Play #4 Twolves +1450 (.5x)
This will be my first loss.
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03-03-10 06:23 PM #71
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03-03-10 06:31 PM #72
I want my first ML loss too but its not on my bookie line
Originally Posted by lakerboy
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03-03-10 06:41 PM #73
I like Wash at 480+
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03-03-10 06:45 PM #74
Laying big wood on huge favorites is kind of like selling deep out of the money naked options. It's basically free money lying on floor waiting to be picked up.
You can go months and months without a loss and then one day things go against you and you can lose your house. (This happened to a friend of mine.)
It's easy as pie until you lose a couple, and then you have to win a whole bunch just to get back to where you were.
It's also similar to playing even money shots at the horses. You're much better off playing 7-1 shots. Hitting one 7-1 shot is the equivalent of winning seven even money plays--and easier to do.
It can be done, and good luck to all who take a shot at it, but I'll tell you one thing I know for a fact...big upsets happen, and the books love these kinds of bets.Last edited by TGoat; 03-04-10 at 01:27 AM.
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03-03-10 06:46 PM #75
-300 or -600 are solid to parlay in the NBA I think
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03-03-10 09:05 PM #76
Months and months without a loss and then one day you lose your house?? We aren't betting on -$300,000's here lol Originally Posted by TGoat
People keep posting reasoning why betting on huuuuge favorites is a bad idea. And I totally agree- not worth the risk. But make smart ML bets/parlays in the -200 to -800 range and you can be successful. Check my earlier post on the parlay... Hawks stomped, Cavs won easy, Nuggets up by 13... You can reason all you want but the proof is on here. Lakerboy has already won money on here check the stats
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03-03-10 09:40 PM #77
Taking the Minnesota ML was the best. Mavs always screwing around and finding ways to lose against teams they should dominate. At least that's what it seems like when I bet on them.
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03-03-10 09:51 PM #78
I agree laying -1000 plus juice can come back to bite you in the ass, but I have been guilty of doing it before myself. Trying to make up on a bad night with the best chance I could get. I luckily havent got bit, but ive also only done it 2 or 3 times. Now what I do do a little more often is parlaying these -1000 + odds til u can get your overall price down in the -150 -250 range. Yes you may lose more, but I think not losing 10x on a bet is a little easier to handle, and in turn can keep less expiereinced players out of trouble. Because like youve said, upsets happen. Thats why they play the game.
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03-03-10 10:51 PM #79
3-1 so far +3.5 units
Almost had that twolves onePoints Awarded:
PAYTON20 gave lakerboy 5 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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03-03-10 10:52 PM #80
Cant you play ML's by the Half, LB? Pinny?
I would be all over Clipps ML 2ndH
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03-03-10 10:54 PM #81
Originally Posted by HoulihansTX
Yes i can but i am treading very slowly with this project. Only spot plays here and there.
