1. 02-05-11 02:02 PM #1
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    Why Is Bulls Warriors Game Off the Board?

    I use a local with an online site and the Bulls/Warriors game was taken off the board. I don't see any injury info. Anyone know what's up? Thanks.
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  2. 02-05-11 02:23 PM #2
    demens
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    Monta Ellis has diarrhea.
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  3. 02-05-11 02:27 PM #3
    manu4life
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    Quote Originally Posted by demens View Post
    Monta Ellis has diarrhea.
    lol really??
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  4. 02-05-11 02:28 PM #4
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  5. 02-05-11 02:29 PM #5
    demens
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    Stomach problems/Stomach virus/Upset stomach...sounds like diarrhea to me. Missed shoot around.
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  6. 02-05-11 02:54 PM #6
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    He's been crying about not making the all star team too...
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  7. 02-05-11 08:09 PM #7
    ugabooga
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    Any word on if he's playing?
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  8. 02-05-11 08:16 PM #8
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    Yep...I believe he is...which explain why the line jumped a point about an hour ago.
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  9. 02-05-11 08:45 PM #9
    ugabooga
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    The line has moved out to 4 so i'm gonna try and play the middle.

    Bulls win by 3 or 4 are my best results.Assuming i've calculated it right haha. Good luck.
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  10. 02-05-11 08:50 PM #10
    demens
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    Quote Originally Posted by ugabooga View Post
    The line has moved out to 4 so i'm gonna try and play the middle.

    Bulls win by 3 or 4 are my best results.Assuming i've calculated it right haha. Good luck.

    Ehh, what? The line was never under 3 and there is no middle between 3 and 4 guy. Are you stupid or just crazy, because this is throwing money away.
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  11. 02-05-11 08:56 PM #11
    ugabooga
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    Quote Originally Posted by demens View Post
    Ehh, what? The line was never under 3 and there is no middle between 3 and 4 guy. Are you stupid or just crazy, because this is throwing money away.
    Oh shit, this is what i've got...let me know if i've f*cked up

    My bets-
    $67 Bulls –3
    $33 Bulls –3.5
    $100 GSW +4

    $200 outlay

    If Bulls win by 2 or lose, return Bet3 = +191
    If Bulls win by 3, B1 push, B3 pays = 67 + 191 = +258
    If Bulls win by 4, B1 + B2, B3 push = +291
    If Bulls win by 5+, B1 + B2 = 191

    Risking 9 to win $58 or $91
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  12. 02-05-11 08:58 PM #12
    hawley
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    Thats taking a huge punt mate, good luck
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  13. 02-05-11 09:01 PM #13
    ugabooga
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    Have i got my numbers wrong? Man i'm tripping out...as far as i can see, i'm risking $9 to win up to $91?
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  14. 02-05-11 09:07 PM #14
    demens
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    Quote Originally Posted by ugabooga View Post
    Oh shit, this is what i've got...let me know if i've f*cked up

    My bets-
    $67 Bulls –3
    $33 Bulls –3.5
    $100 GSW +4

    $200 outlay

    If Bulls win by 2 or lose, return Bet3 = +191
    If Bulls win by 3, B1 push, B3 pays = 67 + 191 = +258
    If Bulls win by 4, B1 + B2, B3 push = +291
    If Bulls win by 5+, B1 + B2 = 191

    Risking 9 to win $58 or $91

    So the most you can possibly make is $91 and you have to hope the game ends in a 4 point Bulls win. You can also make $58 if the Bulls win by exactly 3. ANY OTHER SCORE and you are losing money.

    No offense but this might be the dumbest bet i've ever seen someone make.
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  15. 02-05-11 09:08 PM #15
    demens
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    Quote Originally Posted by ugabooga View Post
    Have i got my numbers wrong? Man i'm tripping out...as far as i can see, i'm risking $9 to win up to $91?
    Yeah, expect you have about a hell freezing over' shot at winning that 91.
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  16. 02-05-11 09:12 PM #16
    Le_Donk
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    he also forgot that if bulls win by 3 that his 2nd bet is a loss
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  17. 02-05-11 09:13 PM #17
    ugabooga
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    I don;t see how you can say it's dumb.

    I don't play the middle, i risk $100 to win 91.
    I play the middle, i risk $9 to win exactly the same amount.

    I'm no Harvard scholar but it would seem playing the middle would be my better play.
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  18. 02-05-11 09:15 PM #18
    ugabooga
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    Quote Originally Posted by Le_Donk View Post
    he also forgot that if bulls win by 3 that his 2nd bet is a loss
    Nah i didnt include any lost bets in that equation.

