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NBA-Euroleague 2020/21 picks&numbers
MEM-WAS
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews: neutral( Allen out, Jacskon out / Smith out )
Model: MEM 7 231.1-232.5
Robo number: MEM 3 231-232.5
Final number: MEM 3 231-232.5
Picks:
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/10/2021 Memphis Washington 7.0 232.5 8.4 231.1 232.5 8.4
Real Madrid-Barcelona
Date: 11.03.2021.
Sport: Euroleague
Start time: 21:00
Pick: Real Madrid +2.5 @1.943, under155 @1.869
Bookmaker: Pinncle
Stake: 1 unit
Teamnews: adv Barcelona 0.5 ( Lull out, Fernandez doubt / - )
Model: Barcelona 0.92 148
Robo number: Real Madrid 1 148
Final number: Real Madrid 0 148
Picks: under155 @1.869 ( min price under153 @1.91 ), Real Madrid+2.5 @1.943 ( min price +2 @2.00 )
Comment:
round Date Home Away Tpts Srsp HpredPts ApredPts 29 3/11/2021 Real Madrid Barcelona 148.0 -0.92 73.5 74.4
BRK-BOS
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews:adv BOS 2.5-if Green will play ( Durant out, Green quest, Luwawu quest / Smart prob )
Model: BRK 4.1 233.6-235
Robo number: BRK 5 232.5-234
Final number: BRK 2.5 232.5-234- Green in, BRK 2 232.5-234- Green out
Picks:
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/11/2021 Brooklyn Boston 4.1 235.0 6.0 233.6 235.0 6.0
MIA-ORL
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews: neutral ( Adebayo out, Bradley out / Fournier out, Ennis out, Anthony out, Gordon quest )
Model: MIA 8 208-209.2
Robo number: MIA 7.5 208-209
Final number: MIA 7.5 208-209
Picks:
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/11/2021 Miami Orlando 8.0 209.2 9.7 208.0 209.2 9.7
Valencia-Fenerbahce
Teamnews: adv Valencia 1, total -1( Vives prob / Guduric out, Mahmutoglou out, Perez out )
Model: Valencia 2.21 170
Robo number: Valencia 1.5 170
Final number: Valencia 2.5 169
Picks:
Comment:
round Date Home Away Tpts Srsp HpredPts ApredPts 29 3/12/2021 Valencia Fenerbahce 170.0 2.21 86.1 83.9
MEM-DEN
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews: adv MEM 1 if Green and Millsap will not play( Jackson out / Millsap quest, Green quest, Harris out, Hampton out )
Model: DEN 2.3 221.3-222.6
Robo number: DEN 2.5 221.5-222.5
Final number: DEN 1.5 221.5-222.5- Millsap out, Green out
Picks:
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/12/2021 Memphis Denver -2.3 222.6 -1.3 221.3 222.6 -1.3
ATL-SAC
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews:adv SAC 0.5 ( Hunter out, Dunn out, Reddish out / Whiteside out )
Model: ATL 3.2 241.1-242.5
Robo number: ATL 4.5 241-242.5
Final number: ATL 4 241-242.5
Picks:
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/13/2021 Atlanta Sacramento 3.2 242.5 5.3 241.1 242.5 5.3
DEN-DAL
Schedule: adv DAL 1.5, DEN b2b
