[freeVICK]

We are on the cusp of the biggest Game 6 in NBA conference semifinals history. No less than the future of basketball in Cleveland, New York, Chicago, Miami, Los Angeles and Boston is at stake. This is Betty-White-on-Saturday-Night-Live big.
In fact, I have no doubts I will watch it on the big screen in my living room. And when Tivo tells me it has to change the channel to record "30 Rock" I will accept "Do Not Change the Channel." That's how big.
Naturally, this game has generated a lot of interest amongst the betting public. Everyone is looking for any insight to be gleaned about who will win and, subsequently, where LeBron will end up. If anyone is supposed to know anything, it's the wise guys, right?

Well, initially they kept their hands in their pockets. The game was posted on Wednesday morning. Some of the lines the services and consultants sent out favored the Celtics minus-2. I know that the off-shore book CRIS, a wise guy favorite, opened the game at pick. The Las Vegas Hilton opened the Celtics minus-1. By late Wednesday night, the line there had moved all of zero points. In fact, there wasn't much money at all on the game, let alone sharp money. "Most money will come tomorrow," the Hilton's Jeff Sherman emailed me close to 10 p.m. ET. Three hours later, his colleague Ed Salmons sent me a note that read, "Most of the squares like Boston. I imagine the sharps are waiting to see if they can get Cleveland plus-2."
I asked Teddy Covers his opinion, too, and he got back to me around mid-day east coast time today. "Cavs-Celts Game 6 side is an impossible handicap, IMHO. Either Cleveland wins outright or the Celtics win by double digits -- there's no real middle ground. I know a handful of guys who think the Cavs bounce back; another handful who say 'Stick a fork in 'em; they're done.' I personally bet the Under 196.5, but I've got no wager on the side whatsoever."
I've been hearing from a lot of sharps that, rather than play the side, they were playing the under. When I spoke with Vegas Runner around 3 p.m. today, he said most books he talked to were getting the public on the over and the sharps on the under. He liked the under, because his research showed that most elimination games go that direction.
VR was hanging with RJ Bell of pregame.com when I called. He had been calling around town to get a sense of where the money was going and, according to the nearly half a dozen books he talks to, 53 percent of the money for tonight's game was on Boston. And, by late afternoon, the line had budged a bit, moving from Celtics minus-1 to minus-1.5. That indicated to him and me that a couple of things were happening: (1) Both public and sharp money was coming in on Boston and, (2) with bookmakers inching towards that Celtics minus-2, they weren't afraid of taking bets on Cleveland.
"It's almost like they are looking to take money on Cleveland," RJ told me.
That still won't tell us where LeBron is going. But at least we have a clearer idea of how bettors think his season will end.




per Chad Millman ESPN Insider

[vitalogist]

Nice. I like Millman's work, hate that it's behind the "insider" wall. Under it is for me. BOL to all...

[Sunde91]

The obituary will be off the charts for this game with the number of gamblers buried.

[iceminers26]

good info Vick

I like the under, grabbed it yesterday at 196.5 at BM before the move

[tltaylor89]

I'm on the Cavs

[Old Young]

Thanks for posting Vick....I always miss Millmans work since its "insider"

[jjgold]

Seems everyone is on Boston and that worries me

[paco]

No sharp OR square play on this. Both sides have legitimate reasons and insight.

[yisman]

http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/b...had&id=5186447

VR was hanging with RJ Bell when I called. He had been calling around town to get a sense of where the money was going and, according to the nearly half a dozen books he talks to, 53 percent of the money for tonight's game was on Boston. And, by late afternoon, the line had budged a bit, moving from Celtics minus-1 to minus-1.5. That indicated to him and me that a couple of things were happening: (1) Both public and sharp money was coming in on Boston; and (2) with bookmakers inching toward that Celtics minus-2, they weren't afraid of taking bets on Cleveland.


"It's almost like they are looking to take money on Cleveland," RJ told me.

[vitalogist]

good info Vick

I like the under, grabbed it yesterday at 196.5 at BM before the move

You should grab a middle now, its pretty much 193 everywhere...

[Marginalis]

Cavs

[t-bone]

Nice info vicker