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Seymour's Official NBA Thread!!!
OK folks, I've been studying the NBA over the past few months or so to see how it's all been playing out and now feel confident to open a new thread to post my plays. I had a previous thread that was experimental but I went 22-24. Not to worry though, I've learnt where I went wrong and have become more disciplined with my picks now (used to have far too many a night).
Anyhoo, feel free to tail and comment if you want
Let's make some
Cheers mlb! Look out for plays soon!Might not have one tonight as there's only 2 games and they look quite close at first glance
I have one pick tonight to start off this new thread. Let's hope it starts with a win!
Pick: Denver Nuggets @ Sacramento Kings OVER 207
Writeup
Tonight's matchup see's two of the worst NBA defences go head to head. On the road anyway, Denver are ranked 22nd best in the NBA for defence whereas Sacramento's home defence is the 20th best. Also, with the Nuggets coming off a loss to the Clippers last night, I expect them to be more than up for this game. Denver are the 2nd highest scoring team in the NBA with 106.3 ppg on average and are the 5th highest scoring when on the road. I easily could see Denver scoring 110+. As for the Kings they are only averaging 94.6ppg. However, Denver have the tendency to dominate weaker opponents and will come out the blocks quickly. I think the game will be very high paced, giving Sacramento the chance to exchange buckets with Denver in an end to end game.
I have also found these interesting trends that have helped influence my decision:
Play ‘over’ with home teams that are winning 25% or fewer of their games on the season where the total is greater than or equal to 200 and is revenging a same season loss to tonight’s opponent and with that opponent posting a winning record on the season. This is a proven money making system producing a 48-20 record for 71% winners since 2005
Sacramento Kings have a history hitting the ‘over’
The Sacramento Kings have done a solid job defending their glass and minimizing second chance scoring opportunities in recent games, but that performance level is just not sustainable. Note that the Kings are 82-47 OVER after two straight games giving up 10 or less offensive rebounds since 1996. The fact that there is a strong propensity for the ‘over’ after two solid games of defensive rebounding combined with Denver’s athleticism will provide for more scoring opportunities.
Long write up I know, but with the line shifting downwards 2 to 3 points since it's release earlier today, I think there is good value in this bet.
Good luck
Last edited by Chris8989; 01-06-11 at 01:07 PM. Reason: Spelling Correction
Great start last night as the Nuggets/Kings game goes over by 17 at 224!Originally Posted by Chris8989
Having a look at tonight's card now, will post up soon if I see anything I like
NBA record: 1-0-0 (+0.92 units)
Pick: Miami Heat -7 @ Milwaukee Bucks (1.5 units)
Writeup
Miami are on a roll at the moment and I cannot see that stopping in their match at Milwaukee tonight. Statswise, everything points to the Heat, especially with the generous line given here. Away from home, Miami are 12-6 ATS whereas at home, Milwaukee are 6-8-1 ATS. The Bucks will also be without their top scorer Brandon Jennings, alongside other injuries. Heat have been covering well on the road this season with a 10-1 ATS record, managing to blowout the Bobcats in their last road encounter by 14 with a line of -9.
The Bucks are statistically the worst offensive team in the league, averaging just 90.5 ppg. Understandably they also have the worst field goal percentage in the league with 41.2. Conversely Miami are the 3rd best for field goals at a percentage of 47.5. They also give up the second lowest amount of free throws in the league so I expect the Bucks will heavily rely on being able to convert their field goals to get anywhere near the Heat tonight.
Cheers and good luck!
Last edited by Chris8989; 01-07-11 at 11:39 AM. Reason: Amount of units stated
What are your thoughts on my pick tonight? Agree/Disagree?
I agree Chis , I`m with you , let`s roll , BOL
Cheers
good luck tonight mate!
Tough break tonightyou win some and you lose some I suppose. I still think it was the right play to make but that's the way it goes. Ill be back with another pick or two tomorrow!
NBA record: 1-1-0 (-0.42 Units)
Last edited by Chris8989; 01-08-11 at 09:56 AM. Reason: Unit Adjustment
Pick: Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks -7
Writeup
This one's pretty straight forward for me. After coming off a loss to the Spurs last night, Indiana will be wondering how they lost the game after dominating the first half. However on a b2b against a strong home team like Atlanta, I think they will struggle to cover the spread tonight.
Here are a few trends which have helped me make this pick:
Indiana is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Indiana is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Indiana is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
Indiana has the third worst field goal percentage in the league at 43.3.
Atlanta leads the league in three points made allowed with 5.3 per game.
Sorry it's a short writeup but I'm in a hurry so I hope the trends are enough to back up my decision. I might add another pick later on!
Cheers and good luck
Pick: Milwaukee Bucks +0.5 1H @ New Jersey Nets
Writeup
With both teams having played last night, home advantage could be a factor in the outcome of this match but if that's the case, I expect it to be in the 2nd half. Milwaukee will have a lot more belief going into this game after taking Miami into overtime last night and in the last 5 meetings between these teams (home and away), the Bucks have triumped in every single one, blowing out the Nets by at least 14 each time, in the most extreme case, the Bucks won by 29!
