insight and make ourselves some money.
GL!
I am on the last 3 as well but just wondering what you saw in the UNLV game, I think the lines about right. Also like Fairfield and Missouri and Washington... I know Fairfield and Mizzou are doggies but I think Xavier is going to struggle early without their beast Duncan and Lavender...
NAU has lost 40 PPG from last season and are relying heavily on untested players. They lost at Utah Valley by 6 despite shooting 46 percent from the field, and they will be hard pressed to shoot that well against a UNLV team that is the class of the Mountain West, returning three starters from last year's team that lost in the second round of the NCAA's to Kansas. They haven't shot the ball particularly well this year, but they begin to settle in with an experienced backcourt and this being their third game of the year. The line move to 16.5 is a little puzzling since my other three moved my way, but I am still pretty confident this is the right side.
Too many questions on both sides of the Missouri game for me to make a play this early in the year.
Add
1* Vandy -6 (-110)
Big day today, so much for only playing teams I'm very familiar with.
I like it jtuck, Love Memphis tonight even though it is up to 23.5. Also, what do you think about the UNLV line at 18.5?
Sorry to take so long, just got off work. 18.5 would still be a good play, i think it is a 20-25 point game at least, but you never know if the they are going to play the last 5 minutes hard or not, hopefully they won't take after our tigers tonight.
Not good. UNLV up 23 at the half and can't cover. Got lucky on BYU though, Memphis was a bad pick, and Vandy played like shit. Iowa is about all i think i did right today, so its back to the drawing board.
2* UNLV -17 (-110)
1.5* BYU -32.5 (-110)
1* Iowa -9 (-110)
1* Memphis -21 (-110)
1* Vandy -6 (-110)
2-3 -1.90 for the day, 7-4 +3.00 for the season.
11/21
3* Notre Dame -21 (-110)
1*Miami FL -7 (-110)
Got these in now, going to look at some others tomorrow if i get time. Not much stands out except for Notre Dame. LMU is just about as bad as they come. They were bad last year and their top two players transferred during the offseason. So far this year its been 3 games and 3 losses, including one by 21 to Wisconsin Milwaukee and a 9 point loss to highly regarded UC Davis. Put their lack of experience with their lack of talent together out on the floor against Notre Dame and it will get ugly. Only advantage for LMU is that its being played at their place.
Glad to see my top pick is yours also! I lost 3 games by a total of like 5 points yesterday, getting these games early is so key!
GL today!
Another rough day. Done with the big faves. Down to 8-5 +.70 For they year.11/21
3* Notre Dame -21 (-110)
1*Miami FL -7 (-110)
11/22
1*Loyola Chicago +6 (-110)
1*Tennessee Martin -6.5 (-110)
1*Saint Louis ML (EV)
3-0 Saturday, 11-5 +3.70 for the year.
11/23
1* USC -2
Will look at more tomorrow. Bed for now.
Loser on USC.
11-6 +2.60 YTD
One more for today, 1* Memphis -6 (-110). Haven't liked the way we've looked so far this year, but still 3-1 ATS and 4-0 straight up. Memphis is way more athletic than Xavier and is deeper off the bench. The number is about right if they play like they've been playing so far this year, but if the Tigers play close to their potential then I can't see Xavier keeping it in single digits.
Also hitting these for tomorrow
11/24
2* MTSU +8.5
1* CS Northridge +14
1* Yale +9
1* Kansas -5
Also will be putting 2* on AZ 1st half, line not up yet though.
AZ 1st half is -13.5. Got a shitty number but it still should be a cover.
Also add
3* UCONN -5
Won the three bigger plays
14-7 +8.50 with Kansas, Northridge, and Yale pending. A few small ones for tomorrow, will look at the tourney games in the morning.
Plays for 11/25
1* Penn St. -4
1* Niagara +1
1* UT Martin -4.5
1* Ball State +7
6-0 +10.00 Monday, 17-7 +11.50 YTD. Best day I've ever had, probably should fade myself today but i can't bring myself to do it.
Final Plays For 11/25
2* St. Joe's -8.5
1* Florida-4.5
1* Penn St. -4
1* Niagara +1
1* UT Martin -4.5
1* Ball State +7
Last edited by jtuck; 11-25-08 at 10:29 AM.
Congrats on the 7-0 day! BOL today! looks like we will be on a few games together! Lets get em..
nice way to start with st joe's
4-2 Tuesday. 21-9 +14.30 YTD.
Plays for 11/26
2* Cleveland St. -5
1* So. Ill PK
1* SMU +6
Very nice picks yesterday jtuck!!! Your advise allowed me to make $2000 on a parlay...Keep it up and I am onboard!
Thanks yall. Started out much better than I could have hoped which may or may not be a good thing. Good to hear I helped someone out there take from the books, working together to bring JJ's deposits back from Central America is what these forums should be about.
1-2 Wednesday, 22-11 +14.10 YTD
Plays for 11/27
1* Maryland +7.5
1* UTEP +9
1* SD State -6 (1st Half)
Nothing I like very much, most lines are about right but these games are worth small plays.
24-11 +16.10 with SD State pending. Just looked at the lines and these looked nice so i got on them now, will finish up card in the morning.
Early plays for 11/28
3* Dayton -3.5
2* Washington State -2.5
Small profit Thursday, 24-12 +15.00 YTD
11/28 Plays
3* Dayton -3.5
2* Washington State -2.5
1* UAB -2.5
1* Texas A&M -5
1* Tennessee -2.5
Could be adding more through the day but this is all for now.
2-3 Friday as Dayton goes 0-24 from 3 and comes 3 points short of covering and UAB blows a 8 point halftime lead. Down to 26-15 +12.50 YTD. Lots of action today but couldnt find anything i really like alot, but several small plays.
Plays for 11/29
1* Creighton +4
1* Tulsa +2
1* Seton Hall -13.5
1* Detroit +1.5
1* George Mason -5.5
1* VA Commonwealth +2
1* St. Bonaventure -3
For 11/29 Adding
1* Buffalo +4.5
1* Miami (OH) +7.5
6-3 +2.70 Saturday, 32-18 +15.20 YTD
Going 1* James Madison PK for the early game, will do rest of card when/if i wake up.
I have been browsing your thread lately and wanted to say congrats on a nice start to the season. I have followed some of your plays and won. Thanks. Goodluck on the rest of the season
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