Next moves for the Lakers: AD trade priorities and star free agents

ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)



What moves are next for the Los Angeles Lakers?


This team faces big questions heading into the offseason, including its direction at head coach, a potential Anthony Davis trade and free-agent targets.


Let's look ahead to the crucial decisions facing the Lakers this summer, and the best paths forward.



The direction at head coach

We will give general manager Rob Pelinka the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the coaching search. While Luke Walton is certainly a scapegoat for the 2018-19 season, the front office has the right to hire its own coach. As ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported, Walton only had next season guaranteed on his contract. The Lakers had a choice -- either extend Walton or let him go. The one thing the Lakers could not afford to do: enter July 1 with growing instability and a lame-duck coach to pitch to free agents.


Moving forward, the most important decision for the Lakers is not Anthony Davis' plans or what to do with the $35 million in cap space. It's finding the right coach who has the skill set to manage the locker room -- someone with a strong player development background and the ability to adjust to constant roster turnover. The coach also needs to handle constant scrutiny, both inside and outside the organization.


While the Lakers job certainly has appeal because of the resources from ownership, a top-three player in LeBron James, a lottery pick in June and flexibility heading into the summer, there are certainly questions any coaching candidate will need to ask, including:



  1. What are the realistic expectations of the current roster?
  2. Which roster am I coaching?
  3. What are the long-term goals and timetable?
  4. Do I have a role in personnel decisions?
  5. Can I bring in my own staff?
  6. Is there an opportunity to build out the sports science department?

The most pressing question that needs answering is the role in personnel decisions. If a head coach has to prepare for any kind of roster presented by the front office, he or she could end up like Walton.
The timeline with New Orleans and Anthony Davis

As we outlined in February, a blockbuster AD trade before July 1 is not feasiblefor L.A. based on a combination of roster restrictions (15-player limit) and expiring player contracts for the 2018-19 season. While the Lakers could have included Rajon Rondo and Lance Stephenson to make the money work back in February, those players are now off-limits because of their free-agent status.


The window in between the end of the season and the June draft allows the Lakers to develop a strategy, timeline and a set of principles to follow:


Patience in evaluating the roster


Take a deep breath and regroup. There are four reasons to not feel pressure to move right away in trade talks:


1. There is no 3 p.m. deadline.


Unlike when Davis demanded a trade before the deadline, Los Angeles is not on the clock to make a deal that is not on its timeline. The Lakers can take their time leading up to the draft and free agency.


2. The emotional element doesn't (or shouldn't) apply in the offseason.


Midseason trade discussions can be dictated by a knee-jerk reaction to losing three out of four games, a player being injured, standings shifts or role changes. In the offseason, these factors mostly go away.


3. The 2019 draft pick now adds value to a trade package, especially if the pick rises in the lottery.


4. The hiring of David Griffin in New Orleans


Expect the new head of basketball operations to take a conservative approach and weigh all options when it comes to Davis. Griffin will take the next month leading up to the draft combine building out a front office and beginning the early stages of forming a plan for 2019-20.


Dictate the terms of the trade


Despite the Celtics entering the Davis sweepstakes starting July 1 -- and possibly New York based on its fortune in the May lottery -- allowing the Pelicans to dictate the trade talks should be a non-starter.


Gone are the days when the Lakers were forced to take back Solomon Hill as cap relief or required to include every single young player on the roster. The Lakers' trade proposal for AD now should be limited to:



  1. Kyle Kuzma and Lonzo Ball
  2. 2019 lottery pick
  3. 2021 unprotected first-round pick


    Because the Lakers are using cap space as a buffer, their room would be reduced from $36 million to $21 million. Despite the eliminated max slot, the Lakers roster would consist of James, Davis, Josh Hart, Brandon Ingram, Moritz Wagner, Isaac Bonga and $27 million in room to build out the roster in free agency. That cap space would only increase to $30 million if James and Davis are all that's left on the team.


Set a June 30 deadline to agree on a trade


Don't allow the Davis trade talks to disrupt free agency. The one thing the Lakers cannot do is become a bystander in July, waiting for the Pelicans to decide what trade package is to their liking.


If they do, the All-NBA class of free agents will be off the board while the Lakers are sitting in a holding pattern. Even if the trade isn't official until after July 1, the Lakers either should have a deal in place or move on.
The free-agent options

There are four different scenarios for the Lakers when it comes to how they approach cap space this offseason:


AD and the max slot


Here's how L.A. can acquire Davis and also have enough money to sign a player like Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker, Klay Thompson or Kawhi Leonard.




  1. The Lakers would need to renounce all of their free agents.
  2. Use cap space to sign a $32.7 million max player (they would not have enough to sign a player like Kevin Durant and add Davis).
  3. Send what is left of the roster except for LeBron to New Orleans.


Remember that rosters in the offseason expand to 20 players, allowing the Pelicans to take back an unbalanced number. The Lakers would have the $4.7 million room midlevel and minimum exception available to sign 11 players.


