[WillyBoy]

FWIW – This is the time of year that teams start to take steps to preserve the legs of their starters for the long haul. You will see more and more game-time starter scratches, reduced starter minutes, and slack-D play (where underdogs, suddenly unguarded, have a field day beyond the arc), all which throws lines and over/under totals into a last minute tizzy (to say nothing of ruining statistical projections based on past performance). Not quite tanking season, but projected blowouts become closer games, and closing lines can drop 5-10 points in the blink of an eye. When I used to play fantasy, after 50 games in I used the twitter feeds of a couple dozen team watchers – but it takes constant monitoring to stay ahead of changes, and I finally got too old to stay the course and finally called it quits.

Naturally, it gets more difficult to win at Spreads and Over/Under wagering; and, with only about 30 games left for teams to play, bad teams will start to obviously tank, and good teams will, just as obviously, play less robustly (especially on defense) – so the betting atmosphere becomes ever cloudier. Statistical projections – at best – can only reliably give you the straight-up winners, but margins of victory become less and less certain; and only if you stay right on top of specific teams to watch, can you wager successfully using the model’s numbers.

I’ll continue to post until it gets ridiculous, then pick it up again come the playoffs.

GLTA

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

FYI – The Thunder, the 8^th best shooting defense in the NBA and favored by 10 over the Hawks, played no defense in last night’s game, allowing a bad Atlanta team a whopping 62% from the field including 48% shooting beyond the arc, and lost the game by 16! That’s what Slack-D strategy involves; most often on the road, it rests starters while not meaningfully reducing minutes, yet amounts to little more than practice.

I’ve tried nailing down situations where Slack-D is likely to rear its ugly head, and reduce it to numbers, but – aside from the obvious (road-game mismatches like this one) – there’s too much inconsistency among coaches, and takes too much subjective “knowing”, to do so. So, it’s up to the bettor to know good teams from bad, and know the situation relative to the age of the players involved and whether a team is all but locked into a playoff seeding.

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

[IBetYou]

What you describe in that first paragraph is pretty much NBA basketball, period. There's great enthusiasm (from the players, media, fans) the first few weeks and then it's like a day job. And how can it not be? The season is about 7 months long, and then tack on another 2 months for finalists. 3 games per week. As a bettor I find it difficult to stay engaged month after month so I can understand the player point of view.

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

What you describe in that first paragraph is pretty much NBA basketball, period. There's great enthusiasm (from the players, media, fans) the first few weeks and then it's like a day job. And how can it not be? The season is about 7 months long, and then tack on another 2 months for finalists. 3 games per week. As a bettor I find it difficult to stay engaged month after month so I can understand the player point of view.

As a HUGE fan of the NBA, I think I agree – but after watching numbers and coaching tendencies for more than 50 years (age alert), it’s the “day job” statistics which are precisely those which begin to go whacky at the mid-point of the season. As a bettor, after losing money nearly every year on the NFL, I make enough betting the NBA – and those “day job” numbers (from early December to about mid-February) – to have a whole new bankroll to lose on the next NFL season. Barring injuries, those “day job” numbers become viable once more come the playoffs, but in February and March, forget about it.

Be interesting to see the Thunder v Knicks today, and how Donovan handles his starters.

[IBetYou]

Wowwee 50 years..

[WillyBoy]

In truth, it's closer to 60. Was, and still am, a Celtic fan since the 1950's.

The Knicks' tank show was full on today, allowing the Thunder to shoot 61% from the field, and OKL had a nice and easy practice session.

[IBetYou]

Tis' the season for the cellar dwellers to be tanking (winter that is). That's a fun way of doing things, betting on every single game on the board every single night. Not optimal though

[WillyBoy]

I bet a lot of games, but not all – which, I think, would be semi-crazy. I usually wait to make my bets until just before tip-off, to make sure that someone like Gregg Popovich isn’t going to rest all his starters. I also watch for last minute sharp’s betting like today on New Orleans, and follow that late money. My model’s “picks” are just a guide, not a guarantee by any means.

[IBetYou]

Hey no shit, you make a pick on almost every play on the board and they're not a guarantee to win

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]