[No coincidences]

I haven't checked to see what the numbers have been recently, but it seems like the public has been getting torched by ignoring the first "lull" factor in the NBA season.

This is where travel, B2B's, etc. start to take their toll on these players psychologically more than anything else (they claim physically, but I think it's more of an excuse heading into the holiday season). You've seen some ridiculously low-scoring quarters/games from certain teams who basically throw in the towel and move on to the next game before the horn sounds.

Just keep an eye on early and late line movement. It's not an exact science -- for instance, I ignored it tonight with my DAL/MIL over -- but you have to pick your spots and start paying attention to which teams have played a lot of games and traveled a lot of miles in a short period of time, both side-wise and especially with totals (depending on the general style of the team in the first place).

[lyon804]

I am full speed ahead nocoin. Unfortuntaly I know the participants involved better than my family

[ManBearPig]

I have all the data and it's been pretty interesting...if you blindly tailed the under this past week you hit about 65% of your bets. There are some games in there that could've gone either way based on the line you got as they were within a point or so of each other but there is def a huge under trend right now.

[No coincidences]

I am full speed ahead nocoin. Unfortuntaly I know the participants involved better than my family

[No coincidences]

I have all the data and it's been pretty interesting...if you blindly tailed the under this past week you hit about 65% of your bets. There are some games in there that could've gone either way based on the line you got as they were within a point or so of each other but there is def a huge under trend right now.

That's about what I figured.

Just look for head-scratching numbers -- when the public's hitting a play one way and the line's going in the opposite direction (i.e., RLM), it's typically a good idea to fade the Joes.

For instance, the ORL/DEN total jumped from 204 to 206.5, and early public money's been on the under. We'll see if those trends hold, but it's worth noting both ways (overs and unders).

[chimp]

That's about what I figured.

Just look for head-scratching numbers -- when the public's hitting a play one way and the line's going in the opposite direction (i.e., RLM), it's typically a good idea to fade the Joes.

For instance, the ORL/DEN total jumped from 204 to 206.5, and early public money's been on the under. We'll see if those trends hold, but it's worth noting both ways (overs and unders).

where do you see the public money being on the under?

[No coincidences]

Unders are about to go to 5-1 today.