1. 03-01-24 09:15 PM #1
    usma1992
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    Computer Model 15.0... NBA so far has been almost as tough as NFL... picks...

    I thought I was starting a new thread ... with my upgraded model a week ago. Apparently, I just responded to amy old thread.

    My models are back tested with great success... and then I try the algorithms moving forward. The algorithms are very complex but they don't always work. I have two models working NCAAF and NCAAB... I have posted information on both efforts and continue to post NCAAB picks daily. Anyway,... here is my latest effort... giving it 14 days... to see..

    I HAVEN"T GOTTEN NBA TO WORK YET... so I caution you... but I do think I am close to being profitable.

    Dave
    THE TEACH
    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    7:10 PM CLEVELAND 122 DETROIT 107 229 9 221.5 Away Minus F Too Close
    7:10 PM CHARLOTTE 105 PHILADELPHIA 122 227 -11 214.0 Too Close Over U
    7:40 PM GOLDEN STATE 123 TORONTO 114 237 3.5 237.0 Away Minus F Too Close
    10:10 PM MILWAUKEE 120 CHICAGO 112 232 4 221.5 Away Minus F Over U
    Last edited by usma1992; 03-01-24 at 09:28 PM.
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  2. 03-02-24 04:24 AM #2
    usma1992
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    Starting to believe ... I am close... 4-1 yesterday...

    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    3:10 PM ATLANTA 117 BROOKLYN 121 238 -2 220.0 Too Close Over U
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  3. 03-03-24 10:36 AM #3
    usma1992
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    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    7:10 PM INDIANA 129 SAN ANTONIO 114 243 6.5 242.5 Away Minus F Too Close
    7:10 PM NEW YORK 108 CLEVELAND 118 226 -6.5 212.5 Too Close Over U

    Cautiously optimistic... with new tightened algorithms. But ... I still caution you. Went 5-2 yesterday... in College Basketball.

    Dave
    THE TEACH
    Last edited by usma1992; 03-03-24 at 10:50 AM.
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  4. 03-04-24 10:54 AM #4
    usma1992
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    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    7:40 PM MEMPHIS 106 BROOKLYN 119 225 -9.5 206.0 Too Close Over U
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  5. 03-04-24 02:18 PM #5
    usma1992
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    Question for the board if you are out there... After the All Star break... does the NBA end up playing defense. I notice the point totals have dramatically decreased and my projections are way high. I am considering making alterations.

    I am curious... if anyone has found this to be true.

    Thank you in advance...

    Dave
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  6. 03-04-24 06:57 PM #6
    TheGoldenGoose
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    NBA Unders have been killing it lately. Your side picks have been doing extremely well. Keep’m coming !!!
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  7. 03-07-24 10:00 AM #7
    RunBookRun
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    this is awesome man.. great work! keep it up. I am trying same.. every loss.. go back and tinker. If major change in capping, then close trial and begin new. Beginning new trial this evening.
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  8. 03-07-24 12:46 PM #8
    usma1992
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    I decided to change my model from a linear model to a quadratic model. I can't get the consistency I want in the NBA with a linear model. Spent several hours making appropriate adjustments and plan to begin again.

    Here is the pick for tonight...
    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    7:10 PM BROOKLYN 114 DETROIT 111 225 2.5 216.0 Too Close Over F
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  9. 03-07-24 06:03 PM #9
    RunBookRun
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    .. would love to see images of what you're looking at.. I have Nets over the Pistons early in this one.. but would like to know more about how final score is determined. interesting work.
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  10. 03-07-24 07:46 PM #10
    IBetYou
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    Quote Originally Posted by usma1992 View Post
    Question for the board if you are out there... After the All Star break... does the NBA end up playing defense. I notice the point totals have dramatically decreased and my projections are way high. I am considering making alterations.

    I am curious... if anyone has found this to be true.

    Thank you in advance...

    Dave
    Don't think it's anything to do with that. The AS game was ridiculously high scoring and was a major talking point. NBA is all about entertainment and pleasing their tv partners. They want the scoring down and Joe Dumars is making it happen.
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  11. 03-07-24 07:49 PM #11
    IBetYou
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    Just as an aside, if you watch an NBA game and a FIBA game one after the other you'll see a huge difference in the block/ charge call. This is where the NBA have gone soft. Used to be guys like Battier/ Haslem/ Collison being experts at taking charges but it was ultimately deemed not aesthetically pleasing. The dilletante fan doesn't want to see it? Fine, every drive a layup or a drive & kick for a three.
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  12. 03-08-24 07:34 AM #12
    usma1992
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    Time AWAY TEAM PROJ AWAY SCORE HOME TEAM PROJ HOME SCORE TOTAL VEGAS SPREAD VEGAS O/U SPREAD BET O/U BET
    7:40 PM MINNESOTA 109 CLEVELAND 111 220 -1.5 207.5 Too Close Over U
    7:40 PM ORLANDO 111 NEW YORK 110 221 1.5 206.5 Too Close Over U
    8:10 PM ATLANTA 115 MEMPHIS 112 226 3 215.5 Too Close Over U
    10:10 PM MILWAUKEE 118 LA LAKERS 113 231 1 232.0 Away Minus F Too Close
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  13. 03-09-24 12:11 PM #13
    usma1992
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    Trying a new algorithm... I need it to work in the past and the future... NBA is killing me...

    I feel like I am close ... to figuring it out than the results role in and I really I have no clue. Spent 4 hours this morning on it.

    Dave
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  14. 03-09-24 12:45 PM #14
    RunBookRun
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    similar to my process. after losses, I go back and try it out on previous blind matchups where i am not aware of outcome (or don't remember). Waiting for games to test results is tedious if not excruciating. The problem is variables, apparently infinite, sometimes appears impossible to create one size fits all. Difficult to determine which algorithm to employ. I believe 7 in a row successfully proves an algorithm is reliably tested.
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