While many can make the comparison that this would be similar to when James signed with Miami in 2010, keep in mind that James will be 35 in December. Building a top-heavy roster that features three players who earn $90 million surrounded by minimum players does not give the Lakers a safety net in case of an injury.


The All-NBA player


There was a clear message sent last summer when the Lakers elected to sign free agents to one-year contracts after James committed: Preserve cap space until 2019. But can this team still draw an A-list free agent?


We will learn in early July what type of recruiter James is.


Two-year commitments in free agency


There is a reason why the Pacers stayed competitive after the 2017 Paul Georgetrade and are now a top-four team in the Eastern Conference despite losing Victor Oladipo for the season: They made a two-year investment with their free-agent and trade targets.


Instead of treating the likes of Bojan Bogdanovic and Darren Collison as rentals, Indiana signed both players to multiyear contracts but with a team option for the second season. The contract structure gave Indiana the ability to retain financial flexibility. That same model is what the Lakers should follow if they strike out on their star chase, but they should guarantee the second year of deals.


For example, Los Angeles can split its $35.6 million among the likes of TJ McConnell, Danny Green, Bogdanovic and Dewayne Dedmon -- improving the roster now, keeping flexibility in 2021 and also retaining the young players to use down the road in a potential trade.


The one-year approach (again)


The Lakers could spin future cap flexibility as a reason to pursue one-year deals again. However, there's a significant dip in quality in the 2020 free-agency class.


Davis and Draymond Green are the headliners of the group, along with former Raptors teammates Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan.


Of course, the Lakers can play the waiting game with the goal of signing Davis when he becomes a free agent in 2020, but James will be 36 and entering the year on an expiring contract.
Summer salary-cap and roster breakdown

Lakers' Projected Cap Sheet

PLAYER 2019-20 SALARY
1. LeBron James $37,436,858
2. Lonzo Ball $8,719,320
3. Brandon Ingram $7,265,485
4. Moritz Wagner $2,063,520
5. Kyle Kuzma $1,974,600
6. Josh Hart $1,934,160
7. Isaac Bonga $1,416,852
8. Jemerrio Jones (non-guaranteed) $1,416,852
9. First-rounder (own) (first-round hold) $4,028,400
10. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 1 (free agent hold) $15,600,000
11. Rajon Rondo 2 (free agent hold) $10,800,000
12. Mike Muscala 3 (free agent hold) $9,500,000
13. Lance Stephenson 2 (free agent hold) $5,338,800
14. Reggie Bullock 3 (free agent hold) $4,750,000
15. JaVale McGee 2 (free agent hold) $1,618,486
16. Tyson Chandler 2 (free agent hold) $1,618,486
17. Alex Caruso 4 (free agent hold) $1,618,846
18. Johnathan Williams 5 (free agent hold) $1,443,842
Luol Deng (waiver) $5,000,000
Total $123.4 million
Salary cap $109.0 million
1. Restricted Bird
2. Bird
3. Non-Bird
4. Early Bird
5. Restricted non-Bird
Lakers' Projected Depth Chart

PG SG SF PF C
L. Ball B. Ingram (I) L. James K. Kuzma
J. Hart J. Jones (NG) M. Wagner
I. Bonga
(I)= Injured
(NG)= Non-guaranteed
Resources available to build the roster:



  • The lottery
  • Cash to use in a trade or at the draft
  • $36 million in cap space
  • Room midlevel exception
  • Tradable contracts

Restrictions and dates to watch

• LeBron James has a 15 percent trade kicker in his contract. The bonus is currently valued at $0 because his 2018-19 salary is the maximum allowed. However, because his 2019-20 salary is below $38.15 million, James would receive a $1.4 million bonus if he is traded (highly unlikely).


• The trade to acquire Bonga's draft rights has left the Lakers with $3.7 million cash to use up until June 30.


• Jemerrio Jones cannot be traded until July 1. The Lakers must guarantee his $1.4 million contract for it to have any trade value.


• The Lakers have until June 29 to extend one-year qualifying offers to Alex Caruso and Johnathan Williams. Because Caruso signed a two-year contract, the offer would be for $1.6 million with $80K protected. Caruso has a $1.6 million cap hold and the Lakers would still have a $32.7 million max slot available without renouncing him.
Extension candidates

The decision to enter extension talks with Ingram will come down to several complicating factors.



Do the Lakers consider the former No. 2 pick in 2016 as part of the future, a tradeable asset or both? On the surface, Ingram is worthy of an extension. However, with the recent diagnosis of deep vein thrombosis in his right arm, any extension talk with Ingram will need to be tabled until he's back on the court following surgery.
The draft

The Lakers will enter the lottery at No. 11 -- with a 2.0 percent chance of jumping up to the No. 1 pick, plus a 9.4 percent chance of moving into the top four.


Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz see the Lakers picking in the 2019 draft: