[ShowMeDaMoney]

Been playing around with 2h over\unders as of late, and I'm so far 3-0 on these plays.

What I do is sit out the total on all full games, and let the first half play out. If the 2h line would put the *opening game total* off by 12% or more, I make the play that puts my trust in the books ability to cap game totals.

Example: Tonight the Warriors\LAC total opened at 209.5
1H Total: 131 pts scored (way over projected)
2H Total: 107.5 pts scored

For the 2H under to lose, a total of 239 pts would have to be scored in the game.

That would be 30 points *over* the original projection of 209.5 for GAME total set by Vegas.

30\209.5 = 14.3% more points scored than Vegas first anticipated. The game finished at 234 points scored, 5 points under a loss - not exactly a slam dunk, hell, had the game been closer we likely would have lost but I think there's at least something to look at here.

I won't be able to get on the computer and do the math for all plays, but if anyone wants to jump in here and indicate that we have a play, I will be checking in this thread and playing every situation small. I should be able to get in here and do the math on a bunch of them, but a little help would appreciate if anyone wants to play along.

Again, all I'm doing here is saying that Vegas isn't that far off on setting their game totals - I believe the books are good at what they do. Teams shoot lights out in the 1H all the time, and then slow it down\shoot poorly in the 2H. On the contrary, teams play like garbage in the 1H, and then really pour it on in the second half scoring lots of points.

May be personal bias, but I personally like making the play for SECOND HALF UNDER (i.e a very high scoring first half) than I do the other way around....but I'll be playing it either way as long as the 2H total puts the original game total up or down by 11% or more.

I've done this in the past, and I've had some good success doing it, though I didn't track the results. Anyone have data on it? Of course, when playing 2H UNDERS you run the risk of OT completely ******* you, but... as they say, that's why they call it gamblin!

[ShowMeDaMoney]

We could even look a bit closer at games in which teams are playing a b2b, their lack of on offense may be a wash because of weaker defense...but it's worth a look. I'll be playing these tomorrow. Hope some of you joined in tonight....


1-0, +2.0 units on GS\LAC Under 107.5 pts scored (posted in different thread) Plays will go here from now on.

[Eating Bookies]

I experimented with this but I didn't how to go about it. You shed the light. Keep up the work.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

feel free to play along Bookies, it definitely would help to have a few of us running the #'s at the half. It should be easy to see at a quick glance, but even still, I won't be able to do them all every night.

Haven't decided what triggers a 2 unit play... but for the next few weeks I will be playing at least 1 unit for 2H totals assuming the criteria is met. Good luck guys!

[ShowMeDaMoney]

got the numbers ready for tomorrow to indicate the books are offering a 2H total that would be +\-12% the game total set originally. Hopefully I get enough time to go through the numbers at half time and figure out which are plays.

I'm guessing you'd need the first half total to go over or under by 10%+ for the 2H play to work. In any case, I'll let you guys know if I find any plays.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

potential play coming up with Kings\Detroit. Lots and lots of scoring in the 1H. We'll see what Vegas does for 2H

[ShowMeDaMoney]

Kings\Detroit Under 99 Pts Scored 2H One Unit

[ShowMeDaMoney]

Lookin good here, gonna take an enormous amount of scoring for us to lose this one in the 4th.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

Kings\Detroit Under 99 Pts Scored 2H One Unit

Winner +1.0 Units Won by one by a full 12 points despite the game being close in the end.

Looking at a potential play in the Denver\Cleve game....keep ya posted.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

no play on Denver\Cleveland.

we're 2-0 so far in this system....

[Eating Bookies]

Damn I was out all day and missed out on the Kings game. Oh btw, I made a spreadsheet and started tracking. If you want it, let me know.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

Do you have past results?

Are you running all games or just inputting data when we have a +\- 12% difference in game total and 1H scoring\2H projected total?

My girlfriend gets tired of me constantly on the computer and phone looking at sports scores. It'd help a shit load if we found a way to make this easier than it currently is.

What I am currently doing it is adding the .12% to the game total and subtracting .12% from game total the night prior, and then checking in around half time to see if we land on a # we like. Seems to me the 1H total has to go over or under by about 20% for it to be even close to a 2H play.

The numbers look something like this...
+12% -12%
Dallas\Memphis 215.04 168.98

This works fine. I could definitely use some help doing the numbers because I can't always get to it. The easiest way I've found, and I'm open to other ways, just bring up scoresandodds.com - they display real time scores for all games, right next to the projected game total...makes it easy.

I don't see more than one play a night happening, if that... but we shall see. Glad you're joining in bookies. You can just favorite place this thread and check in a few times during the day. It's a short window when you can place your play, but alot of games tend to go into Half Time at the same time.

[Romanov]

Excited. Tailing small. Could u post the spreadsheet?

[Masu485]

I have tried this in the past, but with Sides in addition to Totals, since I felt they are based on the same principle.

There is some merit to it, BUT it's best to do with Totals that are near the mean (ex: NBA totals from 190 - 205).