Teamnews: adv DAL 0.5- if Doncic and Porzingis will play( Harris out, Green doubt, Nnaji out, Hampton quest / Doncic quest, Porzingis quest )
Model: DEN 4.8 224.1-225.4
Robo number: DEN 2 224-225.5
Final number: DEN 1.5 224-225.5- Doncic in, Porzingis in
Picks:
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/13/2021 Denver Dallas 4.8 225.4 7.0 224.1 225.4 8.5
GSW-UTA
Schedule: neutral, early tip off
Teamnews: ( - / - )
Model: UTA 9.7 229.4-230.7
Robo number: UTA 6 229-230
Final number: UTA 6 227-230
Picks:
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/14/2021 Golden State Utah -9.7 230.7 -7.9 229.4 230.7 -7.9
NOP-LAC
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews:neutral ( Redick out / Beverly out )
Model: LAC 4.2 235.3-236.7
Robo number: LAC 5.5 235.5-236.5
Final number: LAC 5.5 235.5-236.5
Picks:
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/14/2021 New Orleans L.A. Clippers -4.2 236.7 -3.0 235.3 236.7 -3.0
Dallas-LA ClippersDate: 15.03.2021
Sport: NBA
Start time: 02:00
Pick: Dallas+2 @1.925
Bookmaker: Pinncle
Stake: 1 unit
Schedule: adv DAL 1, LAC b2b, blowout
Teamnews: adv DAL 1- if Ibaka will play( Johnson quest / Beverly out, Ibaka quest )
Model: LAC 2 225.8-227.1
Robo number: LAC 0 226.5-227.5
Final number: DAL 1.5 226.5-227.5- Ibaka in, DAL 2.5 226.5-227.5- Ibaka out
PicksAL +2 @1.925 (min price DAL ml @2.05, +1.5 @1.95)
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/15/2021 Dallas L.A. Clippers -2.0 227.1 -0.7 225.8 227.1 -2.2
Golden Tate-LA Lakers
Date: 15.03.2021
Sport: NBA
Start time: 03:30
Pick: LAL-2.5 @1.952
Bookmaker: Pinncle
Stake: 1 unit
Schedule: adv LAL 1.5, GSW b2b
Teamnews:adv GSW 2 ( Gasol out, Davies out, Caruso out / - )
Model: LAL 5.7 218.2-219.5
Robo number: LAL 6 219-220.5
Final number: LAL 4 219-220.5
Picks: LAL-2.5 @1.952 ( min price LAL -3 @1.95)
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/15/2021 Golden State L.A. Lakers -5.7 219.5 -3.8 218.2 219.5 -2.3
Boston-UtahDate: 16.03.2021
Sport: NBA
Start time: 00:30
Pick: BOS+4 @1.952
Bookmaker: Pinncle
Stake: 1 unit
BOS-UTA
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews: neutral ( - / - )
Model: UTA 4.7 227-228.3
Robo number: UTA 2 227-228.5
Final number: UTA 2 227-228.5
Picks:BOS+4 @1.952 ( min price BOS +3.5 @1.95 )
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/16/2021 Boston Utah -4.7 228.3 -3.1 227.0 228.3 -3.1
Memphis-Miami
Date: 17.03.2021
Sport: NBA
Start time: 02:00
Pick: under219 @1.99
Bookmaker: Pinncle
Stake: 1 unit
Schedule: adv MEM 2, MIA b2b, 5in7
Teamnews: adv MEM 0.5( Jackson out / Iguadala out, Bradley out, Harkless out )
Model: MEM 2.4 210-211.2
Robo number: MEM 1 210-211
Final number: MEM 1.5 210-211
Picks:under219 @1.99 (min price under218 @1.91)
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/17/2021 Memphis Miami 2.4 211.2 3.6 210.0 211.2 2.1
Real Madrid-CSKADate: 18.03.2021.