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03-03-10 10:55 PM #82
I know 5Dimes has it. Clips were +155 last I looked. Originally Posted by HoulihansTX
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03-03-10 10:58 PM #83
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03-03-10 11:02 PM #84
Originally Posted by vyomguy
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03-03-10 11:14 PM #85
Almost got the T'Wolves. The likelihood of the Wolves going 2-0 SU in Dallas was always in doubt though. Originally Posted by lakerboy
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03-03-10 11:45 PM #86
s'all good you were only off by 30.... Originally Posted by HoulihansTX
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03-03-10 11:49 PM #87
Proof to all the people who doubt that betting money lines is profitable. This is my ticket summary from yesterday 3/2:
5) BET ID=310208051
Straight Wager03/02/10 23:42 ETbet 70.12 to win 63.75 (paid 133.87) Result: Wager Won2Pacers(Indiana) 2ndHalf 45
2Lakers(LA) 2ndHalf 62 03/03/10(00:40 ET)
2Lakers(LA) -5.5
6) BET ID=310165820 Parlay (4 Teams)03/02/10 16:44 ETbet 58.41 to win 111.71 (paid 170.12) Result: Wager WonIllChicago 67
WisconsinMilw 73 03/02/10(20:00 ET)
WisconsinMilw -750 Illinois 57
OhioSt 73 03/02/10(21:10 ET)
OhioSt -600 Tulane 57
SMississippi 66 03/02/10(20:00 ET)
SMississippi -650 Villanova 77
Cincinnati 73 03/02/10(19:05 ET)
Villanova -3.5
7) BET ID=310152250 Parlay (3 Teams)03/02/10 12:58 ETbet 291.59 to win 150.00 (paid 441.59) Result: Wager WonKings(Sacramento) 107
Thunder(OklahomaCity) 113 03/02/10(20:15 ET)
Thunder(OklahomaCity) -650 Pacers(Indiana) 99
Lakers(LA) 122 03/02/10(22:45 ET)
Lakers(LA) -800 Illinois 57
OhioSt 73 03/02/10(21:10 ET)
OhioSt -600
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03-03-10 11:52 PM #88
I do believe that if you know and understand how to pick the right spots to bet ML it can be very profitable, but you have to be able to show this overtime...just one night of making $ by betting ML's does not prove anything because the difficult part about it is to not bet into the game when the well favored team such as the celtics at home against the nets lose..Obviously u know this, but im just saying that wat u show will not change the mind of anyone who does not belive you can b profitable in the long haul when betting just ML's Originally Posted by PAYTON20
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03-03-10 11:58 PM #89
And then again my ticket from today/tonight. Hope you took my advice on the parlay- it was a good one!
1) BET ID=310242606 Parlay (3 Teams)03/03/10 16:27 ETbet 55.53 to win 95.64 (paid 151.17) Result: Wager Won76ers(Philadelphia) 93
Hawks(Atlanta) 112 03/03/10(19:10 ET)
Hawks(Atlanta) -450 Cavaliers(Cleveland) 111
Nets(NewJersey) 92 03/03/10(19:40 ET)
Cavaliers(Cleveland) -600 Suns(Phoenix) 127
Clippers(LA) 101 03/03/10(22:50 ET)
Suns(Phoenix) -4
2) BET ID=310232836 Parlay (4 Teams)03/03/10 14:20 ETbet 144.47 to win 200.00 (paid 344.47) Result: Wager Won76ers(Philadelphia) 93
Hawks(Atlanta) 112 03/03/10(19:10 ET)
Hawks(Atlanta) -400 Cavaliers(Cleveland) 111
Nets(NewJersey) 92 03/03/10(19:40 ET)
Cavaliers(Cleveland) -550 Pacers(Indiana) 79
Blazers(Portland) 102 03/03/10(22:10 ET)
Blazers(Portland) -475 Thunder(OklahomaCity) 90
Nuggets(Denver) 119 03/03/10(21:10 ET)
Nuggets(Denver) -300
3) BET ID=310211703 Straight Wager03/03/10 01:36 ETbet 300.00 to win 214.29 (paid 514.29) Result: Wager WonSuns(Phoenix) 127
Clippers(LA) 101 03/03/10(22:50 ET)
Suns(Phoenix) -2 (-140) Bought 1.5 point(s)
4) BET ID=310210910 Straight Wager03/03/10 01:00 ETbet 175.46 to win 125.33 (paid 300.79) Result: Wager WonSuns(Phoenix) 127Combined for 3/2 and 3/3:
Clippers(LA) 101 03/03/10(22:50 ET)
Suns(Phoenix) -2 (-140) Bought 1.5 point(s)
7-0, + 9.6 Units
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03-04-10 01:33 AM #90
Very nice payton
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03-04-10 01:35 AM #91
As soon as one of you guys loses a -1000 or -800 moneyline favorite you'll be singing the blues. Now you have to win 8 or 10 in a row to make up for it, or it will wipe out a lot of previous profit.
Like I said, it's free money until things go wrong.
Tread lightly.
No of course you can't lose your house doing this, but you can take a very big hit.
There is no doubt in my mind LB can grind out a profit doing this over time. But it's not for everybody.
