1. 01-05-17 09:58 PM #1
    RetiredinPunta
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    NBA 4th quarter......killing most of my bets.

    After reaching 100th play of the NBA season so far (all point spreads) i am sitting at 54%. Its better than losing but i lost insane amount of game in the 4th quarter. If all games ended after 3rd quarter my hit rate would be whopping 74.5%. If i had played all games at half time lines my hit rate would be around 62%. 4th quarter never works in my favor, doesn't matter if i am on favorite or underdog.

    Same thing last season. Since last season, i am getting buried in the 4th quarter...

    Today I had Detroit -4.5 and Utah +5.5. Both looked very good until 4th quarter.
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  2. 01-05-17 10:47 PM #2
    gojetsgomoxies
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    those #'s are pretty amazing....

    u on bad teams, underdogs and/or road teams alot?... cause nba Q4 is huge for good teams and/or home teams.. it seems like the last 2 years that GSW is constantly having highly competitive games but then look at their record.
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  3. 01-05-17 11:00 PM #3
    ATOMICPUNK
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    I know what you mean. I had the Rockets -8. Looked good after the 3rd, but then the Rockets went cold in the 4th.
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  4. 01-05-17 11:21 PM #4
    RetiredinPunta
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    Quote Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies View Post
    those #'s are pretty amazing....

    u on bad teams, underdogs and/or road teams alot?... cause nba Q4 is huge for good teams and/or home teams.. it seems like the last 2 years that GSW is constantly having highly competitive games but then look at their record.
    Not just bad teams. It doesn't matter who i am on, last two years i get buried in the 4th quarter. If i am on a good team favorite, they go to sleep in the 4th quarter giving backdoor or sometimes losing straight up. If i am on the dog, the favorite will pull ahead in the 4th quarter. Its unreal!

    Another odd thing that is happening to me since last year is in NHL. Normally when i play odds worse than -110 in nhl, i will play reg time only at -0.5 spread which gives nicer odds. If i play the dog, i will play them including overtime moneyline. So when i play the favorite as -0.5 in reg time....happened 29 times so far this season. 20 of those freaking games went to overtime! 12 of the times my team won in over time/shootout and 8 times it lost. But for me all 20 were losers since its -0.5 in reg time. Fortunately my dog plays are doing well to show small profit in nhl overall. But its ridiculous how almost every game that i pick as -0.5 reg time goes to over time. last year it happened around similar clip.

    It feels like its getting hard and the results are so random. capping gotten so hard. i used to do well in these sports in these sports. now i only have good edge in college football. nba and nhl used to be so easy for me but not the results seem more arbitory and impossible to cap.
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  5. 01-05-17 11:24 PM #5
    vegaschulo
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    I know all about it..the other night i had nuggets(-4.5) at clippers paul was out..i had the nuggets..nugs was up by 17 at the half..then at the 4th clips tied it up..nuggets won by 4 SMH..KILLED by the hook LOL..
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  6. 01-05-17 11:37 PM #6
    freeVICK
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    I had detroit too
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  7. 01-06-17 12:12 AM #7
    kgindy
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    Yeah I've been killing 1Q and 1H I rarely do full game anymore. In college had UCLA and got lucky I bought 1/2 PT. How can you be up 22 with 6 mins left and you are in the double bonus and can't cover 10.5 smh.
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  8. 01-06-17 08:48 PM #8
    RetiredinPunta
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    And got buried again in the 4th quarter. My minnesota +5 looked great going into 4th quarter but got buried.
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  9. 01-06-17 09:09 PM #9
    mohye1980
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    Quote Originally Posted by RetiredinPunta View Post
    And got buried again in the 4th quarter. My minnesota +5 looked great going into 4th quarter but got buried.
    Minnesota is one of the worst 4th quarter teams in the nba especially on the road. Wizards +135 start of the 4q was a steal.
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  10. 01-08-17 07:29 PM #10
    RetiredinPunta
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    Raptors +2.5 and moneyline today looked good from the beginning and got screwed for me.

    I had 3 nba bets. raptors, phoenix +8.5 and Lakers -2.

    Lets see if my 4th quarter burial continues. i have 2 units on lakers.
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  11. 01-08-17 07:45 PM #11
    mohye1980
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    Quote Originally Posted by RetiredinPunta View Post
    Raptors +2.5 and moneyline today looked good from the beginning and got screwed for me.

    I had 3 nba bets. raptors, phoenix +8.5 and Lakers -2.

    Lets see if my 4th quarter burial continues. i have 2 units on lakers.
    You know the raptors played an overtime game last night right? Legs have to give out eventually.
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  12. 01-08-17 07:52 PM #12
    jsdjason
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    Quote Originally Posted by mohye1980 View Post
    You know the raptors played an overtime game last night right? Legs have to give out eventually.
    Rockets are now 26-13 ATS. Vegas still doesn't realize they are a juggernaut.
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  13. 01-08-17 08:51 PM #13
    TimeTraveler75
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    Quote Originally Posted by jsdjason View Post
    Rockets are now 26-13 ATS. Vegas still doesn't realize they are a juggernaut.
    They do realize it, but they go off of the perspective and thinking of the general public, take a look at Gonzaga for college basketball, i think they are something like 15-0 ATS
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  14. 01-09-17 01:08 AM #14
    JTrain
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    Quote Originally Posted by RetiredinPunta View Post
    If all games ended after 3rd quarter my hit rate would be whopping 74.5%.
    If all games ended after 3, my unders would be 99%.
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  15. 01-09-17 01:29 AM #15
    JTrain
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    Do you track your plays here? We can all fade you 4Q
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