Sport: Euroleague
Start time: 21:00
Pick: under160 @1.943
Bookmaker: Pinncle
Stake: 1 unit
Teamnews: neutral ( Lull out, Fernandez out, Randolph out / Hilliard out, Milutinov out )
Model: Real Madrid 3.32 154.4
Robo number: Real Madrid 3 154.5
Final number: Real Madrid 3 154.5
Picks: under160 @1.943 ( min price under159.5 @1.91)
Comment:
round Date Home Away Tpts Srsp HpredPts ApredPts 30 3/18/2021 Real Madrid CSKA 154.4 3.32 78.9 75.6
POR-NOP
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews:adv POR 0.5 ( Nurkic out, Giles prob / Redick out )
Model: NOP 1.8 239.9-241.3
Robo number: POR 0 240.5-242
Final number: POR 1 240.5-242
Picks:
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/18/2021 Portland New Orleans -1.8 241.3 0.4 239.9 241.3 0.4
Milan-Barcelona
Teamnews:adv Barcelona 1- if Datome will not play ( Delaney out, Datome quest / - )
Model: Barcelona 0.05 152.9
Robo number: Milan 0 153
Final number: Barca 1.5 153- Datome out, Barca 1 153- Datome in
Picks:
Comment:
round Date Home Away Tpts Srsp HpredPts ApredPts 30 3/19/2021 EA7 Milan Barcelona 152.9 -0.05 76.4 76.5
CLE-SAS
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews: adv CLE 2, total -1.5( Love out, Prince out / DeRozan out )
Model:SAS 7.8 212.2-213.5
Robo number: SAS 7 212-213.5
Final number: SAS 5 210.5-212
Picks:
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/19/2021 Cleveland San Antonio -7.8 213.5 -6.1 212.2 213.5 -6.1
DEN-CHI
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews: adv CHI 0.5 ( Morris out, Harris out / Temple out )
Model: DEN 7.4 224-225.3
Robo number: DEN 7.5 224-225.5
Final number: DEN 7 224-225.5
Picks:
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/19/2021 Denver Chicago 7.4 225.3 9.6 224.0 225.3 9.6
DEN-NOP
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews: neutral- if Ball will play( Morris out, Harris out / Ball quest, Redick out )
Model: DEN 7 232.7-234.1
Robo number: DEN 5 232.5-234
Final number: DEN 5 232.5-234- Ball in, DEN 6.5 232.5-234- Ball out
Picks:
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/21/2021 Denver New Orleans 7.0 234.1 8.9 232.7 234.1 8.9
POR-DAL
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews:adv POR 0.5 ( Nurkic out / WCS out, Johnson out )
Model: DAL 2 224.7-226.1
Robo number: DAL 2 226.5-228
Final number: DAL 1.5 226.5-228
Picks:
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/21/2021 Portland Dallas -2.0 226.1 -0.3 224.7 226.1 -0.3
MIL-IND
Schedule: adv MIL 2, IND b2b, OT
Teamnews: adv IND 3( Giannis doubt / Sampson out, Warren out )
Model: MIL 7.8 233.9-235.3
Robo number: MIL 9 231.5-233
Final number: MIL 6 231.5-233
Picks:
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/22/2021 Milwaukee Indiana 7.8 235.3 8.9 233.9 235.3 7.4
What do all the abbreviations stand for ?
*CovHc (model suggested fair hcap, assuming empty arena)Originally Posted by asiagambler
*SchTPts (model suggested total points, includes b2b games adjustment)
*SchHc (model suggested hcap in normal circumstances and games with fans)
All 3 numbers(CovHc, SchTPts, SchHc) include b2b adjustment, however heavier schedule where team plays 4th game in 5 days or 5th in 7 days is not covered by model, instead it will always be mentioned in daily notes.
*SugTPts (model raw total points number)
*AdjTpts (model total points number adjusted for part of the season when game is played, specifically calendar month, which is a bit distorted now due to different than usual schedule in current season)
*SugHC (model raw hcap number)
Thanks for asking. See you.
Miami-PhoenixDate: 23.03.2021
Sport: NBA
Start time: 01:00
Pick: under215.5 @1.943
Bookmaker: Pinncle
Stake: 1 unit
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews: adv PHX 1, total -1- if Dragic will not play( Dragic quest, Bradley quest / - )
Model: PHX 5.5 210.3-211.6
Robo number: PHX 2 209.5-210.5
Final number: PHX 2 209.5-210.5 -Dragic in, PHX 3 208.5-209.5- Dragic out
Picks:under215.5 @1.943 ( min prce under215.5 @1.90 )
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/23/2021 Miami Phoenix -5.5 211.6 -3.7 210.3 211.6 -3.7
MIL-BOS
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews: neutral- if Gainnis and Forbes will play( Giannis quest, Forbes quest, Tucker prob / Thompson out )
Model: MIL 6.9 228.7-230
Robo number: MIL 6.5 228-229.5
Final number: MIL 6.5 228-229.5- Giannis in, Forbes in
Picks:
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/24/2021 Milwaukee Boston 6.9 230.0 8.4 228.7 230.0 8.4
Zalgiris-Maccabi
Date: 25.03.2021.