About 10-12 years ago I laid $2200 to win $400 that the Trailblazers would win their first round playoff series.
It came down to the last shot in the last game, and I was sweating bullets. I thought this was a dead mortal lock and I barely escaped.
I said never again, and I meant it.
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03-04-10 01:36 AM #92
Now THIS is a good bet! Originally Posted by lakerboy
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03-04-10 01:36 AM #93
Yep, a weeks of hard grinding can be washed away by one loss.
Good luck with it though.
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03-05-10 05:48 PM #94
Play # 5 - Parlay
Lakers ml-160
Magic ml -700
Cavs ml -1200
Hawks ml-2000
Denver ml -800
Raps ml-290
Okc ml-210
Spurs ml-370
1/2 unit to win 2.5 units
Play # 6
Lakers ml -165 to win 2 unitsPoints Awarded:PAYTON20 gave lakerboy 10 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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03-05-10 06:25 PM #95
[quote=lakerboy;3443829]Play # 5 - Parlay
Lakers ml-160
Magic ml -700
Cavs ml -1200
Hawks ml-2000
Denver ml -800
Raps ml-290
Okc ml-210
Spurs ml-370
1/2 unit to win 2.5 units
Loving these ML parlays LB. Glad to see you're on the same page as me for my ML parlay picks. That's a great bet right there!!
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03-05-10 06:33 PM #96
That parlay looks pretty good, Lakerboy. However, the Cavs have started pretty slowly today and the Pistons were shooting quite well in the 1Q. Hopefully the Cavs can turn things around but they really need to pick up their defense and stop turning the ball over so cheaply, if they are to get themselves the win today.
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03-05-10 06:34 PM #97
I took Spurs ML at -400, 2-0 so far and up 2 units. Good project you got going here LB, so far!
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03-05-10 06:46 PM #98
Nice Gopi. Seem to agree with you a lot. Got Spurs in my ML parlay tonight with Magic and Nuggets! Originally Posted by Gopi-1
I took Spurs ML at -400, 2-0 so far and up 2 units. Good project you got going here LB, so far!
Hey Lakerboy, did I read somewhere that you enjoy drinking vodka?
Gettin started on my first glass of Belvedere right now..
to the Cavs picking it up and making a comeback here!
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03-05-10 06:58 PM #99
Originally Posted by PAYTON20
Nice Gopi. Seem to agree with you a lot. Got Spurs in my ML parlay tonight with Magic and Nuggets!
Hey Lakerboy, did I read somewhere that you enjoy drinking vodka?
Gettin started on my first glass of Belvedere right now..
to the Cavs picking it up and making a comeback here!
Yes i like Grey Goose .
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03-05-10 07:04 PM #100
Nice, I like the ML parlay strategy as well. Far less risk than laying -1200 on straight bets on heavy favs, as you can see with the Cavs right now..things like that can ruin you. Parlays, not so much.
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03-05-10 08:49 PM #101
Yayyya get loose haha. I love the Grey Goose too but this Belvedere gift pack was on sale! Right on cue with that Originally Posted by lakerboy
for the Cavs run... but another lousy effort by the Lake show
Got any leans on the OKC -5 or think the OKC ML has value?
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03-05-10 08:57 PM #102
I'm taking OKC ML tonight, Good Luck
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03-05-10 09:03 PM #103
I think OKC moneyline has value but no more moneylines for me tonight. Lakers ruined everything.
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03-05-10 11:45 PM #104
3-3 so far and -.3 units. I can lay -2000 on teams like atlanta tonihgt but im not gonna do that shit. It has to be done the right way.
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03-05-10 11:59 PM #105
Originally Posted by Gopi-1
I took Spurs ML at -400, 2-0 so far and up 2 units. Good project you got going here LB, so far!
3-0 so far, and up 3 units. I know this kind of play can bite me in the ass one of these days, but if I can keep my head straight and pick smartly, I can go on a 50-0 streak before this shit bites back. I usually stay in the range of -300 to -600 for the ML favorites, but if I see a live dog out there, I won't hesitate to pull the trigger as well...
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