1. 01-13-11 10:08 AM #1
    No coincidences
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    I'd be careful with Denver if LeBron is officially out

    Sounds absurd, but in the NBA, plays hit a high clip when a star is sidelined for the first game. It's a bizarre -- yet consistent -- trend. Has me spooked enough that I'm re-thinking my Denver +4, even though it's now +1 and there's huge RLM.
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  2. 01-13-11 10:13 AM #2
    Regul8er
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    Do you have numbers going back 5 or more years to share NC regarding the consistency of the first game a star is out??

    If not, the word consistent shouldn't be used. Thanks Brother, and goodluck to you.
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  3. 01-13-11 10:17 AM #3
    forloveofthegame
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    usually you know the player is out before the line opening. in this case it means nothing because if this was info before the line opened it would never be 4.
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  4. 01-13-11 10:29 AM #4
    Borat38
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    Was thinking of DEN ML, but the key-player-out angle is too strong to ignore, especially with Melo days away from a trade.
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  5. 01-13-11 10:33 AM #5
    ufcmma36
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    well bol!!!!!
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  6. 01-13-11 10:39 AM #6
    GTS925
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    LeBron ain't a star.
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  7. 01-13-11 10:43 AM #7
    Cuse0323
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    I don't understand the love for Denver here regardless if Lebron plays or not.
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  8. 01-13-11 11:10 AM #8
    Snowball
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    i guess you still believe in RLM, based on the offshore wager percentages.

    i don't. the money has gone on Denver, and the public is on Denver.
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  9. 01-13-11 11:16 AM #9
    og4667
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    Nocoin is right heed his warning you idiots
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  10. 01-13-11 11:21 AM #10
    macoeric
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    Melos head isnt in it anyways
    1 for 1
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  11. 01-13-11 11:23 AM #11
    kingofmonash
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    take the nuggets ,
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  12. 01-13-11 11:28 AM #12
    hedgejob
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cuse0323 View Post
    I don't understand the love for Denver here regardless if Lebron plays or not.
    The love for Denver is because they have a habit of showing up to big games at home (this season they beat Lakers, lost to SAS 1). And considering Heat are on the road, on b2b, were owned for 4 qtrs last night, and no LJ it becomes clear why Denver is the play.
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  13. 01-13-11 11:32 AM #13
    colin fergueson
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    this like that denver vs san atonio game when the spurs were off b2b
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  14. 01-13-11 12:20 PM #14
    xlilsp1keyx
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    just stay away from this game.. with lebron out..and with denver hating melo, who knows what can happen.
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  15. 01-13-11 12:45 PM #15
    BstHcpr
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    They just beat the Suns by 34.
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  16. 01-13-11 12:46 PM #16
    Cuse0323
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    Quote Originally Posted by hedgejob View Post
    The love for Denver is because they have a habit of showing up to big games at home (this season they beat Lakers, lost to SAS 1). And considering Heat are on the road, on b2b, were owned for 4 qtrs last night, and no LJ it becomes clear why Denver is the play.
    We shall see, think everyone is looking too far into this. B2B, on the road, Lebron may be out, just beat by the Clippers. Denver is not a good team, so enjoy putting your money on them.
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  17. 01-13-11 12:51 PM #17
    pronk
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    Quote Originally Posted by GTS925 View Post
    LeBron ain't a star.
    Neither is Fartmello. Both are despicable quitters. I hope this is the last nba season for LeQuit.
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  18. 01-13-11 12:58 PM #18
    stevex
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    Got to love Thursdays in the NBA.
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  19. 01-13-11 12:59 PM #19
    Avon Barksdale
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    Heat will get killed if LeBron isn't playing. Look how their players outside the big three have played recently, they've been scoring like 15-20 PPG.
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  20. 01-13-11 01:46 PM #20
    madrabbit
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    denver wins easily.
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  21. 01-13-11 01:47 PM #21
    telespectatorul
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    consider this: denver bench vs miami bench. there is your winner.
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  22. 01-13-11 01:49 PM #22
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by Avon Barksdale View Post
    Heat will get killed if LeBron isn't playing. Look how their players outside the big three have played recently, they've been scoring like 15-20 PPG.
    This theory isn't about making sense with what's on paper.

