[brewers7]

NBA Preview: The Utah Jazz will have to deal with The Game 7 Hangover Theory tonight against Golden State.

#5 Utah Jazz (55-34) at #1 Golden State Warriors (71-15), Tuesday, 10:30 p.m. EST

Line: Warriors -13.5. Total 206.5.

From a handicapping perspective, this game is interesting because of the Vegas line. The line opened at 13 points. That line has moved up 13.5 points. As a matter of fact, it looks like the line may rise to 14 points at some sportsbooks.

So we have a reverse line move happening because the bets coming in from the public are on Utah. The amount of bets currently placed on the Jazz sits at 56% based on the sportsbooks that pregame.com follows. The public perception is that this Vegas line is too high. Which is strange, because the Warriors have been a popular public team to bet on for at least three straight years now.

However, there are reasons why Vegas has set this line 13 points and why apparently some sharps may be pushing the line upwards.

First of all, not counting Utah’s 105-99 win at Golden State on April 10, the Warriors have dominated the Jazz at Oracle Arena the last four years. Both teams rested at least one starter that game because it was during the final week of the regular season.

The previous seven games at Oracle were all double-digit losses for Utah. Golden State’s margin of victory in those games were 30, 21, 18, 15, 13, 28 and 14 points.

Secondly, I posted a theory on forums more than 10 years ago that went like this:

“Checking on Brewers7's hypothesis in the NBA that you bet against a team in Game 1 of a series who just clinched their previous series with a Game 7 victory”.

I found the following data:

2016-17:
2015-16: 1-1
2014-15: 1-1
2013-14: 2-1
2012-13: 1-1
2011-12: 4-0
2010-11: 1-0
2009-10: 1-0
2008-09: 2-2
2007-08: 1-1
2006-07: 0-1
2005-06: 1-1
2004-05: 3-0
2003-04: 3-0
2002-03: 1-2
2001-02: 0-1
2000-01: 0-1
1999-00: 1-1
1998-99: 0-0
1997-98: 1-0
1996-97: 2-0
1995-96: 1-0
1994-95: 2-1
1993-94: 1-1
1992-93: 2-0
1991-92: 0-0
1990-91: 0-0
1989-90: 0-2
1988-89: 0-0
1987-88: 2-1
1986-87: 1-1
1985-86: 1-0

Last 31 years: 36-20 SU (Straight Up). 36-19-1 ATS (Against The Spread).

The reasoning is simple. This is a severe let-down situation for a team who expended a lot of energy in Game 7 to win the series. Not to mention having the series go seven games to begin with. Most of these games only have one day’s rest between the Game 7 clinching win and their Game 1 of the next series. Also, their opponent usually has at least three day rest.

Results are disregarded if two teams playing each other in a new series are both coming off a Game 7 clinching victory. I noticed online a couple years back that this theory has a name now. The theory is called, “The Game Seven Hangover Theory”.

Trust me when I say that part of the reason Vegas put this line out at 13 points is because of the Game Seven Hangover Theory.

Golden State did cover the spread in three of the four games against Portland in their first-round playoff series. The only game they did not cover during that sweep was Game 1, despite winning by 12. The Vegas line was 15 points for that game.

During the regular season there were three games played between these two teams. Stephen Curry averaged 26.3 points per game against Utah this season, while Kevin Durant average 19.7 points per game 3.7 assists per game and 4 rebounds per game. Draymond Green averaged 11 points per game, 4 assists per game and 8.3 rebounds per game. Finally, Klay Thompson averaged 13.5 points per game and 5.5 rebounds per game.

Matt Barnes is listed as probable for Golden State. Shaun Livingston is listed as questionable for the Warriors. Derrick Favors is listed as questionable for Game 2 for Utah.

I may have a pick on this game or the Wizards/Celtics game later today. If I do have a play, I will post it here at some point before the first game runs at 8 p.m. My Twitter handle is @brewers7 as I will occasionally throw the plays on there, too.

[brewers7]

Staying away from Golden State only because I have been a Dog player my whole life in the NBA and it is very hard for me to give 13 points here...

Going to the other series where I am going to take the home team because the home team is 5-0 (SU an ATS) in this head-to-head series this season...I am hoping Markieff Morris is ruled out...Line will go up slightly if he is not playing...


My pick:

Boston Celtics -5, laying $55 to win $50 (1/2 unit, small play).

GL.