[ackem19]

I'm personally really excited about this game. I know people are thinking "why would anybody care about the Nets @ Pacers?" To be honest, I love watching two teams who have nothing but pride to play for go out and give it all they got. Is it just me or does Danny Granger seem to light it up this time of year (regardless of whether or not his team is in playoff contention)? The Pacers have been turning some heads lately putting up some monster games. IND is averaging 107.4 PPG over their last 10 games and in that span they've gone 8-2 SU and 6-3-1 ATS. That game span included notable wins against Utah, Oklahoma City, and Houston. Now they're at home to face New Jersey whose coming off a high scoring game against Chicago, which resulted in a New Jersey Win (their 12th on the season). A couple of key trends that should factor into this game:

New Jersey is 8-1 ATS as an underdog of 9.5 to 12 points
New Jersey is 14-2 UNDER revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points this season
Indiana is 0-3 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they are a favorite of 9.5 to 12 points
Indiana is 9-2 UNDER when playing a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season.

In a addition to the previous trends, this game also fits a system that is 68-48(59%) this season and 397-275(59%) over the last 5 seasons:
Play UNDER - all teams where the 1st half total is >100, in a game that involves two good FT shooting teams (76%-79%), in a game involving two good ball handling teams (<=14.5 TO's per game).

The public may also be high on the OVER given the recent scores put up by both teams (as I mentioned, IND is avg. 107 PPG over last 10), fading the public in addition to the statistical analysis. The motivation is definitely there for New Jersey to come out and play some defense, considering they allowed 53% FG PCT last time these two teams met. Most teams may be quitting this time of year, however New Jersey still has a lot to play for. After a couple of wins within the last week, the Nets have the opportunity to string together a couple more wins to end the season. The Nets also have the opportunity to avoid a season sweep from the Pacers who have won all 3 meetings both SU and ATS. Of those 3 games, 1 game has gone over, one game has gone under, and one game pushed. Although, nothing conclusive can be made from that, keep in mind that 3 of the last 4 games at Indiana have gone OVER.

As for injuries, there haven’t been any additional injuries to either team. TJ Ford has been out since 3/23/10 and hasn’t exactly been a vital piece to the Pacers during their 8-2 run.

This is shaping up to be a very profitable game and hopefully we all end up on the winning side.
PLAY: NJN/IND 1st Half UNDER 105.5
PLAY: NJN/IND UNDER 208

[mann2chc]

i luv the under even better now... GL!

[Khhhh]

I am with you man. In addition to what you have posted, check stats of the game refs. All of them are on the under side - Bavetta is 19-39, the other two guys are 27-33 and 29-39. Moreover both teams play B2B - they are 7-12 and 6-15 Under for B2B.

Over will be regarded as a freak accident.

[NickS8753]

looks good. thanks so much for the insights!

[kgindy]

I locked mine in at 9.5 too I think its at 11 now. Pacers have been making me mad blowing their lottery chances with all this meaning less winning. They did the same thing last year, but at home they are tough and Nets coming off an OT game will be blown out i think.

[Cornerback]

Thanks for the write up! I don't know about the Nets but I'm booking the UNDER.

[Wilforth]

Very good plays.

[rfr3sh]

pacers + granger rolllll tonight

[Wilforth]

pacers + granger rolllll tonight

Most teams now hardly play to popular expectations.

[ShaolinFury]

nice write up. i cant say i like the Under. These two team got nothing to play for but to win and it might just go OT.leaning Over 210

[mkoren]

Really like the under here. Both b2b, they won't score.

[ackem19]

once again, when the majority of people are on one side, we tend to lose. Sorry folks.