Great start to the night as Milwaukee win the half 55-45!
NBA record: 2-1-0 (+0.34 units)
Atlanta win by 15!great night tonight as I go 2-0
NBA record: 3-1-0 (+1.26 units)
Pick: New York Knicks @ Los Angeles Lakers OVER 211
Writeup
These are both high scoring teams that slack a bit on the defence so I expect a high scoring game close to the posted total tonight. I'm leaning to the OVER though as New York are the highest scoring team in the league with a bad defence so it should be an end to end encounter, with both teams scoring buckets for fun.
Here are some trends that influenced this pick:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New York's last 5 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New York's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
The Knicks are scoring freely at the moment as the highest scoring team in the league. Also, they are the highest scoring road team too. The Lakers though have the 16th best home defence so I can see New York keeping up its high scoring record here. Also, Los Angeles are the 6th highest scoring team in the league and 9th highest at home and with the Knicks having the 28th best overall defence and the 22nd best on the road, both teams should score over 100 points each easily.
A lot of stats but its what I've based my decision on
Cheers matetough break for you last night
Pick: Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers -2 1H
Writeup
The Clippers are one of the best first half teams at the moment, leading in every one of their last 5 matches at half time. Also, they have had 4 days rest before this game whereas Golden State have only had 2. Both teams have been averaging over 100 points each in the last 5 games and allowing over 100 so I expect a high tempo, high scoring game. I have no leans as to who will win but the way the Clippers start out, and especially at home, I think there's good value in backing them to win the first half here even with a -2 handicap.
Cheers and good luck
Last edited by Chris8989; 01-09-11 at 10:09 AM.
Ive got quite a few for today. I like:
Clippers -3.5
Knicks +6.5 (pick of the day)
Packers/Eagles total over 46.5
Heat/Blazers under 185
Atlanta Thrashers to win Vs Carolina Hurricanes (NHL)
Pick: New Orleans Hornets @ Denver Nuggets UNDER 201.5
Writeup
New Orleans have struggled to score as of late and their season averages has them ranked 27th in the league for overall scoring and the same rank for their scoring on the road. However they have the 3rd best road defence in the league so I can't see as many points being scored as the posted total may assume. It should be noted that Denver are ranked 1st in the league for home scoring with an average of 109.1! Even if Denver get close to this score against the Hornets, I can't see the Hornets scoring many more than 90 as in their last five games they have averaged 91.8 points. So in a worse case scenario, the total could be 201 so it is a tight call. I just think with New Orleans road defence and a few trends, this should be a lower total than the books think it will be.
7 of the last 8 meetings between these two have gone UNDER the posted total.
New Orleans are 4-14 OU on the road this season
Just a summary to recap today's plays:
New York Knicks @ Los Angeles Lakers OVER 211
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers -2 1H
New Orleans Hornets @ Denver Nuggets UNDER 201.5
Good luck!
NBA record: 3-1-0 (+1.26 units)
Yeah, couldn't believe how the Saints game played out.. but that's the beauty of sports upsetsCheers mateBit of a bummer cuz it was a strong play from me and did'nt hit but still looking good with my overall record. Just move on and hopefully have a strong day today. Good luck with your plays.
There are some stats supporting the Lakers/Knicks game going 'under' but I agree with the points you've made for sure. I think the total is pretty accurate so i'm not gonna play it but best of luck with it. Depends whether both teams put in any defensive effort or just settle for an offensive shootout.
Clippers play looks good though, i've got them for the full game. Not looked at hornets/Nuggets game but good luck with them
Cheers mate
That game was mental, saw one of the touchdowns from Seattle where that guy just couldn't be brought down! lol but at least your still in a good profit! Just goes to show that nothings ever guaranteed but if I'd have put money on that game I would have followed your play for sure, guess it's just about gambling what you can afford to lose.
I'm more confident with the Clippers and Nuggets games I've bet on definitely, I think the Knicks/Lakers game will be very tight in terms of how close it will be to the posted total, just hope the Knicks score 120+ again and the Lakers have a good night too.
GL today guys. I'm liking that NY/LAL over as well.
Great start as Clippers dominate the half 62-48!
Clippers smashed the last few mins of that 2nd quarter
I know mate I was worried when they went down but they pulled it out the bag!
Good luck with the rest of the game, hope they cover for you too!
NBA record: 4-1-0, 80% (+2.18 units)
NBA record: 5-1-0, 83% (+3.1 units)
Good job, bro !
NBA record: 5-1-0, 83% (+3.1 units)
I was initially going to go OVER on the Miami/Port game @184, but your pick carried more weight, so I mirrored your bet. Damn shame I lowered by normal bet to less than $100.
If you're ever in the DC area, I'll spot you a couple of beers.
Keep em comin.
Cheers man
Yeah I was more confident on the Denver/New Orleans game, just wish I hadn't bet on the Knicks and Lakers to go OVER lol but never mind still a 2-1 night.
Where abouts you from? I'm in the UK lol its well past my bedtime!
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