[Don_Omarion]

I think they must win tonight but -1 only ?? after the huge performance they did in TOR ? losing by 3 and scoring 3 at last second but Refs did not count it ??

they should have won that past game

thought they will be -3 at least tonight

thoughts ???

[Gooleez21]

Being mentally crushed after last game might be worth the 2 pts.

[Don_Omarion]

Being mentally crushed after last game might be worth the 2 pts.

man I like Pacers ML too much but do not feel good , do not know why

[Git Lo]

How could this be a trap? are you suggesting a script or something?

[iloseagain]

They were +1.5 and +1 in their other 2 home games. Whats the issue here?

[Don_Omarion]

How could this be a trap? are you suggesting a script or something?

I do not know man honestly , I thought they will be -3 at least but only -1,5 ? it is strange

whatever , Iam leaning Pacers ML here

[Hu$tle]

Raptors +110 Series 4-2
Raptors +110 Series 4-3

Books think they win 1 of the next two but which one??

[WalkingLuckCharm]

This series goes to 7. Drake putting Toronto under pressure bank it

[iloseagain]

Don, in NBA, there is about a 6 point swing from home to away.. Whenever the swing is MORE, take it. Atl was home -6, then in game 3 and 4, bos was -2 and -3.. 8 and 9 point swing.. what happened? bos covered both.

raps were -7 or -7.5 at home and now indy is -2.. 9 point swing.. whats gonna happen? indy will cover

[Don_Omarion]

Don, in NBA, there is about a 6 point swing from home to away.. Whenever the swing is MORE, take it. Atl was home -6, then in game 3 and 4, bos was -2 and -3.. 8 and 9 point swing.. what happened? bos covered both.

raps were -7 or -7.5 at home and now indy is -2.. 9 point swing.. whats gonna happen? indy will cover

this is not a blind rule to bet on NBA , man .. I will take the ML of pacers but I do not feel good , do not know why

[iloseagain]

this is not a blind rule to bet on NBA , man .. I will take the ML of pacers but I do not feel good , do not know why

its certainly not a blind rule, but it hasnt lost since ive started seeing it.. you have to read into the story that vegas is telling you. Just like hawks -3 tonight. I mean cmon, how can you be so dumb to take the bait on the celts tonight.. At HOME getting 3 points, when they won the last 2 at home straight up???

[iloseagain]

im still not sure why you think pacers should be -3 here... they won game 1, as 7 point dogs.. What did you think the spread for game 2 should have been? raps -4 because of the fact they lost game 1??

[Killer2121]

I'm ignoring all of these trends and going huge on Raptors moneyline.

[iloseagain]

I'm ignoring all of these trends and going huge on Raptors moneyline.

you took boston too didnt you?

[Don_Omarion]

its certainly not a blind rule, but it hasnt lost since ive started seeing it.. you have to read into the story that vegas is telling you. Just like hawks -3 tonight. I mean cmon, how can you be so dumb to take the bait on the celts tonight.. At HOME getting 3 points, when they won the last 2 at home straight up???

I would go with Hawks because of their performance last game not because the points story , honestly

but I appreciate your opinion and Iam sure you are doing well this play-offs due to using this system

but to be honest , If i like Pacers today , I do that because of their performance last match not because the -2 .. I never lost ML play depend on performance of the team since 2013

so I expected to see -3 at least , when my book opened it -1,5 I was shocked but I like their ML

[Don_Omarion]

im still not sure why you think pacers should be -3 here... they won game 1, as 7 point dogs.. What did you think the spread for game 2 should have been? raps -4 because of the fact they lost game 1??

nah man , I went with my all bet365 bonus on Raptors ML @ game 2 @+100

it is just a feeling due to performance nothing else , and you have experience more than me

[iloseagain]

nah man , I went with my all bet365 bonus on Raptors ML @ game 2 @+100

it is just a feeling due to performance nothing else , and you have experience more than me

raptors in game 2 were certainly not +100 on the ML... They were -7.5 in game 2 at home...

Betting based on previous game performance will get you killed. Dallas in game 2 @ OKC, WON as 13 pt dogs. Game 3 @ Dal, Okc won by like 30. In your scenario, youd be betting on dallas +9 at home... Hawks game 2 @ home, were -6 and won by like 17.. Now it was game 3 @ Boston and hawks were +3!! They got smoked.

