I have this NBA's season score data of each quarter and wondered what are the chances of going over/under based on the pace of the game, which is calculated:
Total score so far * (4 / quarters played)
I don't know about others, but I always check the pace of the game to see how my over/under pick is doing. So here is the data:
After 1st quarter
==============
If the pace is OVER, the over record is 333-158 (67.8%)
If the pace is UNDER, the under record is 326-153 (68.1%)
After 2nd quarter
==============
If the pace is OVER, the over record is 369-115 (76.2%)
If the pace is UNDER, the under record is 368-115 (76.2%)
After 3rd quarter
==============
If the pace is OVER, the over record is 391-67 (85.4%)
If the pace is UNDER, the under record is 418-99 (80.6%)
So, the 1st quarter is pretty crucial to the outcome of game's over/under result. The results for over and under are very symmetrical except for the 3rd quarter. Well, that's because about 4% of the games go into overtime. I checked 3rd quarter for games that ended in regulation and for both over and under it came out to be around 84%.