[lolbear]

Hey fellow cappers, relatively new to sportscapping and was inspired by a number of great cappers. I tail the successful threads in attempts to learn the insights they consider when weighing options. So far I am disappointed but not surprised at my 15-16 record. Without a doubt I am a newbie and am at a learning stage, and am going to open this thread and post plays that I like a lot along with the reasons why. I want to find out what mistakes I am making, or what stats I am ignoring/unaware of, and hopefully I will get some feedback.

My goal is to hit 55-60% with plays that I post. (by no means the only plays that I bet on)

For tomorrow, personally see only 1 play that I like:

Miami @ Cleveland -- Under 192

A few stats:
-Cleveland worst home scoring team in the league, at 91.3
-Miami 24th in the league at scoring on the road, at 93.7
-Miami 4th in the league at road defense, at 93.7
-Cleveland 9th in the league at home defense, at 94.9
-Miami has never given up more than 100 points to a team with losing record this year

Game Dynamics:
Obviously, most anticipated regular season game of the year (maybe ever, for a regular season game), and on National TV. Both teams are looking forward to this game, and I feel that usually leads to better defense than the other way around. Cleveland will definitely try to be physical with the Heat (especially Lebron), and the Heat are capable of shutting down mediocre to poor offensive team, showcased by today's win over Detroit. I think both teams will be focused, and both teams have better defense than offense when they are focused.

I see a grind it out game; Cavs wouldn't want the Heat to run over them at home. Along with the season stats on these two teams, I like the under 192 for 2 units.

[lolbear]

Miami @ Cleveland -- Under 192

A few stats:
-Cleveland worst home scoring team in the league, at 91.3
-Miami 24th in the league at scoring on the road, at 93.7
-Miami 4th in the league at road defense, at 93.7
-Cleveland 9th in the league at home defense, at 94.9
-Miami has never given up more than 100 points to a team with losing record this year

Game Dynamics:
Obviously, most anticipated regular season game of the year (maybe ever, for a regular season game), and on National TV. Both teams are looking forward to this game, and I feel that usually leads to better defense than the other way around. Cleveland will definitely try to be physical with the Heat (especially Lebron), and the Heat are capable of shutting down mediocre to poor offensive team, showcased by today's win over Detroit. I think both teams will be focused, and both teams have better defense than offense when they are focused.

I see a grind it out game; Cavs wouldn't want the Heat to run over them at home. Along with the season stats on these two teams, I like the under 192 for 2 units.

This game was so frustrating to watch, as it left me the Cavs fan brought out what was expected out of them, and in return Cavs bricked hard. They should've known well that this is the game of the year for them and the fans, and unlike failing in the playoffs where after a meltdown you are given several months for the fans for forget and forgive, this is in the middle of season and they have a lot to lose. They came out flat and joked around with Lebron, with no effort whatsoever after first several minutes. It was also funny they tried a fast paced offense. They did not stick to what they have to win. On the other hand, Lebron james's shot selection was consistant with shots he's taking this season-- absolutely horrible 20 foot jumpers. Miraclously everything dropped.

But a rookie is a rookie I guess there are more signs I did not notice about the game. 0-1 -2u to start. Had about 7 leans last night and won 5 units on them, hope for the momentum to continue with this play:

Dallas -7.5 @ Sacramento
I hate going against public, but Dallas are amazing on the road ATS this year. For whatever reason they are much better on the road. Against weak teams, they have done their job taking care of those games. Sacramento, on the other hand, is at rockbottom right now. Tyreke's nagging injuries might have him less effective than projected to be after a monster rookie campaign. The team looks okay on paper, but just doesn't haev what it got. Carl Landry moving to the bench hasn't helped the cause, and the four wins they got this year are all against other bottom dwellers.

Both teams playing back to back, and Sacramento just doesn't have much to play for at this point. Dallas's amazing road record is going to carry on with this game. A blowout should be in session. There are no injuries reported.

Dallas -7.5 2u

[lolbear]

Two posted plays two losses. Lesson learned for the Mavs game: Public plays don't necessarily mean no play, but should be a bit wary. How one of the worst team suddenly lights it up against the mavs is still a headscratcher.

FWIW maybe I can tell my friends to fade everything I post. For today...

Nuggets @ Celtics 1Q Under 51.5

Prefer not to do Q's and H's but this play I really like. Celtics #1 in the league with Orlando at 1Q defense at 21.2, and the stat is even better at home at 20.3. Denver on the road surprisingly are 3rd in the league at 1Q D, at 23.2. Both teams aren't exactly excellent scoring teams, and 1Q provide no exceptions. Both teams are banged up and the Celtics have a bunch of questionables and Melo admitted yesterday he is still affected by the cold. Denver also just had to play a tight game in Charlotte last night, and can very well come out extremely flat in 1Q.

On the other hand, there are motivation for the Nuggets as they are playing for Karl's 1000th win, but the same can be said about last night but look what happened. Line itself is at 203 which to me seems a bit high and got me a tiny bit wary. But numbers don't lie and 51.5 just seems too high.

Nuggets @ Celtics 1Q Under 51.5 for 2 Units

YTD 0-2-0 -4.2u