Decided to post some leans on tonights NBA games and hopefully lure some of you guys into sharing your own oppinions on it.
Pacers-Hornets +3.5/206.5 Little bit in the dark here. Spread line looks solid. Not really excited to take the points with Indiana with the way they are playing defense and quite mediocre bench play. Total might be bit off. I made it 209, so obviously I am leaning over here. as I mentioned, Indiana doesn't really defend that well. They have 5 capable shooters in starting lineup and they are not afraid to use them as soon as opportunity presents. hornets without Hibbert and Marvin Williams (questionable) playing at PF has a bit smaller lineup which can get up and down the floor.
Houston-Washington +1.5/216.5 Leaning towards Rockets here. Made them 1 point favorite, so obviously getting value taking them as underdogs. Main reason is that I find Wizards being mediocre at best. Houston will insert Corey Brewer into starting lineup to guard john Wall, which I think is a good gameplan. Similar to Portland, that starting backcourt (Wall-Beal) is very important to get Washington going. Having quality defender like Brewer on Wall will slow down Wizards offense and that way they will have tough time to keep up with Harden's scoring on the other side.
Total for Rockets game is regular around 216-217 like today. maybe little value on under with Brewer starting over Gordon, but I'm letting that one go.
Utah-Philadelphia -6.5/193 George Hill questionable tonight after injuring his thumb against the Knicks. I wouldn't be surprised if they decide to rest him if he is not at 100%. Problem for Utah is that both Dante Exum and Shelvin Mack are big dropoff from Hill in that important PG position. And as important as Hayward is for this team, his return might hurt them short-term, because he is taking 20 shots per game and it was obvious against the Knicks that he is rusty. Looking at the scheduling, it's just so easy to overlook this unimportant game agastin the Sixers in the middle of your roda trip.
Over might also be worth of a look. Especially if Hill is out. Exum much more willing to push the tempo and make his team play transiton offense more.
Leans: Philadelphia +6.5 and over 193 (both if Hill is out)
Oh yeah I saw that thumb injury, he slapped the ball away on defense, and then it may have been rose
reacted and hit his thumb, perhaps he jammed the thumb on the right hand,
Hayward got his points at the line, was like 14 of 14
Mack is playing pretty well, Jazz do a good job of not turning it over
Washington runs ugly sets and wall dribbles too much, and slows the pace down in the half court
not saying Mack played bad. I actually like both him and Exum. But you gotta agree it will be hard to match Hill's level, the way he was playing since the start of the season.
Appreciate your input in this thread. Great to hear some different oppinions
Miami-Oklahoma +5.5/203 not gonna actually bet this one, but I'm leaning OKC for some strange reasons. Whiteside forcing it a little bit too much on offense. Trying to be Hakeem and that's not his game. Also losing a lot of energy on trash talking and going back n forth with opposing players. he might struggle against a solid defensive center like Adams. Their shooting is inconsistant. Babbit and Winslow should be hitting those outside shots after kick out passes, but they are not doing it good enough atm. Waiters was surprisingly disciplined (for me) on offense so far, but he might be too fired up to stick it to his ex team tonight. And once they start doing that 1 on 5 sh*t and not let Dragic run the offense, they are doomed.
Orlando-Chicago +7/198.5 as i wrote in some other thread, there is not much to like about Orlando at the moment. biyombo's return help them on defense, but he took minutes from vucevic, who is their best offensive player. Win some, lose some situation. Bulls did lose couple of consecutive games, but I am not that worried. They hung in their in Boston, against a very good Celtics team. Got caught off guard against the fired up Rose and Noah returnig home with the Knicks. And then they just had no energy left in 2nd b2b game against Indiana.
This is team that plays fast and has some very capable shooter in 2nd unit (Canaan, Mirotic, McDermot). So, despite Orlando tightning their defense lately, this line is too low.
Detroit-La Clippers +8.5/198
Just one of those games where contender like Clippers could be caught sleeping, imho. This game means nothing to them, after stomping the Spurs and probably feeling very good about themselves. But, they should be aware of this decent Pistons team. backups will be crucial for this cover, imho. Beno Udrih is running Pistons 2nd unit so well that I think they might even have the edge over Clippers there.
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