Betting is much more about the lines than previous game performance. Alot of times, previous game performance will tell you to bet the opposite way in the next game. IE, Heat in first 2 games shot like 65-70%. Third game goes to Charlotte and Cha is like -3, after being 5 pt dogs @ Mia and getting SMOKED both times. If you were betting on previous game performance, youd take heat plus the points in game 3.. Woulda good killed there as well, Cha won by like 18. Regardless if I'm a good or bad bettor, i know some stuff about lines and betting. Betting is SOOOOO much more than previous game performance. And trust me, my name is "iloseagain" for a reason, so im not saying im the all-knowing bettor, but this NBA playoffs i have basically been betting completely off of the spreads and have absolutely been crushing it. Im on the Pacers too, so GL to us

[Git Lo]

Pacers have to win at home as a lower seed
Heat have to win away as a higher seed
hmm

[iloseagain]

Pacers have to win at home as a lower seed
Heat have to win away as a higher seed
hmm

I also like heat in that game based on spread.. In games 3 and 4, they were +2.5 to +3.5. Now, they just lost at home as -6 point favs, and they are suddenly +1.5 or +2??? I know this line jumps about 8 points as well, but its awfully weird the spread is LOWER than the last 2 games the Heat were on the road. They are inviting money on the Hornets after last games performance. Heat win.

I guarantee that the Pacers line goes up to -3 or -3.5 or maybe even -4. They are begging for money on the Raptors here and are doing all they can to make it happen. Pacers win easy

[Killer2121]

you took boston too didnt you?

I actually took Atlanta and the Under.

[Don_Omarion]

raptors in game 2 were certainly not +100 on the ML... They were -7.5 in game 2 at home...

Betting based on previous game performance will get you killed. Dallas in game 2 @ OKC, WON as 13 pt dogs. Game 3 @ Dal, Okc won by like 30. In your scenario, youd be betting on dallas +9 at home... Hawks game 2 @ home, were -6 and won by like 17.. Now it was game 3 @ Boston and hawks were +3!! They got smoked.

Betting is much more about the lines than previous game performance. Alot of times, previous game performance will tell you to bet the opposite way in the next game. IE, Heat in first 2 games shot like 65-70%. Third game goes to Charlotte and Cha is like -3, after being 5 pt dogs @ Mia and getting SMOKED both times. If you were betting on previous game performance, youd take heat plus the points in game 3.. Woulda good killed there as well, Cha won by like 18. Regardless if I'm a good or bad bettor, i know some stuff about lines and betting. Betting is SOOOOO much more than previous game performance. And trust me, my name is "iloseagain" for a reason, so im not saying im the all-knowing bettor, but this NBA playoffs i have basically been betting completely off of the spreads and have absolutely been crushing it. Im on the Pacers too, so GL to us

appreciate your words so much man , we all here to win

but I meant by performance here back-to-back games

whatever trust me I like pacers here and 1st one who made thread about taking them but I just wanted to be sure because I feel bad when I lost by team at home lol XD

oh and I meant game 3 @ Indiana when TOR was +100 not game 2

anyway , best of luck to all of us here IMO

[Killer2121]

raptors in game 2 were certainly not +100 on the ML... They were -7.5 in game 2 at home...

Betting based on previous game performance will get you killed. Dallas in game 2 @ OKC, WON as 13 pt dogs. Game 3 @ Dal, Okc won by like 30. In your scenario, youd be betting on dallas +9 at home... Hawks game 2 @ home, were -6 and won by like 17.. Now it was game 3 @ Boston and hawks were +3!! They got smoked.

Betting is much more about the lines than previous game performance. Alot of times, previous game performance will tell you to bet the opposite way in the next game. IE, Heat in first 2 games shot like 65-70%. Third game goes to Charlotte and Cha is like -3, after being 5 pt dogs @ Mia and getting SMOKED both times. If you were betting on previous game performance, youd take heat plus the points in game 3.. Woulda good killed there as well, Cha won by like 18. Regardless if I'm a good or bad bettor, i know some stuff about lines and betting. Betting is SOOOOO much more than previous game performance. And trust me, my name is "iloseagain" for a reason, so im not saying im the all-knowing bettor, but this NBA playoffs i have basically been betting completely off of the spreads and have absolutely been crushing it. Im on the Pacers too, so GL to us

I love your analysis and I've seen your plays... I just can't see the Raptors losing this game. Lowry can't possibly play thhis bad for 6 straight games (compared to his usual self). They're also on the brink of advancing for the first time in over a decade. I don't see them letting this slip, although it is the Raptors... My head says Raptors but my gut says Indy.