    Teams step up without their star in the first game. Just like you fade teams when a star comes back in his first game. I wish someone would track this, because in the NBA, it's typically golden.
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  23. 01-13-11 01:52 PM #23
    forloveofthegame
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    Quote Originally Posted by telespectatorul View Post
    consider this: denver bench vs miami bench. there is your winner.


    wade and bosh cant play the whole game. this is one of the biggest lopsided 2nd unit matchups there could be. expect ty and jr eff to be +15++
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  24. 01-13-11 01:53 PM #24
    demens
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    I bet you there is no such thing as a star player out angle. People always throw things like that around with zero to back it up. They heard someone say it once, then they saw 1 game where a team somehow covered without a star, shockingly those games stick in your memory so the theory is 100% proven.

    Noone really remembers the games where a team without its star gets blown out of the building. Thats what should happen, no shock value, no surprise, noone cares, everyone forgets.

    Now i dont know if there is such an angle or not, and how many times these teams without stars cover or dont. But i am 100% sure that 99% that say "missing star angle" have nothing to back that up other then hearing it somewhere and seeing "a few" games where it happened.
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  25. 01-13-11 01:55 PM #25
    demens
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    This theory isn't about making sense with what's on paper.

    Teams step up without their star in the first game. Just like you fade teams when a star comes back in his first game. I wish someone would track this, because in the NBA, it's typically golden.

    Exactly, noone tracks it. Typically golden is not an angle of any value imo. Whats typically, is it 80%, is it 60% is it 53%. Bottom line, noone knows cause noone tracks it.
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  26. 01-13-11 01:55 PM #26
    Snowball
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    might be a good idea to wait until 2h
    see how these bozos play first..
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  27. 01-13-11 01:58 PM #27
    No coincidences
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowball View Post
    might be a good idea to wait until 2h
    see how these bozos play first..
    With or without LeBron, I think Miami's up at half then runs out of gas 2H. Teams on this kind of road trip very rarely hold up well in this spot in Denver 2H.
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  28. 01-13-11 02:41 PM #28
    betforbread
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    Can somebody tell me what does RLM mean? Thanks.
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  29. 01-13-11 02:50 PM #29
    tatddy
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    With or without LeBron, I think Miami's up at half then runs out of gas 2H. Teams on this kind of road trip very rarely hold up well in this spot in Denver 2H.
    Except when everyone lost big with the Bucks not only covered 15 but beat Denver straight up on a B2B in Denver last year.
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  30. 01-13-11 02:54 PM #30
    orangeheaven
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    Heat will win, everyone is on denver. Watch 'melo throw the game away.
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  31. 01-13-11 02:59 PM #31
    todd24kb
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    Quote Originally Posted by orangeheaven View Post
    Heat will win, everyone is on denver. Watch 'melo throw the game away.
    I wouldn't be surprised if the Heat wins. And your'e right, I really think it's going to depend on Melo if he wants to show up or not. Just too risky to bet this game knowing this fact and the fact that Lebron is probably going to be out.
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  32. 01-13-11 03:01 PM #32
    tatddy
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    You guys and Melo. It's not about Melo. He'll be fine but winning doesn't come down to him. Did you even watch the last Denver game? It's all about JR Smith, Afflalo, and the Denver bench.
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  33. 01-13-11 03:08 PM #33
    Sawyer
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    Team missing important player usually covers. Strange but true, lol.
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  34. 01-13-11 03:20 PM #34
    Tennispro
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    Damn all these useless postes about ohh Miami might win this and that, you have the best bet for today even if Miami wins you were on the right side, pick bets like this whole season long and see your bankroll go up, and i dont know what everyone is talking about but 66% of the public is on Miami and the public wil always be on Miami if you dont know this by now plz stop betting on the nba.... And the star rule often occurs with teams that have a deep bench and Miami has no bench at all so think about that, oke i am done here dont know why i even bother..
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  35. 01-13-11 03:24 PM #35
    tatddy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tennispro View Post
    Damn all these useless postes about ohh Miami might win this and that, you have the best bet for today even if Miami wins you were on the right side, pick bets like this whole season long and see your bankroll go up, and i dont know what everyone is talking about but 66% of the public is on Miami and the public wil always be on Miami if you dont know this by now plz stop betting on the nba.... And the star rule often occurs with teams that have a deep bench and Miami has no bench at all so think about that, oke i am done here dont know why i even bother..
    I tried to read this incoherent rambling run on sentence but my head started to hurt. Please re post in English.
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