    I'll admit that the chances of it happening are slim but i made a relatively big play on Dallas so i'm just looking to consolidate.
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  19. 02-05-11 09:55 PM #19
    fury
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    Quote Originally Posted by ugabooga View Post
    Oh shit, this is what i've got...let me know if i've f*cked up

    My bets-
    $67 Bulls –3
    $33 Bulls –3.5
    $100 GSW +4

    $200 outlay

    If Bulls win by 2 or lose, return Bet3 = +191
    If Bulls win by 3, B1 push, B3 pays = 67 + 191 = +258
    If Bulls win by 4, B1 + B2, B3 push = +291
    If Bulls win by 5+, B1 + B2 = 191

    Risking 9 to win $58 or $91
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  20. 02-05-11 10:02 PM #20
    ugabooga
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    Basic arithmetic....can you dig it?

    I don't play the middle, i risk $100 to win 91.
    I play the middle, i risk $9 to win exactly the same amount.

    I've even bolded the most relevant parts for you
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  21. 02-05-11 10:04 PM #21
    hawley
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    Most peoples idea of a middle wouldnt be -3 and +4
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  22. 02-05-11 10:09 PM #22
    ugabooga
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    No of course i know that and the chances of this happening are slim to none...but when i put it like i did 1 post up, i can't see why I don't do it. Anyway i'll probably feel a little bit of regret if Bulls cover but i guarantee i feel a whole lot more regret if i dont make the play. Each to their own i guess.
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  23. 02-05-11 10:10 PM #23
    fury
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    Yeah I got that part, I'm just trying to figure out why anyone would make such a stupid bet.
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  24. 02-05-11 10:11 PM #24
    hawley
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    Why did you hedge your original bets?

    Whatdo you think the result will be?
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  25. 02-05-11 10:18 PM #25
    ugabooga
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    Quote Originally Posted by fury View Post
    Yeah I got that part, I'm just trying to figure out why anyone would make such a stupid bet.
    Rather than say it's stupid,...why don't u explain to me why it is so i don't make such stupid plays in the future...

    In other words, explain to me why i should risk more to win exactly the same amount.


    Quote Originally Posted by hawley View Post
    Why did you hedge your original bets?

    Whatdo you think the result will be?
    The main reason i hedged was because Ellis was confirmed a starter but more money came in for Chicago...i dunno it didn't make sense to me. I saw the hedge angle, it made sense mathematically to me so i made the play.

    Obviously a little unconvential and unlikely to happen but on pure mathematics...it made sense.

    Not saying Bulls can't cover...and they probably will...just made sense to me.
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  26. 02-05-11 10:24 PM #26
    demens
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    Quote Originally Posted by ugabooga View Post
    Rather than say it's stupid,...why don't u explain to me why it is so i don't make such stupid plays in the future...

    In other words, explain to me why i should risk more to win exactly the same amount.
    Are you seriously that slow? You risk more to win the same amount because the odds of winning are about a million % better. My basic arithmetic might be off my a few % but not much. At least give yourself a chance when you middle. Playing between 3 and 4 is not middling. You have a better shot at hitting a 10 team parlay and guess what, should be right up your alley because you'll risk even less to win exactly the same amount.
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  27. 02-05-11 10:34 PM #27
    ugabooga
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    Read my post above, i did say the chances are slim....and to say it's the same chance of hitting 10 team parlay..surely you're taking the piss?

    Next time i'll just say i cancelled my bet for a small loss..with a slight chance of winning a full bet...than use the term 'middle'...ok.,..you f*cken c*ckhead.
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  28. 02-05-11 10:43 PM #28
    Le_Donk
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    let me show you ( took the push % from the sbr tools section )
    92,69 % of the time u lose the $ 9 ( any other score then bulls by 3 or 4 )
    3,83 % of the time u win $ 25 ( bulls win by 3 )
    3,48 % of the time u win $ 91 ( bulls win by 4 )
    your expected return : (0,0383 *25 ) +( 0,0348 * 91 ) + (0,9269 * -9 ) = -4,8276
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  29. 02-05-11 10:45 PM #29
    ugabooga
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    Quote Originally Posted by Le_Donk View Post
    let me show you ( took the push % from the sbr tools section )
    92,69 % of the time u lose the $ 9 ( any other score then bulls by 3 or 4 )
    3,83 % of the time u win $ 25 ( bulls win by 3 )
    3,48 % of the time u win $ 91 ( bulls win by 4 )
    your expected return : (0,0383 *25 ) +( 0,0348 * 91 ) + (0,9269 * -9 ) = -4,8276
    Thanks, yeah that looks about right. Out of curiosity, what range does it set as possible or likely outcomes? Does it take lines into consideration?

    Seems like a pretty handy tool.
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  30. 02-05-11 11:12 PM #30
    Le_Donk
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    i think it doesnt take the line into consideration
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