[Richard Clock]

Hey guys, going to post my playoff wagers in the NBA portion of the forums. Had some success in last year's playoffs (Jazz as the dogs vs Clippers was a particularly profitable series), and I feel very good about my upcoming locked in plays. Here goes nothing. Things we want to focus on: combating recency/small sample bias (especially prevalent early in playoffs), trying to find unsustainable trends in previous games in order project value in future ones, getting the best historical price for a certain line, generally fading public betting teams, showing discipline to no bet in certain spots (often times, the best bet against a spread is no bet at all).

So far I have only made 2 bets on playoff games, both on underdogs (Pellies in Game 1 and Jazz in Game 1), and split those. Only issue was that I bumped up my betting size for the Jazz wager, so I am essentially even so far. I tend to lean towards betting on underdogs, and very rarely will bet the spread on a team that is giving a significant amount of points.



And here are my bets so far for the next 2 days.



I shared my thoughts on my Blazers bet (one I feel very good about) in Twizzle's thread. This bet checks a lot of boxes in terms of the "noise" and biases I try to combat when gambling on any sport. According to thespread.com, 67% of the market has been on the Pellies in Game 3, which is expected for a team coming off two road wins. Line opened at -3 and has since moved to 3 1/2, and even 4 in some places. I will be a little bothered if the book I use (5Dimes) makes +4 available, but I see enough value in the +3 1/2 that I am not going to fret too much.

Some of my general thoughts copied from Twizzle's thread:
"Line up to +3 1/2 on 5Dimes, so I am very happy to take the Blazers here. Blazers made some necessary adjustments to their minutes distribution last game (Harkless returning from injury at 27 mins played is HUGE for the Blazers strategically and because it displaces some of Turner's bad minutes, more Collins, less Nurkic/Turner, more Connaughton for spacing purposes). Blazers were victim to another poor shooting night for Lillard 1-7 in 3PA, and some unsustainable shooting for Pelicans (50% from 3 on 24 attempts). Lillard always has that potential for a blowup game, even with Holliday playing elite defense. Still, I don't necessarily think Lillard has to drop 40 for the Blazers to win this game outright.'

...and in response to some posters' concerns about AD being too dominant in this series:

"Keep hearing about how Davis is "unstoppable" in this matchup. In Game 2, the switch of Aminu to guard AD and cutting the minutes of Nurkic seemed to be effective (Anthony Davis only had 22 points on 50% shooting versus the 35 he dropped in Game 1). Anthony Davis is still one of the most statistically inconsistent superstars in the league (see David Locke's research) and always has the potential to pickup an injury or just generally play mediocre (by his standards). Additionally, his impact in clutch situations late in games is limited relative to other superstars since he doesn't bring the ball up (like Harden, Lebron, etc.) and therefore, needs other players to set him up to score rather than the other way around (see AD's clutch-time usage versus the other superstars). Point is, AD can still get "his" within reason and the Blazers can still win. The big question is will the streaky outside shooters in Rondo, Mirotic, Darius Miller continue to make those necessary outside shots at a high rate, and will Dame and CJ continue to struggle. At + 3 1/2, I am willing to gamble on the Blazers bouncing back and combating some of the recency bias floating around. PS, I don't trust Gentry either".

[Richard Clock]

Think I am going to stay away from Phi/Miami. Not sure how impactful Embiid will be coming off an injury. I will point out that this Sixers team is miles better with Embiid in the roster, so a Game 4 on the Sixers may be in the cards based on how he looks tonight. His ability as an elite defender/shot blocker and solid shot creator has been sorely missed in this series. The matchup in general feels volatile coming into Game 3 with the first 2 games being so screwy (the Sixers having unsustainable 3P shooting in Game 1, then ice cold shooting in Game 2, and the Heat getting unsustainable shotmaking from Wade and James Johnson in Game 2). I tend to think this line being between 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 is around where it should be. The public doesn't seem to be heavily on one side more than the other. A no bet is often times better than a bet.

As for Spurs/Warriors, my ears perk up a little with 75% of the market on Warriors in Game 3. Line has since moved up to 4 in some spots since it opened at 3 1/2. Hard to get too excited about this Spurs team, especially due to their lack of consistent shot creation and spacing with Kawhi. Still, this is the ultimate letdown spot for a square favorite. The Warriors are simply not as dominant a team without Curry, but it still may be enough to cover here. I haven't watched as many minutes of this serious, and again a no bet is probably best.

[Richard Clock]

Good call by those Pellies backers last night. AD was as impactful and as dominant as advertised, and perhaps I have given the Blazers (who I have ironically never been a fan of) a little too much credit in a potential bounce back spot. Can't get too down after a bad loss, every one is a learning experience.

I have an opportunity to get back close to even with the Celtics +6 1/2 tonight. The line has since moved to +5 on 5Dimes, so if anything, we at least deserve some credit for getting the Celtics spread at the best historical price. Whether that matters in what some are calling a potential blow up spot for the Bucks is another story. I discussed this bet in other threads, but I ultimately think this Bucks team is poorly coached and have been consistent disappointments throughout this season, so getting 6 and a half after dropping 2 straight games against a better coached and more versatile team like the Celts is probably giving the Bucks a little too much credit. Again, I acknowledge that this has square/trap potential, but I am willing to gamble that the better team at least covers.