Sport: Euroleague
Start time: 20:00
Pick:under155 @1.99
Bookmaker: Pinnacle
Stake: 1 unit
Teamnews: adv Zalgiris 0.5( Milaknis out, Garino gtd / Hunter out, Zoosman out )
Model: Zalgiris 2.56 148.4
Robo number: Zalgiris 4 148.5
Final number: Zalgiris 4.5 148.5
Picks: under155 @1.99( min price under153.5 @1.91 )
Comment:
round Date Home Away Tpts Srsp HpredPts ApredPts 31 3/25/2021 Zalgiris Maccabi 148.4 2.56 75.5 72.9
MIA-POR
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews: adv POR 0.5, total -1- if Dragic will not play( Dragic quest, Harkless quest, Bradley out, Okpala out / Nurkic out, Little out, Simons out )
Model: MIA 2.5 214.3-215.6
Robo number: MIA 3 214-215
Final number: MIA 2.5 213-214- Dragic out, MIA 3.5 214-215- Dragic in
Picks:
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/25/2021 Miami Portland 2.8 215.6 4.5 214.3 215.6 4.5
Baskonia-MilanoTeamnews: neutral( Jekiri out / Delaney out, Evans out )
Model: Baskonia 4.16 152.1
Robo number: Baskonia 2 152
Final number: Baskonia 2 152
Picks:
Comment:
round Date Home Away Tpts Srsp HpredPts ApredPts 31 3/26/2021 Baskonia EA7 Milan 152.1 4.16 78.1 74.0
CHA-MIA
Schedule: adv CHA 1.5, MIA b2b
Teamnews: neutral- if Butler and Draigic will play( Ball out / Dragic quest, Butler quest, Oladipo out, Bjelica out)
Model: CHA 1.8 211.8213
Robo number: MIA 2 213-214.5
Final number: MIA 2 213-214.5- Butler in, Dragic in
Picks:
Comment:
MIA trade: Oladipo in, Bjelica in - Olynyk out, Bradley out, Harkless out, Silva out
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/26/2021 Charlotte Miami 1.8 213.0 3.8 211.8 213.0 2.3
MIL-NYK
Schedule:adv NYK 1.5, MIL b2b
Teamnews: adv MIL 0.5- if Tucker, Bullock and Noel will play( Portis quest, Tucker quest / Bullock quest, Noel quest, Rose out )
Model: MIL 6.2 221.1-222.4
Robo number: MIL 8 219-220.5
Final number: MIL 8.5 219-220.5- Tucker in, Bullock in, Noel in
Picks:
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/27/2021 Milwaukee New York 6.2 222.4 7.6 221.1 222.4 9.1
SAS-CHI
Schedule:neutral
Teamnews: neutral ( Walker IV out / LaVine prob, Theis out )
Model: SAS 0.4 219.1-220.4
Robo number: SAS 1.5 217-218.5
Final number: SAS 1.5 217-218.5
Picks:
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/27/2021 San Antonio Chicago 0.4 220.4 2.2 219.1 220.4 2.2
CHA-PHX
Schedule: neutral, early tip off
Teamnews:adv PHX 1.5, total -1 ( Ball out / Nader out )
Model: PHX 5.9 222.5-223.8
Robo number: PHX 4 222.5-224
Final number: PHX 5.5 219.5-223
Picks:
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/28/2021 Charlotte Phoenix -5.9 223.8 -4.1 222.5 223.8 -4.1
San Antonio-SacramentoDate: 29.03.2021
Sport: NBA
Start time: 02:30
Pick: SAS-2.5 @1.97
Bookmaker: Pinncle
Stake: 1 unit
SAS-SAC
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews: neutral( Walker IV out / Whiteside quest, Bagley out )
Model: SAS 1.7 226.4-227.7
Robo number: SAS 4 226.5-227.5
Final number: SAS 4 226.5-227.5
Picks:SAS-2.5 @1.97 (min price -2.5 @1.90)
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/29/2021 San Antonio Sacramento 1.7 227.7 2.9 226.4 227.7 2.9
Why are Spurs -2.5 a pick if model only has them 2.9 ?