[iloseagain]

I actually took Atlanta and the Under.

okay good. me too

I love your analysis and I've seen your plays... I just can't see the Raptors losing this game. Lowry can't possibly play thhis bad for 6 straight games (compared to his usual self). They're also on the brink of advancing for the first time in over a decade. I don't see them letting this slip, although it is the Raptors... My head says Indiana but my gut says Indy.

vegas seems to have other plans. Just explain to yourself why indy is all of a sudden -2.5 when they were +1 and +1.5 last 2 home games. In game 3 (their first home game), they were +1.5. They got smoked in game 3 and game 4 they were +1.. Yea, only half point difference from game to game, but why on earth are they a SMALLER dog after getting smoked in their first home game??? I took Indy in game 4 (i didnt touch game 3), and they won easy. This line makes as much sense as Atl tonight. Take Indy and trust me.

[Don_Omarion]

last time I bet against TOR they won by Double Digits over Celtics ... month ago .. so Iam afraid to do it again

[Killer2121]

okay good. me too

vegas seems to have other plans. Just explain to yourself why indy is all of a sudden -2.5 when they were +1 and +1.5 last 2 home games. In game 3 (their first home game), they were +1.5. They got smoked in game 3 and game 4 they were +1.. Yea, only half point difference from game to game, but why on earth are they a SMALLER dog after getting smoked in their first home game??? I took Indy in game 4 (i didnt touch game 3), and they won easy. This line makes as much sense as Atl tonight. Take Indy and trust me.

I will most likely sleep on it and decide. I'll try not to succumb to the playoff fever here in Toronto

[Git Lo]

Neither team seems that good I mean #2 struggling first round.. Yeah vegas is inviting raps but doesn't mean they will lose. Best players for raps has been Val and corey joseph if im not mistaking.. honestly what if lowry and derozan wake up? PG is literally carrying his team more than any one player carrying their team BY FAR

[Don_Omarion]

Neither team seems that good I mean #2 struggling first round.. Yeah vegas is inviting raps but doesn't mean they will lose. Best players for raps has been Val and corey joseph if im not mistaking.. honestly what if lowry and derozan wake up? PG is literally carrying his team more than any one player carrying their team BY FAR

exactly my point !

[f1ori5]

Neither team seems that good I mean #2 struggling first round.. Yeah vegas is inviting raps but doesn't mean they will lose. Best players for raps has been Val and corey joseph if im not mistaking.. honestly what if lowry and derozan wake up? PG is literally carrying his team more than any one player carrying their team BY FAR

They might wake up but why havent they so far? I guess because they have issues losing those last 2 years and this being a bumpy series with them coming from #2 seed. Corey performed well because he has playoff experience with the spurs. I am not saying that indiana has an experienced group regarding the playoffs but Paul George, Monta Ellis and George Hill at least have some knowledge about it. The pressure is on Raptors again and I think that they are not mentally prepared to be consistent. We ll see that in a game 7 perhaps. And don't forget about Drake s cheering during and after the game) Players, especially the ones like Paul George, don't appreciate it.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

I'm ignoring all of these trends and going huge on Raptors moneyline.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

parlay all the home spreads for tomorrow's game

[PorkChop]

Closing my eyes and taking the Under.

[Jupiter333]

Agree on your points about analyzing lines and understanding what Vegas is trying to entice you to do and doing the opposite. Look at opening lines that Vegas puts out. And then, see what happens to the line afterwards.....about four days ago I checked on how the public had done in the NBA (and NHL) playoffs using covers consensus. The public was 15-27 (totals and sides on >=57%) in the NBA and slightly positive in the NHL which obviously means the public is getting pulverized in the NBA and doing average in the NHL. One reason the NBA public is getting crushed is that if the public has a strong opinion on a total, they always pick over and unders are hitting over 70% so far this year.

The idea of value as a betting proposition is flawed....Vegas creates value to entice your money.

It's like the store that has crummy suits that aren't selling....they mark them down 50%, so people think they get "value" on a crappy piece of clothing that they wouldn't buy under normal circumstances. The female race falls for it every time in the retail industry, and bettors fall for it in the financial marketplace.