Doesn't seem like much of a differential
Also, I think fans are limited to some small amount so not even a full home court advantage ?
Real Madrid-Anadolu EfesDate: 30.03.2021.
Sport: Euroleague
Start time: 19:00
Pick: Anadolu Efes-3.5 @1.90, under162.5 @1.925
Bookmaker: Pinnacle
Stake: 1 unit
Teamnews: adv Efes 0.5 (Lull out, Randolph out, Fernandez quest / - )
Model: Anadolu Efes 6.36 155.3
Robo number: Anadolu Efes 4.5 155.5
Final number: Anadolu Efes 5 155.5
Picks: Anadolu Efes-3.5 @1.90 (min price Anadolu Efes-4 @1.95), under162.5 @1.925( min price under160.5 @1.91)
Comment:
round Date Home Away Tpts Srsp HpredPts ApredPts 32 3/30/2021 Real Madrid Anadolu Efes 155.3 -6.36 74.5 80.9 Date: 30.03.2021.
Zenit-CSKA
Sport: Euroleague
Start time: 19:00
Pick: Zenit +1.5 @1.943
Bookmaker: Pinnacle
Stake: 1 unit
Teamnews: adv Zenit 1.5, total -2( - / James out, Bolomboy out, Milutinov out )
Model: Zenit 1.01 157.6
Robo number: Zenit 0 157.5
Final number: Zenit 2 155.5
Picks: Zenit +1.5 @1.943( min price Zenit ml @2.00, +1.5 @1.90 )
Comment:
round Date Home Away Tpts Srsp HpredPts ApredPts 32 3/30/2021 Zenit CSKA 157.6 1.01 79.3 78.3
Hi,
Model know nothing about team news, injuries, suspensions, motivation, dressing room problems, coaching change, congested schedule, transfers, etc. Model only knows past results, past data, all model predictions are based on actual past numbers.Specifically for this game. The Kings have had an easier schedule in the last 4 games. 2xCavs, GSW (without Curry and Green) and Hawks.
In this case the model overrated the Kings.
See you.
WAS-CHA
Schedule: adv CHA 1.5, WAS b2b
Teamnews: adv WAS 1- if Beal will play(Beal quest, Gaford doubt, Bertans out, Smith out / Monk prob, Ball out )
Model: CHA 3.1 233-234.3
Robo number: CHA 1 232-233.5
Final number: WAS 1 232-233.5- Beal in, CHA 3 229-230.5- Beal out
Picks:
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/30/2021 Washington Charlotte -3.1 234.3 -1.8 233.0 234.3 -0.3
IND-MIA
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews: neutral- f Lamb, McDermott and Nunn will play( Lamb quest, McDermott quest / Nunn quest, Oladipo out )
Model: IND 1.7 216.5-217.8
Robo number: MIA 2 216.5-218
Final number: MIA 2 216.5-218- Lamb in, McDermott in, Nunn in
Picks:
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 3/31/2021 Indiana Miami 1.7 217.8 3.7 216.5 217.8 3.7
Baskonia-Anadolu EfesTeamnews: adv Efes 0.5 ( Jekiri out / - )
Model: Anadolu Efes 4.08 160.6
Robo number: Anadolu Efes 4.5 160.5
Final number: Anadolu Efes 5 160.5
Picks:
Comment:
round Date Home Away Tpts Srsp HpredPts ApredPts 33 4/1/2021 Baskonia Anadolu Efes 160.6 -4.08 78.3 82.4
MIA-GSW
Schedule: adv GSW 1.5, MIA b2b
Teamnews:neutral ( Oladipo prob, Nunn quest / Paschall out )
Model: MIA 1.6 214.7-215.7
Robo number: MIA 2.5 212.5-213.5
Final number: MIA 2.5 212.5-213.5
Picks:
Comment:
Date Team H Team A CovHc SchTPts SchHC SugTPts adjTPts SugHC 4/1/2021 Miami Golden State 1.6 215.7 3.0 214.7 215.7 4.5
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